Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough (and associated southwesterly mid-level flow) is forecast to be over central California by the early evening, with a surface low centered over the Great Basin. Deep boundary layer mixing beneath the mid-level jet, in combination with a surface low to the north, will result in Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and Arizona. ...West-central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... 20-25 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are forecast over much of western New Mexico into Eastern Arizona, but most of the receptive fuels (based on ERC percentiles) are confined to central and southern New Mexico. Therefore, only a relatively small area of Critical highlights are forecast where meteorological conditions and fuels exceeding the 80th annual percentile overlap. ..Halbert.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. This dryline will extend from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend on Sunday afternoon. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show significant inhibition along the dryline in the southern High Plains with lesser inhibition with increasing latitude. Weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation could support isolated supercell development along the dryline from southwest Kansas southward. A favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop within this region, but coverage concerns preclude a greater categorical risk at this time. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing and weaker inhibition. At least a few supercells are likely from northern Kansas across Nebraska and perhaps into far southern South Dakota Sunday evening with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Hodographs will be relatively small during the evening, but once the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, hodographs will enlarge quite rapidly with increasing low-level shear in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe. However, storm longevity and intensity after sunset remains questionable as forecast soundings show strong inhibition across much of the open warm sector. Therefore, any supercells which develop, may mostly exist prior to the strengthening low-level shear. Therefore, only 2 percent tornado probabilities are warranted at this time despite a considerably higher conditional threat. Scattered thunderstorms capable of large hail are expected to develop late Sunday evening and into the overnight hours along and north of the warm front as isentropic ascent strengthens with the associated strengthening low-level jet. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND ALSO FOR PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible later today across parts of the southern High Plains into the ArkLaTex region, and also across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward into the Southwest later today, while another midlevel cyclone and related shortwave trough move southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A surface cyclone attendant to the Northeast system will move eastward across New England, as a trailing cold front moves through the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Extensive convection is expected overnight into the early part of the forecast period this morning, from the TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity into southwest OK. Evolution of this convection and related outflow remains uncertain, though the majority of guidance suggests that an MCV will develop from this preceding convection and move eastward across OK through the day. Meanwhile, a cold front will move southward across OK during the morning, before stalling and beginning to move northward as a warm front later in the period. Storm intensification and/or redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon, potentially aided by the eastward-moving MCV. Near/south of the front, relatively rich low-level moisture may support moderate destabilization by afternoon. Generally veering wind profiles are expected from parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex, though the strength of low/midlevel flow and size/length of hodographs will depend on the vigor of any MCV that moves across the region. An organized severe threat with some threat for all severe hazards could develop if a well-defined MCV favorably interacts with returning low-level moisture near the front. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward in response to this potential scenario. Farther southwest, isolated to widely scattered diurnal storm development will be possible near the remnant outflow boundary somewhere across west/southwest TX, and also within the post-frontal regime closer to the higher terrain of NM/CO. Coverage of storms across these areas remains uncertain in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, but isolated supercell development will again be possible, with at least a localized threat of large hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Greater probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in locally greater supercell coverage across part of this region. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... Weak to moderate destabilization will be possible this afternoon across the Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas, and at least widely scattered storm development will be possible along/ahead of the advancing cold front. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. The magnitude of diurnal heating and destabilization remains somewhat uncertain, but locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert.. 04/26/2025 Read more