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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0277 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0277 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0277 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/17/2025 Read more