Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IA/SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe weather remains likely across portions of the Upper Midwest, centered on Monday afternoon and evening. Very large hail, strong tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected. ...Synopsis... Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a broader positive-tilt upper trough will eject into/across the North-Central States during the period. Primary surface cyclone, over central/eastern SD Monday morning, will remain nearly steady-state as it tracks east-northeast across the Upper Great Lakes. ...Upper Midwest... Elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday, centered on ND arcing southeast across the Upper MS Valley. Isolated severe hail may accompany this morning activity as it progresses eastward along the leading edge of a stout EML. Regenerative elevated storm development should persist northeast of the surface cyclone track across the Red River Valley through northern MN, likely limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front during the day. Guidance differs markedly with the degree of northward destabilization into northern MN, lowering confidence in the degree of severe threat here. South of early-period storms/cloud coverage, pronounced destabilization will occur beneath the initially stout EML amid strong low-level moist advection. Cooling mid-level temperatures during the afternoon will be favorably timed with peak heating to support thunderstorms across southern MN into northern IA. Greater coverage is expected with northern extent which may yield more linear organization, compared to more discrete/isolated coverage trailing southward. A mix of all hazards is anticipated with an increasing severe threat into the early/mid evening as the low-level jet strengthens across the Upper MS Valley to Upper Great Lakes. The southern portion of this will be the more favored corridor for open warm sector discrete supercells capable of producing strong tornadoes. By late evening, linear clusters will likely overtake much of the discrete convection as the cold front advances rapidly east-southeast. Damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain possible through the late evening and perhaps into the overnight hours. ...KS/MO to west TX... A strongly unstable/sheared warm sector will exist along/east of the dryline. Forcing for ascent should be much weaker than farther north with only weak mid-level height falls along the dryline. Most probable storm signals are after the nocturnal low-level jet increases during the evening in the southern Great Plains. This could support isolated supercells into Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/26/2025 Read more