Severe Storms

MD 0716 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey and far southeast New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061601Z - 061800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase over the next several hours. The stronger storms will be capable of strong wind gusts and perhaps large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed if appreciable strong storm coverage becomes apparent. DISCUSSION...Insolation is modifying the boundary layer amid some persistent cloud cover, remnant from earlier showers and thunderstorms, which is warming temperatures through the 60s F. Cooling temperatures atop a destabilizing airmass from the approach of a pronounced upper trough, and minimal convection inhibition, is supporting relative robust updraft development across southeast PA (per MRMS mosaic radar imagery). Through the day, further heating should boost MLCAPE to over 1000 J/kg, which should be adequate for scattered strong to potentially severe storms given expected 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Current regional VADs and short-term RAP forecast soundings depict a unidirectional vertical wind profile with elongated, straight hodographs. As such, linear multicellular clusters and transient supercells should be the primary modes of convection for the stronger storms that manage to develop. Strong, damaging gusts are possible later this afternoon once the boundary layer destabilizes. Given colder temperatures aloft overspreading the Mid-Atlantic into the Hudson Valley, large hail cannot be ruled out either. Therefore, if robust storm coverage becomes apparent, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed within the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40187461 39677487 39507511 39497538 39597578 39797624 39917661 40777666 41337661 41847648 42337627 42537581 42137499 41367469 40737453 40187461 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0717 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...southern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061614Z - 061745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...There is an increasing supercell threat across southern Louisiana with a threat for large hail and perhaps a tornado. DISCUSSION...Scattered cloud cover has supported rapid destabilization south of a northward moving warm front across southern Louisiana. A strengthening low-level jet across southern Louisiana (45-50 knots per LCH VWP) has provided sufficient forcing for convective development late this morning. These storms which have developed have quickly shown supercellular characteristics amid 40 knots of effective shear (per LCH VWP). While a tornado threat cannot be ruled out, storm propagation across the warm front should mostly support a hail threat from this activity. Due to the propagation across the front and displacement well east of the upper-level forcing, duration of the threat and necessity for a severe thunderstorm watch remains unclear. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30989361 31279253 31229172 30929058 30469020 29649072 29409141 29539241 29739328 29909353 30989361 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE HDO TO 30 W AUS TO 30 SSW TPL TO 15 SE TPL TO 20 ENE ACT. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-027-031-041-051-055-089-091-123-145-149-157-177-185- 187-201-209-225-259-285-287-289-313-331-339-395-407-453-455-471- 473-477-481-491-061840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON KENDALL LAVACA LEE LEON MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE ACT TO 15 NNW CRS TO 35 ENE DAL TO 20 SSE DUA. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-063-067-073-159-161-183-203-213-223-231-257-293-315-343- 347-349-365-379-397-401-419-423-449-459-467-499-061840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMP CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN FREESTONE GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES NAVARRO PANOLA RAINS ROCKWALL RUSK SHELBY SMITH TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more