Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

MD 0726 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 234...235... FOR MUCH OF SRN/ERN LA...WRN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...much of srn/ern LA...wrn MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 234...235... Valid 062301Z - 070100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 234, 235 continues. SUMMARY...The more discrete storms may occasionally intensify and pose a risk for a tornado through 7-9 PM CDT. Otherwise, storms may tend to slowly consolidate into another organizing but slow moving cluster, accompanied by a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or brief tornadoes while spreading eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. DISCUSSION...A meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation continues slowly eastward across north central Louisiana, with a compact but vigorous arcing band of convection being maintained to its immediate southeast through south. This has evolved along a weak near-surface baroclinic zone slowly retreating northward through the lower Mississippi Valley. 21-22Z surface observations have indicated the continuing presence of a notable 2-hourly surface fall/rise couplet (in excess of 2 mb) in association with this perturbation, though little in the way strong surface gusts have been observed. Along and south of the frontal zone, there has been a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, some of which has or could still become rooted within a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by lower 70s F surface dew points and CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm initiation has likely been supported by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with broad lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath strongly difluent upper flow which will only very slowly continue to overspread the lower Mississippi Valley through mid/late evening. As long as discrete thunderstorm development persists, there will be potential for occasional intensification, as these cells become rooted within the boundary-layer, in the presence of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of strong tornadoes. However, within time, models suggest that the southerly 850 mb may begin to weaken, and consolidating convection may tend to grow upscale into organized but slow moving convective system. ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31039410 31689319 32189265 32629203 33089111 32398983 31038984 29559026 29659157 29779296 29759398 30419446 31039410 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E ESF TO 30 NNE HEZ TO 50 SSE GLH. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-029-033-037-047-063-077-091-105-117-121-125-070140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-021-029-037-049-063-077-085-089-113-121-127-147-149- 157-163-070140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN MADISON PIKE RANKIN SIMPSON WALTHALL WARREN WILKINSON YAZOO Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE UTS TO 20 E ESF. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113- 070140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-070140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE TYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S EWR TO 30 ESE AVP TO 15 ESE UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC027-037-062340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORRIS SUSSEX NYC025-077-105-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE OTSEGO SULLIVAN PAC103-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE Read more