Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

MD 0558 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS
Mesoscale Discussion 0558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 251744Z - 251945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few splitting supercells should develop by late afternoon. Large hail to around baseball size will be the primary threat. A tornado or two is also possible in the early evening. DISCUSSION...Incipient Cbs are forming over the Davis Mountains within the gradient of rich low-level moisture across much of west TX. These cells should become sustained in the next hour but may initially remain anchored to the terrain with still moderate MLCIN over the Pecos Valley. But by late afternoon, storms should propagate off the terrain as MLCIN is minimized. Weak low-level flow initially is yielding a nearly straight-line hodograph with increasing speed shear within the buoyancy layer. Most CAM guidance has signaled a predominant splitting supercell scenario with left-movers accelerating north-northeastward. Given this along with a more mixed environment relative to farther north, very large hail and localized severe gusts may be the primary hazards. Overall storm coverage should be isolated but may develop off the Sacramento Mountains as well, especially as a west TX low-level jet strengthens in the early evening. This could also support potential for a tornado or two. ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 30180384 30230317 30570269 31300228 31940213 32380223 32660242 32650294 32940363 32850422 32240436 30440453 30180384 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0173 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Synopsis... Continued eastward progression of the western U.S. upper low/trough will occur Sunday. Eventually, this trough will begin to displace persistent central U.S. upper ridging, with the first effects -- in the form height falls -- spreading gradually across the Plains Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Ahead of the trough, a cold front crossing the western U.S. will begin to emerge into the Plains, trailing southwestward from a low shifting gradually into/across the Nebraska vicinity. By the end of the period, this front should extend from the Mid Missouri Valley south-southwestward to West Texas. ...The Plains... Low-level moistening spreading northward across the Plains in advance of the approaching front will combine with daytime heating to result in moderate pre-frontal destabilization. The effects of ridging-induced subsidence -- in the form of boundary-layer capping -- will persist through much of the day, hindering more widespread development of diurnal storms. By late afternoon/early evening however, isolated storm development is expected, likely most widespread across the Nebraska vicinity just ahead of the surface low shifting into the region. Here, increasing mid-level flow atop low-level southerlies will provide sufficient shear for a few severe/rotating storms, likely accompanied by an all-hazards severe risk. Farther south along the advancing front, storms should remain much more isolated, but would likely pose local severe risk given a thermodynamic and kinematic environment that would support organized/rotating storms. Overnight, an increasing southerly low-level jet -- and associated warm advection across the Dakotas atop the warm front -- should sustain late-period storms, and at least some severe risk. ..Goss.. 04/25/2025 Read more