Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into Kansas. The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday will be from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ...Day 5/Tue - Southern Plains to parts of the Northeast... The surface low associated with the Day 4 threat will continue northeast and bring its associated cold front eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of this front from northern New York to the Ohio Valley. Much of the frontal zone should have sufficient shear to support multiple storm clusters and the potential for a few supercells. Day 6/Wed-Day8/Fri - Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A weaker mid-level shortwave trough is consistently depicted by extended range guidance by the middle of next week across the southern Plains. However, significant uncertainty remains about the strength of this trough and location of any frontal zones. In addition, convection across the southern Plains each day of the extended range forecast could significantly impact destabilization by Day 6-8. Therefore, confidence is not high enough to add probabilities at this time, but they may eventually be needed somewhere across the Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into Kansas. The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday will be from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ...Day 5/Tue - Southern Plains to parts of the Northeast... The surface low associated with the Day 4 threat will continue northeast and bring its associated cold front eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of this front from northern New York to the Ohio Valley. Much of the frontal zone should have sufficient shear to support multiple storm clusters and the potential for a few supercells. Day 6/Wed-Day8/Fri - Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A weaker mid-level shortwave trough is consistently depicted by extended range guidance by the middle of next week across the southern Plains. However, significant uncertainty remains about the strength of this trough and location of any frontal zones. In addition, convection across the southern Plains each day of the extended range forecast could significantly impact destabilization by Day 6-8. Therefore, confidence is not high enough to add probabilities at this time, but they may eventually be needed somewhere across the Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into Kansas. The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday will be from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ...Day 5/Tue - Southern Plains to parts of the Northeast... The surface low associated with the Day 4 threat will continue northeast and bring its associated cold front eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of this front from northern New York to the Ohio Valley. Much of the frontal zone should have sufficient shear to support multiple storm clusters and the potential for a few supercells. Day 6/Wed-Day8/Fri - Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A weaker mid-level shortwave trough is consistently depicted by extended range guidance by the middle of next week across the southern Plains. However, significant uncertainty remains about the strength of this trough and location of any frontal zones. In addition, convection across the southern Plains each day of the extended range forecast could significantly impact destabilization by Day 6-8. Therefore, confidence is not high enough to add probabilities at this time, but they may eventually be needed somewhere across the Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. As this occurs, a surface low will deepen and move from the northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly lower tropospheric flow will advect high theta-e air northward across the Midwest and into parts of the Upper Midwest. Broken to scattered cloudcover will support surface heating and strong destabilization across the warm sector from southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin to the southern Plains. Isolated to scattered supercells are likely along the dryline which will extend from the southern Plains and into Kansas. The greatest focus for severe weather on Monday will be from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri, much of Iowa and into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Moderate to strong instability, strong shear, and increasing forcing for ascent supports the potential for numerous rounds of severe thunderstorms. The wind profile supports supercells capable of all severe weather hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes. ...Day 5/Tue - Southern Plains to parts of the Northeast... The surface low associated with the Day 4 threat will continue northeast and bring its associated cold front eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes through the day Tuesday. Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of this front from northern New York to the Ohio Valley. Much of the frontal zone should have sufficient shear to support multiple storm clusters and the potential for a few supercells. Day 6/Wed-Day8/Fri - Portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A weaker mid-level shortwave trough is consistently depicted by extended range guidance by the middle of next week across the southern Plains. However, significant uncertainty remains about the strength of this trough and location of any frontal zones. In addition, convection across the southern Plains each day of the extended range forecast could significantly impact destabilization by Day 6-8. Therefore, confidence is not high enough to add probabilities at this time, but they may eventually be needed somewhere across the Southeast/Mid Mississippi Valley. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. Forecast guidance is consistent showing a sharp dryline extending from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass along the entirety of the dryline. Therefore, weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation will likely be sufficient for at least isolated supercell development along the dryline. At this time, storm coverage appears too sparse to support greater probabilities, but a favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing. A slight risk has been introduced across portions of central Nebraska into southern South Dakota where the greatest potential for late afternoon/evening supercell development exists. As the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, more widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the warm front across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota Sunday night. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. Forecast guidance is consistent showing a sharp dryline extending from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass along the entirety of the dryline. Therefore, weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation will likely be sufficient for at least isolated supercell development along the dryline. At this time, storm coverage appears too sparse to support greater probabilities, but a favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing. A slight risk has been introduced across portions of central Nebraska into southern South Dakota where the greatest potential for late afternoon/evening supercell development exists. As the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, more widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the warm front across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota Sunday night. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. Forecast guidance is consistent showing a sharp dryline extending from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass along the entirety of the dryline. Therefore, weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation will likely be sufficient for at least isolated supercell development along the dryline. At this time, storm coverage appears too sparse to support greater probabilities, but a favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing. A slight risk has been introduced across portions of central Nebraska into southern South Dakota where the greatest potential for late afternoon/evening supercell development exists. As the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, more widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the warm front across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota Sunday night. