Severe Storms

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S EWR TO 30 ESE AVP TO 15 ESE UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC027-037-062340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORRIS SUSSEX NYC025-077-105-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE OTSEGO SULLIVAN PAC103-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S EWR TO 30 ESE AVP TO 15 ESE UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC027-037-062340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORRIS SUSSEX NYC025-077-105-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE OTSEGO SULLIVAN PAC103-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S EWR TO 30 ESE AVP TO 15 ESE UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC027-037-062340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORRIS SUSSEX NYC025-077-105-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE OTSEGO SULLIVAN PAC103-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S EWR TO 30 ESE AVP TO 15 ESE UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC027-037-062340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORRIS SUSSEX NYC025-077-105-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE OTSEGO SULLIVAN PAC103-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE Read more

MD 0726 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 234...235... FOR MUCH OF SRN/ERN LA...WRN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...much of srn/ern LA...wrn MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 234...235... Valid 062301Z - 070100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 234, 235 continues. SUMMARY...The more discrete storms may occasionally intensify and pose a risk for a tornado through 7-9 PM CDT. Otherwise, storms may tend to slowly consolidate into another organizing but slow moving cluster, accompanied by a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or brief tornadoes while spreading eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. DISCUSSION...A meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation continues slowly eastward across north central Louisiana, with a compact but vigorous arcing band of convection being maintained to its immediate southeast through south. This has evolved along a weak near-surface baroclinic zone slowly retreating northward through the lower Mississippi Valley. 21-22Z surface observations have indicated the continuing presence of a notable 2-hourly surface fall/rise couplet (in excess of 2 mb) in association with this perturbation, though little in the way strong surface gusts have been observed. Along and south of the frontal zone, there has been a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, some of which has or could still become rooted within a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by lower 70s F surface dew points and CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorm initiation has likely been supported by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with broad lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath strongly difluent upper flow which will only very slowly continue to overspread the lower Mississippi Valley through mid/late evening. As long as discrete thunderstorm development persists, there will be potential for occasional intensification, as these cells become rooted within the boundary-layer, in the presence of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conditionally supportive of strong tornadoes. However, within time, models suggest that the southerly 850 mb may begin to weaken, and consolidating convection may tend to grow upscale into organized but slow moving convective system. ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31039410 31689319 32189265 32629203 33089111 32398983 31038984 29559026 29659157 29779296 29759398 30419446 31039410 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0725 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233... FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0725 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Eastern New York and portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233... Valid 062157Z - 070000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 continues. SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms beginning to move out of WW 233 has shown signs of weakening over the past hour. However, residual buoyancy and strong shear downstream may maintain some severe risk into parts of eastern New York. Downstream watch issuance is not currently expected, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Lightning counts have trended down within an arcing band of storms moving out of northeast PA and into NY. Concurrently, GOES IR imagery shows a slight warming trend in cloud-top temperatures, also suggesting a gradual weakening trend. Currently, the best convective environment resides across eastern portions of WW 233 - specifically far eastern PA into northern NJ and southern NY - where a few robust cells continue to show periodic intensification. Although some buoyancy exists immediately downstream of the convective band (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), the overall weakening trend is largely expected to continue as the onset of the early evening transition within the next 1-2 hours begins to limit surface-based buoyancy and increase inhibition. However, robust ascent ahead of a mid-level shortwave/vorticity maximum and 45-50 knots of deep-layer shear sampled by regional VWPs may continue to support storm maintenance and occasional intensification of cells and/or segments within the line. Given the aforementioned thermodynamic challenges, this is not anticipated to be a widespread threat, but localized areas of damaging gusts appear possible through 00 UTC. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 40897539 41387532 41837535 42237543 42497559 42637581 42767599 42967609 43187612 43487601 43707577 43847545 43867514 43877477 43817462 43647434 43317381 42977360 42717346 42297339 41147356 40937367 40697390 40637412 40607455 40677517 40897539 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE ESF TO 45 SSW GLH. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-025-029-033-035-037-041-047-063-065-077-091-105-107- 117-121-125-070040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA FRANKLIN IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON MADISON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-021-029-037-049-055-063-077-085-089-113-121-125-127- 147-149-157-163-070040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN MADISON PIKE RANKIN SHARKEY SIMPSON Read more

WW 235 TORNADO LA MS 062210Z - 070600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 235 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast into Southeast Louisiana Southwest into Central Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 510 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move into the Watch area this evening into the early overnight. A few supercells and line segments will likely focus the severe thunderstorm and tornado risks. A couple of tornadoes are possible with the more intense thunderstorms, as well as damaging gusts and large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Monroe LA to 75 miles south southwest of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 233...WW 234... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW LFK TO 35 NW POE TO 15 E IER TO 40 NNE ESF. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-043-045-053-055-059-079-097-099- 101-113-115-070040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-070040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE TYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 234 TORNADO LA TX 061835Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms with embedded supercells will spread eastward over east Texas into Louisiana this afternoon and evening. Main threats will be tornadoes and severe/damaging winds. A strong tornado or two will be possible with any supercell that can persist along/ahead of the ongoing thunderstorms. Isolated large hail may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest of Lufkin TX to 25 miles northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232...WW 233... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S EWR TO 30 ESE AVP TO 15 ESE UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC027-037-062340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORRIS SUSSEX NYC025-077-105-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE OTSEGO SULLIVAN PAC103-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S EWR TO 30 ESE AVP TO 15 ESE UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC027-037-062340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORRIS SUSSEX NYC025-077-105-062340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE OTSEGO SULLIVAN PAC103-062340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE Read more

