Severe Storms

WW 231 TORNADO TX 061315Z - 062100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and East/Southeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop near a warm front across the region with other storms related to an eastward-moving cluster of storms across central Texas early today. Tornado potential is apparent, including the possibility of strong tornadoes. Damaging winds and large hail are also expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of San Antonio TX to 35 miles southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 231 TORNADO TX 061315Z - 062100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and East/Southeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop near a warm front across the region with other storms related to an eastward-moving cluster of storms across central Texas early today. Tornado potential is apparent, including the possibility of strong tornadoes. Damaging winds and large hail are also expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of San Antonio TX to 35 miles southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0719 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233... Valid 061843Z - 062015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 continues. SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and hail remain the primary threats across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Ample diurnal heating has supporting boundary layer destabilization and subsequent development of multiple bands of thunderstorms ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Damaging gusts and hail (some stones approaching 1 inch in diameter) have been reported with some of the stronger storms. Given the presence of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding ongoing storms, additional strong wind gusts and instances of hail remain possible through the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39747698 40447694 41847679 42467662 42717597 42767521 42317466 41007440 40217468 39737530 39617595 39747698 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more