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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 17 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more