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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA....... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...20z Update... Adjustments were made to the 20z to remove the Marginal risk across portions of Georgia into South Carolina and across the northeast behind morning convection. The Slight Risk and Moderate Risk were nudged further south in far southern Texas to account for potential for storms to come out of Mexico this evening with potential for large hail and severe winds. Otherwise, the risk areas across the main region of the southern/central Plains were not changed. Thunderstorm development has begun across the dryline from southern/central Texas to the Red River in Oklahoma. See MCD#840 and MCD#838 for more information on the short term risks in these areas. ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0280 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0840 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...much of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 171910Z - 171945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms will rapidly form over northwest Texas and spread into southern Oklahoma and across much of North Texas. Very large damaging hail is expected, along with corridors of wind damage. DISCUSSION...Warm front continues to move northward into south-central OK, with a very moist and unstable air mass developing to the south. Meanwhile, a dryline arcs from near CDS into west-central TX. Visible imagery show rapid TCU near SPS and extending southward toward BWD. Extreme instability is already in place with MLCAPE approaching 5000 J/kg. Meanwhile, hodographs are elongated with nearly 60 kt effective deep-layer shear. Storms will develop soon and spread primarily eastward. Both supercells and bows are possible. Splitting cells may move northeastward across much of southern OK as well. The extreme instability coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable shear will support significant damaging hail and wind. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 31869849 32329909 33689924 34269896 34669840 34819731 34629631 34219547 33929521 33139519 32439552 32119646 31869849 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-039-043-045- 049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-095- 099-107-109-121-123-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-172140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LATIMER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-172140- Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0279 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0278 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more