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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon, supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely. Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm front over the TN Valley as well. ...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support destabilization along and south of a warm front during the afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce tornadoes. ...Portions of the central into southern Plains... Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers, may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon, with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to 70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear, large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Portions of the TN Valley... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

MD 0837 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO VERMONT AND FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
Mesoscale Discussion 0837 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Upstate New York into Vermont and far western Massachusetts Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171616Z - 171845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity through the day, with areas of hail, wind, and a couple brief tornadoes possible. DISCUSSION...In the wake of the early day activity over northern NY, southerly winds continue to destabilize the area, well ahead of the cold front and upper trough moving in from the west. Visible imagery and radar indicate widespread boundary layer cumulus with a few storms beginning to form near the lake breezes and over other well heated terrain features. Cooling aloft overspreading the warming surface air mass will lead to steepening lapse rates and further destabilization. While not particularly strong, deep layer shear and veering winds with height will generally favor cellular development ahead of the cold front. These cells could produce hail, localized wind damage or even brief tornadoes as 0-3 km CAPE is maximized. As the primary cold front moves in later, additional activity over western NY and PA could pose more of a wind threat, sweeping in behind the leading daytime activity. The wind shift will be prominent, with over 30 kt westerly low-level flow. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 45057223 43617227 43187247 42837305 42537348 42237515 42207605 42237722 42337792 42537824 42947827 43247788 43417685 43587650 44247615 45037492 45057223 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHERN OK...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are still expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains, as well as parts of the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface low development along the CO/KS tomorrow (Sunday). Ahead of the surface low and sharpening dryline, rapid north-northwestward advection of relatively rich low-level moisture beneath a pronounced EML will result in strong buoyancy across much of the central and southern Plains. Furthermore, a low-level jet will overspread the Plains states, beneath strong southwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the ejecting upper trough, resulting in strong vertical speed and directional shear coinciding with the aforementioned unstable environment. Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near, and to the north of the surface low, ahead of the dryline, and along an effective warm front across the central Plains, with all convective hazards possible. Lastly, isolated strong storms are possible along a diffuse baroclinic boundary across the Southeast tomorrow afternoon. ...Portions of the central High Plains... A narrow corridor of mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints may advect to the north of the surface low by afternoon, ahead of an arching dryline, where scattered thunderstorms should develop. 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will overspread this moisture ahead of the dryline, supporting well over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low-level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes. If a mature, discrete supercell can materialize and achieve substantial residence time within the narrow warm sector, the storm may become cyclic tornadic in nature. However, confidence in this scenario is not overly high at this time. ...Kansas into central Texas... At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the leading edge of greater moisture return along the KS/OK border by early afternoon. With strong shear/instability already in place, supercells are likely, accompanied by a large hail threat. Questions remain how far north the better moisture will return into KS given possible stabilizing impacts of these storms. However, by mid to late afternoon, some eastward advancement of the dryline should encourage a second round of supercell development along the KS/OK border. Ahead of these storms and south of the effective warm front, surface dewpoints should exceed 70 F in spots, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg on a widespread basis. Substantial veering/strengthening of the vertical wind fields with height will also result in enlarged, curved hodographs and over 300 m2/s2 effective SRH sometime between 21-00Z. Any supercells that can mature and sustain themselves in this environment will have the potential to produce very large hail (perhaps exceeding 3 inches in diameter) and tornadoes (some possibly EF2+). Storm coverage is expected to be less across central OK into central TX owing to less low-level convergence along the dryline. However, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes should storms develop farther south along the dryline. ...Portions of the Southeast... Scattered strong storms should develop along the baroclinic boundary across the Southeast by afternoon peak heating tomorrow (Sunday). Rich low-level moisture beneath modest mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE, with strong flow aloft also contributing to elongated, mainly straight hodographs. Stronger storms that develop in this environment will be capable of large hail and gusty winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025 Read more