Severe Storms

MD 0560 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 172... FOR THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...the TX South Plains Concerning...Tornado Watch 172... Valid 252019Z - 252145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues. SUMMARY...Greatest potential for a slow-moving, long-lived intense supercell will be across the Texas South Plains portion of WW 172, along a largely west/east-oriented outflow boundary. DISCUSSION...Initial sustained supercell development has been drifting east over Bailey County, with additional incipient cells to its east towards Plainview. Surface/low-level convergence will remain maximized near the TX/NM border over the next couple hours, which should support further intensification of this ongoing activity. With only around 20-kts of 0-3 km shear per the Lubbock VWP, very large hail should remain the overarching threat in the near term, potentially reaching baseball to softball size. But strengthening of low-level east-southeasterlies should commence in the next couple hours. A corresponding increase in tornado potential is expected into early evening with ingest of mid 60s surface dew points from the Low Rolling Plains. Given weak large-scale ascent, convection should remain discrete enough into this time frame to support potential for a strong tornado in the most intense/mature supercell anchored along the mesoscale outflow boundary. ..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB... LAT...LON 34080287 34180228 34160204 34120170 34020123 33760075 33510068 33220083 33070100 33010138 33120183 33400212 33650254 33810291 34080287 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0559 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0559 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Areas affected...Central/eastern Kentucky into southern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251919Z - 252115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated strong/potentially damaging wind gust could occur this afternoon. A watch is not needed. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed within an area of thinner cirrus canopy in central Kentucky. This is occurring in response to a weak shortwave in the Midwest. Modest effective shear of around 25 kts could promote a stronger storm or two. Enhanced 850 mb winds ahead of the surface low/cold front will allow few stronger/potentially damaging winds to mix to the surface in the most intense storms. Furthermore, weak but sufficient low-level hodograph curvature is noted in KLVX/KJKL VAD data. It is possible a storm or two could exhibit weak low-level rotation. However, tornado potential is low. Additionally, low/mid-level lapse rates and mid/upper-level wind shear are all weak. Any severe threat that develops will be spatially limited and marginal. ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 37318683 38308511 38918406 38958314 38668274 37738300 37228395 36868550 36928660 37028676 37318683 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 172 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560. ..GRAMS..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 172 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC009-025-041-252140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRY LEA ROOSEVELT TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-101-107-117-125-129-153-155-165- 169-189-191-219-269-275-279-303-305-345-359-369-375-381-437-445- 501-252140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COCHRAN COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD FOARD GAINES GARZA HALE HALL HOCKLEY KING KNOX LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY OLDHAM PARMER Read more

WW 0173 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 173 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..04/25/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 173 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-252140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY TXC003-103-109-135-243-301-371-389-475-495-252140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR JEFF DAVIS LOVING PECOS REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Day 2 Update... Latest model guidance consensus suggests slightly higher southwest surface winds on Saturday in advance of a robust upper-level trough. Higher ensemble probabilities of overlapping southwest winds of 20 mph or greater and relative humidity of 15 percent or lower exist in the higher terrain of far eastern Arizona into central New Mexico, where Critical highlights have been added. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... By early Saturday evening, a mid-level trough is forecast to arrive over central California, with southwest flow overspreading much of the intermountain West. An intensifying surface cyclone in the Great Basin associated with this trough will be responsible for gusty southerly winds across the southern Rockies into the southern High Plains, resulting in Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico into Eastern Arizona... 20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity (perhaps even dipping into the single-digits across New Mexico) will be responsible for at least Elevated fire-weather concerns, especially given fuels guidance with ERCs already at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. Some locally Critical conditions may occur where local terrain enhancement of the winds are favored, but lack of confidence in widespread 25+ MPH winds based on forecast guidance precludes specific highlights at this time. However, if guidance comes into better agreement, a Critical highlight may be needed for portions of central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more