Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK... ...SUMMARY... A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being probable with the more intense supercells. ...20z Update... Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm, lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the 925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX... Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western U.S. upper trough. In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock vicinity. Farther west, a dryline extends south over eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong heating expected through the late afternoon. Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the boundaries. Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels. The magnitude of buoyancy and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially. Large to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely accompany the stronger supercells. A tornado risk will probably focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk late. Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells are possible later this afternoon into the evening. Large to giant hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is possible during the early evening. ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley... Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Some modest enhancement to low-level flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few transient organized cells. Despite moist profiles and limited lapse rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon. Read more