MD 0724 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062132Z - 062300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase across parts of eastern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi over then next few hours. Primary concerns are large hail and damaging winds, though the tornado risk could increase with time. DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete supercells and line segments are evolving in the warm-advection wing extending from eastern LA into southwestern MS. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per HDC VWP data) and middle/upper 60s dewpoints spreading gradually northward along/south of the warm front will continue to support this activity as it continues spreading east-northeastward over the next few hours. While some of these storms will remain elevated north of the warm front, posing mainly a risk of large hail, any storms that can mature along/south of the surface front will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado -- given ample low-level buoyancy and SRH. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30729084 31489171 32469178 32819158 32959114 32909069 32509000 31268926 30688954 30479016 30729084 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 233 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA 061705Z - 070000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern New Jersey South-Central New York Eatsern Pennsylvania * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as they move generally northward. The strongest thunderstorms could produce hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds with peak gusts to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Binghamton NY to 35 miles west of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 19030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0235 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0723 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 234... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO MUCH OF LOUISIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0723 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Texas to much of Louisiana. Concerning...Tornado Watch 234... Valid 062048Z - 062215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 234 continues. SUMMARY...Continued threat for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and isolated hail. DISCUSSION...A well-developed line of storms extends from east-central Texas to northwest Louisiana. Sporadic wind damage and at least one tornado has been reported thus far within the line. A more favorable orientation of the line has occurred across northeast Texas/northwest Louisiana where a bowing segment is apparent. In addition, a tornado with a TDS was recently observed southwest of the SHV radar where a leading supercell interacted with this line. Limited surface base instability amid mid 60s dewpoints and preceding rainfall should keep the tornado threat somewhat limited, but enough surface based or near surface based instability is present for some tornado threat near the apex of this bow, particularly where any cell interactions occur. Expect the greatest severe wind threat near this bowing segment of the line across northern Louisiana this afternoon and into the early evening. Farther south, isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible, particularly with any embedded supercells within the line. A conditional greater tornado threat exists with any supercells which can develop along/south of the warm front in Louisiana where STP values are around 2 to 3. STP values may increase this evening as low-level shear strengthens. Convection strengthening across southeast Texas could be the beginning of this potential threat. If any of these supercells can remain discrete with sufficient longevity to mature, they will pose a strong tornado threat this afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 32599438 32889379 32969282 32829236 32319202 31539204 30579252 30199349 29979421 29549570 29519653 29559682 29779721 30239722 30849622 31759508 32599438 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LFK TO 25 E SHV TO 35 SSW ELD. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-013-019-021-027-031-039-043-049-053-055-059- 061-069-073-079-081-085-097-111-115-127-062240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALCASIEU CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE ST. LANDRY UNION VERNON WINN TXC005-199-241-245-347-351-361-403-405-419-457-062240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LFK TO 25 E SHV TO 35 SSW ELD. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-013-019-021-027-031-039-043-049-053-055-059- 061-069-073-079-081-085-097-111-115-127-062240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALCASIEU CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE ST. LANDRY UNION VERNON WINN TXC005-199-241-245-347-351-361-403-405-419-457-062240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE Read more

MD 0722 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0722 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into northwestern New Jersey and southern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233... Valid 062037Z - 062200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 continues. SUMMARY...Additional instances of damaging gusts and perhaps hail remain possible with the stronger storms. A tornado may still occur with storms ahead of a pre-frontal boundary. DISCUSSION...A primary arching band of strong thunderstorms persists ahead of a pseudo-dryline pre-frontal boundary across far eastern PA, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s F amid 10 degree F dewpoint decreases as the boundary passes. These pre-frontal storms have been the most organized so far, with multiple instances of low-level rotation detected and an apparent tornado reported in the past hour. The best chance for an additional tornado remains with these storms, along the PA/NJ/NY borders, before the ongoing storms move into a more stable airmass. Otherwise, strong wind gusts and perhaps hail may develop with the stronger storms to the west of the pre-frontal boundary. ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 40267688 41177674 42567623 42787535 42797500 42027455 41117454 40727455 40397480 40187520 40117594 40267688 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0721 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...much of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061927Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A sparse severe threat could develop this afternoon across the FL Peninsula, where a stray damaging gust or instance of hail are possible. However, the severe threat should be isolated at best, precluding a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has aided in thunderstorm initiation across the FL Peninsula as temperatures have climbed over 90 F. Given at least upper 60s F dewpoints steep low-level lapse rates, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE are in place south of a remnant frontal boundary per 19Z mesoanalysis. Synoptic forcing is weak and vertical wind shear is quite poor, casting doubt on any appreciable severe threat. However, if a robust thunderstorm manages to develop and persist, the strong buoyancy in place may support an instance of hail or strong wind gusts, especially over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula. Given the very isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 25308083 26188173 27448225 29118239 29718163 29658121 28658070 27498028 26578015 25948017 25438037 25308083 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more