Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday evening into early morning Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains. Large hail should be the predominant hazard. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level jetlet will eject through the basal portion of a broad trough over the West. This should overspread the southern Rockies into the central High Plains by Sunday night. Primary surface cyclone will diurnally deepen over the central High Plains, with a secondary low downstream of the Bighorn Mountains. The primary low will advance northeast into the central SD vicinity by 12Z Monday. A north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline will extend through the southern High Plains. ...Northern Great Plains to NE... Large-scale ascent will be focused across this region, especially Sunday evening/night as mid-level height falls/upper-level diffluence increase ahead of the approaching trough/jet streak. Two corridors of initial storm development are apparent by early evening, centered on the NE Panhandle and southeast MT, just ahead of the aforementioned surface lows. Rich low-level moisture will likely remain displaced to the southeast of both regions, but adequate moisture should be present for a few supercells with low-level southeasterlies beneath strengthening southwesterly mid/upper winds. The breadth of the uncapped warm-moist sector will be confined though and convection will likely become predominately elevated Sunday night. However, increasing convective coverage is anticipated within the exit region of a strong low-level jet nosing into the Mid-MO Valley. Large hail should be the overarching threat, with a mixed wind/hail threat possibly evolving amid signals of a linear cluster into western/central SD. ...KS to west TX... A very conditional severe threat will extend along the dryline. A plume of large buoyancy coincident with a supercell wind profile will exist from northwest TX into western KS. Forcing for ascent, outside of a weakly retreating dryline circulation, is nebulous. Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be around 10 percent or less, outside of the TX Big Bend during the late afternoon and evening. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 1 Update... Latest model consensus continues to indicate a broad fire weather threat across portions of the Southwest today. Expected meteorological conditions supports expansion of Critical highlights well into portions of northeast Arizona. However, fuels are undergoing green-up transition across the Four Corners area which should act to mitigate significant wildfire spread, although Elevated highlights were expanded northward into southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado to capture the overall fire environment concern. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025 Read more