Severe Storms

WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-252340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-243-301-371-389-475-495-252340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 172 TORNADO NM TX 251855Z - 260300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening. Once storms develop, the stronger storms will likely evolve into intense supercells capable of large to giant hail. The risk for tornadoes will probably maximize late this afternoon into the evening as low-level winds strengthen. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Cannon Afb NM to 25 miles northeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27010. ...Smith Read more

MD 0561 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173... FOR THE TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173... Valid 252044Z - 252215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 continues. SUMMARY...A localized very large hail threat should be confined to the Trans-Pecos and adjacent Pecos Valley into early evening. DISCUSSION...A slow-moving supercell has been drifting east, west of Fort Stockton. Additional storm-development appears likely to be delayed until early evening or later based on recent visible satellite and HRRR trends. 19Z observed sounding at Midland sampled weak 0-3 km shear/SRH, limiting low-level hodograph curvature. Still, adequate speed shear through the buoyancy layer will support large to very large hail potential with the supercell or two that anchor near the higher terrain. As low-level southeasterlies increase in the next few hours, additional storms may develop north into far southeast NM. ..Grams.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 31580316 30880275 30640291 30650345 30720392 31170423 31980430 31860343 31580316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z A potent upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet will shift into the Southwest U.S. for Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. This will bring a broad fire weather threat to eastern Arizona and much of New Mexico, potentially into southeastern Colorado as well depending on rainfall distribution and fuels by Day 3/Sunday. Another upper-level trough and subsequent post frontal offshore flow could bring a fire weather threat to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 3/Sunday, but fuels should be tamed by expected preceding rainfall. Dry and isolated breezy conditions will persist across the Southwest through Day 8/Friday, but growing ensemble member spread and increasing uncertainty precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - New Mexico and adjacent High Plains... The primary fire weather concern remains over eastern Arizona into New Mexico for early next week. Mostly cloud free skies coincident with the arrival of a mid-level jet max should contribute to efficient boundary-layer turbulent mixing, with surface winds from the southwest approaching 30 mph in parts of southern and central New Mexico. The gusty surface winds combined with relative humidity below 10 percent in many locations should contribute to critical fire weather conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Critical probabilities of 70 percent were maintained as certainty remains high for this event. The upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow shift eastward for Day 4/Monday. The subsequent fire weather threat should be more confined to southeastern New Mexico and far West Texas where 40 percent Critical probabilities were introduced. ...Florida... Very dry fuels persist across the Florida Peninsula. East-southeast winds will remain light enough to preclude Critical probabilities. A cold front is expected to bring some, at least temporary, relief to dry fuels from rainfall on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday. However, the spotty convective rainfall could leave a few dry areas across the state, particularly the southern Florida Peninsula. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-252240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-243-301-371-389-475-495-252240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-252240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-101-107-117-125-129-153-155-165- 169-189-191-219-269-275-279-303-305-345-359-369-375-381-437-445- 501-252240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD FOARD GAINES GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING KNOX LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM Read more