Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon. This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande. ...Rio Grande Valley... The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and strong gusts. ...Mid/Deep South... Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe hail and damaging wind. ...South Atlantic Coast... A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible, especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating cells/clusters Thursday afternoon. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic... A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

MD 0718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...East Texas and much of central Louisiana. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 061819Z - 061945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will likely be needed soon for portions of East Texas and much of central Louisiana. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed across central Texas. Embedded supercells within this line have shown persistent circulation with at least one confirmed tornado thus far. East of this line, the boundary layer continues to destabilize as a warm front lifts north. This will support a continued threat through the afternoon and into the evening along and south of the warm front. Favorable low-level shear is present ahead of this line across East Texas where SPC mesoanalysis shows a peak STP of 3 to 4. Expect this environment to continue to expand north and east ahead of this line with a persistent threat for primarily severe wind gusts and tornadoes. The higher end tornado threat hinges primarily on whether supercells can develop ahead of the ongoing linear activity. If this occurs, a greater strong tornado threat would exist this afternoon/evening. However, it is unclear whether this will occur. Storm development seems closely tied to the warm front/cold front and temperatures along the warm front across east Texas and west-central Louisiana are only in the low to mid 70s. Warmer temperatures have developed farther south across southeast Texas, but without a focused boundary for development, new development within this environment may be challenging. Nonetheless, even if the more discrete supercell threat does not materialize, confidence is high for a line of storms to move across East Texas and central Louisiana within a moderately unstable and strongly sheared environment. This will necessitate a tornado watch shortly. In addition, based on the current warm front location and expected northward movement, a few of the southern counties within severe thunderstorm watch 232 may also need to be replaced by a tornado watch with the issuance of this downstream watch. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30339448 30749464 31829471 32099387 32389302 32229220 31799210 31379207 30769209 30449227 30299380 30339448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 25 SSE AUS TO 40 W CLL TO 45 SE CRS. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-157-177-185-187-201-225-285- 287-289-291-313-331-339-373-395-407-455-471-473-477-481- 062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LEON LIBERTY MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more