Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east, mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough. As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward moisture transport. ...Southern High Plains... As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However, there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ..Bentley.. 04/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough approaches the U.S. west coast, and associated southwest flow overspreads the Four Corners into the Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are forecast across much of the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. ...Central New Mexico into Far Eastern Arizona... Relative humidity of 10-20% and 15-20 MPH winds are expected across much of central and western New Mexico into eastern Arizona this afternoon into the early evening, where current fuels guidance has ERCs at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may exist where local topography provides an enhancement of surface winds. ..Halbert.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more