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. Forecast guidance is consistent showing a sharp dryline extending from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass along the entirety of the dryline. Therefore, weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation will likely be sufficient for at least isolated supercell development along the dryline. At this time, storm coverage appears too sparse to support greater probabilities, but a favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing. A slight risk has been introduced across portions of central Nebraska into southern South Dakota where the greatest potential for late afternoon/evening supercell development exists. As the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, more widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the warm front across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota Sunday night. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across the southern High Plains and central Plains Sunday afternoon/evening. Scattered severe storms are possible across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday evening/night. ...Discussion... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will extend from the Southwest and into the Central Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough advances eastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs, a strong surface cyclone will develop in the central High Plains/northern Plains. This strengthening cyclone will draw richer low-level moisture into the northern Plains while a dryline sharpens across the High Plains. Forecast guidance is consistent showing a sharp dryline extending from southwest Nebraska southward to the Texas Big Bend. Mid to upper 60s dewpoints east of this dryline and strong heating will support moderate to strong instability by Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass along the entirety of the dryline. Therefore, weak height falls and a sharp dryline circulation will likely be sufficient for at least isolated supercell development along the dryline. At this time, storm coverage appears too sparse to support greater probabilities, but a favorable environment will support a conditional threat for all severe weather hazards wherever supercells can develop. Farther north, near the surface low, storm coverage probabilities increase due to stronger forcing. A slight risk has been introduced across portions of central Nebraska into southern South Dakota where the greatest potential for late afternoon/evening supercell development exists. As the low-level jet intensifies after 00Z, more widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the warm front across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota Sunday night. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

WW 0171 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 171 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CDS TO 10 NNE CSM TO 40 NW CHK TO 20 NW OKC TO 25 NNE OKC TO 30 WNW CQB. ..BROYLES..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 171 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-075-083-109-149-250740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN KIOWA LOGAN OKLAHOMA WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 171 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 250355Z - 250900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Oklahoma Texas Panhandle * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1055 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of strong/severe storms including a few supercells should continue to develop southeastward regionally late tonight, although overall storm intensity should gradually diminish overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south of Borger TX to 40 miles southeast of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 167...WW 169...WW 170... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0555 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171... FOR PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0555 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle into western/central/northeast OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 171... Valid 250451Z - 250615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 171 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe threat will persist into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Three long-lived supercells are ongoing late tonight across the northeast TX Panhandle, while convection in OK has evolved into more of a quasi-linear mode, though a couple of embedded supercells persist across western OK. While MLCINH is increasing region-wide, the best relative storm environment remains across the TX Panhandle into extreme western OK, where MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell potential into the overnight hours. While ongoing storms will struggle to remain surface-based with time, a substantial nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet (as noted on the KAMA VWP) may support some tornado potential with ongoing supercells in the short term. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat for as long as vigorous convection persists overnight. Farther northeast, a small bowing segment has evolved across north-central OK, which is moving eastward along a weak surface boundary. The longevity of this bowing segment may be limited by diminishing downstream instability and increasing MLCINH, but a severe-wind threat could reach portions of northeast OK with time overnight. ..Dean.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35920128 35779951 36199798 36549747 36599668 36279616 35869621 35429676 35109813 34869967 34860029 34930107 35000139 35250152 35770162 35920128 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east, mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough. As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward moisture transport. ...Southern High Plains... As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However, there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east, mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough. As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward moisture transport. ...Southern High Plains... As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However, there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east, mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough. As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward moisture transport. ...Southern High Plains... As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However, there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east, mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough. As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward moisture transport. ...Southern High Plains... As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However, there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east, mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough. As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward moisture transport. ...Southern High Plains... As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However, there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east, mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough. As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward moisture transport. ...Southern High Plains... As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However, there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east, mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough. As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward moisture transport. ...Southern High Plains... As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However, there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east, mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough. As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward moisture transport. ...Southern High Plains... As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However, there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more