Aggregator

063
ABPZ20 KNHC 172317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 0844 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278... FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278... Valid 172229Z - 172330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging winds are approaching the southern periphery of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. 2.00-3.5" hail and 65-80 MPH winds are possible as storms continue north and east this evening. DISCUSSION...A loose cluster of supercell thunderstorms is approaching the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, which will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. The overall messy nature of convection appears to be somewhat limiting the severity of hail for the time being, but will pose a damaging wind threat in the short term. Additionally, a northward-moving left-split supercell to the west of Fort Worth will serve as the local maximum for a large hail threat within WW 278 for the next 1-2 hours. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31459683 31199727 31319772 31539767 31979765 32389776 32759816 33029837 33429828 33669803 33619730 33349663 33259655 32759640 32079641 31459683 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 281 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 172200Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana West-Central Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing supercell thunderstorms should persist for several more hours this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for mainly 1-2 inch diameter hail. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Monroe LA to 30 miles south of Greenwood MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW 279...WW 280... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-011-017-041-043-172340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LAC035-065-067-083-123-172340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND WEST CARROLL MSC011-051-053-055-083-125-133-149-151-163-172340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LEFLORE SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON Read more

MD 0843 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 279... FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0843 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 279... Valid 172135Z - 172300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat for WW 279 is increasing, with an isolated supercell thunderstorm ongoing across central Oklahoma. All hazards are anticipated, including hail larger than 2.00", 65-80 MPH winds, and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows an ongoing supercell thunderstorm that is undergoing an updraft split. 20Z OUN sounding data and KTLX VAD data show very strong low-level shear and streamwise vorticity that will favor the right split and an eastward storm motion along the warm front, resulting in increased tornado potential this afternoon into the evening. A strong tornado is possible with the right splitting supercell as it approaches and crosses the I-35 corridor in the next 1-2 hours. Echo tops on the right-split of the supercell have increased to 55 kft, suggesting rapid updraft intensification. Any additional thunderstorms that develop and interact with the warm front will be capable of all hazards. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34389875 34659956 34919988 35359994 35589951 35769911 35659756 35549688 35279585 34909543 34499561 34259620 34239737 34389875 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-053-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-385-411- 435-463-465-172340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN BURNET EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MENARD REAL SAN SABA SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844 ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-193-213- 217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-309-333-337-349-363-367-379- 397-425-429-439-467-497-503-172340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DELTA DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ALB TO 20 SW RUT TO 15 SW LEB TO 40 N BML. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NHC005-007-009-019-172340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON SULLIVAN NYC083-172340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RENSSELAER VTC003-025-172340- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON WINDHAM Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ALB TO 20 SW RUT TO 15 SW LEB TO 40 N BML. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NHC005-007-009-019-172340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON SULLIVAN NYC083-172340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RENSSELAER VTC003-025-172340- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON WINDHAM Read more

WW 277 SEVERE TSTM NH NY VT LO 171635Z - 180000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New Hampshire Central and Northern New York Vermont Lake Ontario * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce large hail and perhaps a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles east southeast of Montpelier VT to 5 miles south of Rochester NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843 ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-039-043-045- 049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-095- 099-107-109-121-123-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-172340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LATIMER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA Read more

MD 0842 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277... FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO VERMONT AND FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
Mesoscale Discussion 0842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Upstate New York into Vermont and far western Massachusetts Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277... Valid 172036Z - 172230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms persist from Upstate New York into Vermont. Strong gusts, marginal hail, and a brief tornado remain possible. DISCUSSION...Storms appear to be producing strong outflow/gusts as well as hail up to severe limits over northern NY and VT. The area has destabilized as lapse rates continue to steepen aloft, now with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, satellite imagery shows the effects of midlevel subsidence father south into PA, with flat/"pancake" cumulus presentation. Objective analysis does indicate relatively large 0-1 SRH over VT/MA/NH, with values of 100-150 m2/s2. In addition, early day clouds have moved out, allowing heating. As such, this general zone could support a brief tornado as storms approach from the west later this afternoon. ..Jewell.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 42597561 43217528 43687492 44467436 45157281 45047177 44387171 43637181 43087197 42657217 42397280 42247363 42247414 42377549 42597561 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0841 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0841 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Southern Arkansas into northeast Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172012Z - 172215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated thunderstorm or two may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat through late afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...GOES 1-minute imagery shows building cumulus along a northward advancing warm front across north/northeastern LA. Multiple weak attempts at convective initiation have been noted over the past 20 minutes, but it remains unclear if sustained deep convection will become established. Locally enhanced convergence associated with the outflow of a decaying supercell to the southeast may promote adequate ascent for a storm or two within the next couple of hours. If a storm can become established, the convective environment (characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50 knots of effective shear) would support supercellular storm modes (this was demonstrated by a prior cell that produced 2.5 inch hail near Jackson, MS). Storm propagation to the southeast along the warm front/outflow boundary is likely with the potential for severe hail (possibly as large as 2.5 inches) and damaging gusts. Given the localized nature of this threat, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32639281 32899328 33129355 33439358 33649340 33619307 33569298 33359250 33229203 33139165 33099124 33049108 32769094 32479101 32269121 32089149 32059185 32639281 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more