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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more