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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more