Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more