Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 276 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC VA 170835Z - 171600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme Northeast Georgia Western and Central North Carolina Northern South Carolina Southern Virginia * Effective this Saturday morning from 435 AM until NOON EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and move east across the watch area through mid morning. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary severe threats, and a tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of South Hill VA to 40 miles west southwest of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 274...WW 275... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Bunting Read more

MD 0832 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0832 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...northern Mississippi into northern and central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 170650Z - 170745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms across northern Mississippi should continue moving east through the morning. A downstream watch may be necessary in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues across southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi where an environment characterized by strong instability and deep-layer shear are supporting robust updrafts. Recent radar trends suggest hail up to 1.5" in diameter and gusty winds are possible with the strongest of these thunderstorm cores. The environment ahead of these storms remains conducive for robust updrafts with MLCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg (and MUCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg) and deep-layer shear in excess of 50 knots. Thus, the area downstream of Tornado Watch #270 is being monitored for a potential new watch, and/or an extension in space of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #274. Increasing convective inhibition may yield increasingly elevated thunderstorms with time, favoring large hail and gusty winds as the primary severe hazards. However, the overall environment will remain conducive for supercell thunderstorms and with effective-layer SRH between 200-300 a tornado cannot be ruled out. Across northern Alabama the threat is a bit more uncertain. Here a long-lived linear MCS continues to push south through Tennessee. Although thunderstorm activity within this line has been sub-severe of late, the overall environment remains fairly conducive for robust thunderstorm updrafts and perhaps a severe hail and wind threat. If thunderstorm intensity increases as these Tennessee thunderstorms approach Alabama, a need for a downstream watch will become necessary for portions of northern Alabama. ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33239095 33969101 34419000 34808745 34778557 32908685 33239095 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north through the day. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat. Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma. Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection. Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected, more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore, between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday evening. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north through the day. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat. Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma. Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection. Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected, more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore, between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday evening. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north through the day. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat. Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma. Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection. Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected, more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore, between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday evening. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north through the day. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat. Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma. Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection. Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected, more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore, between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday evening. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more