Aggregator

MD 0845 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR ARK-LA-TEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 172341Z - 180215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A wind-damage, large hail and isolated tornado threat is expected to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex early this evening. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Fort Worth, Texas shows multiple clusters of severe storms across northeast Texas. The storms are located along the western edge of a pocket of strong to extreme instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. Water vapor imagery suggests that a shortwave trough is moving through north-central Texas. Large-scale ascent associated with this feature will support the continued development of strong thunderstorms. Short-term forecasts, including the HRRR, move these storms east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex over the next few hours. In the Ark-La-Tex, the latest RAP shows steep low-level lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km, along with moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This environment will likely be favorable for a severe threat with wind damage and large hail possible. An isolated tornado could also develop. ..Broyles.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 34629278 34869367 34859443 34459505 33629536 32869518 32519454 32399371 32509288 33039236 33749216 34299225 34629278 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S BWD TO 25 SSE SEP TO 35 ENE SPS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846 ..HALBERT..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-085-097-099-113-119-121-139-147-181-193-213-217-221-223- 231-251-257-277-281-309-333-337-349-367-379-397-425-439-467-497- 180040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COLLIN COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-039-043-045- 049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-095- 099-107-109-121-123-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-180040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LATIMER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-180040- Read more

WW 278 SEVERE TSTM TX 171930Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and North-Central Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will rapidly intensify this afternoon. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be a concern through the early evening. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Fort Worth TX to 5 miles south of Waco TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 279 TORNADO OK TX 171940Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Southern Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in a very moist and unstable air mass. Very large hail and damaging winds may occur in these storms. A warm front draped across Oklahoma may provide sufficient low-level shear for a few tornadoes as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Altus OK to 35 miles east southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846 ..HALBERT..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-053-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-385-411- 435-463-465-180040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN BURNET EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MENARD REAL SAN SABA SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 280 SEVERE TSTM TX 171955Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will affect the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. Very unstable conditions will promote a risk of large hail and damaging winds in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles southwest of Del Rio TX to 45 miles northwest of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW 279... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 17 23:30:12 UTC 2025.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

063
ABPZ20 KNHC 172317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 0844 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278... FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278... Valid 172229Z - 172330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of primarily large hail and damaging winds are approaching the southern periphery of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. 2.00-3.5" hail and 65-80 MPH winds are possible as storms continue north and east this evening. DISCUSSION...A loose cluster of supercell thunderstorms is approaching the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, which will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. The overall messy nature of convection appears to be somewhat limiting the severity of hail for the time being, but will pose a damaging wind threat in the short term. Additionally, a northward-moving left-split supercell to the west of Fort Worth will serve as the local maximum for a large hail threat within WW 278 for the next 1-2 hours. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31459683 31199727 31319772 31539767 31979765 32389776 32759816 33029837 33429828 33669803 33619730 33349663 33259655 32759640 32079641 31459683 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 281 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 172200Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana West-Central Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Ongoing supercell thunderstorms should persist for several more hours this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for mainly 1-2 inch diameter hail. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Monroe LA to 30 miles south of Greenwood MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW 279...WW 280... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 281 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 281 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-011-017-041-043-172340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW LAC035-065-067-083-123-172340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST CARROLL MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND WEST CARROLL MSC011-051-053-055-083-125-133-149-151-163-172340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LEFLORE SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WARREN WASHINGTON Read more

MD 0843 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 279... FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0843 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 279... Valid 172135Z - 172300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat for WW 279 is increasing, with an isolated supercell thunderstorm ongoing across central Oklahoma. All hazards are anticipated, including hail larger than 2.00", 65-80 MPH winds, and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows an ongoing supercell thunderstorm that is undergoing an updraft split. 20Z OUN sounding data and KTLX VAD data show very strong low-level shear and streamwise vorticity that will favor the right split and an eastward storm motion along the warm front, resulting in increased tornado potential this afternoon into the evening. A strong tornado is possible with the right splitting supercell as it approaches and crosses the I-35 corridor in the next 1-2 hours. Echo tops on the right-split of the supercell have increased to 55 kft, suggesting rapid updraft intensification. Any additional thunderstorms that develop and interact with the warm front will be capable of all hazards. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34389875 34659956 34919988 35359994 35589951 35769911 35659756 35549688 35279585 34909543 34499561 34259620 34239737 34389875 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-053-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-385-411- 435-463-465-172340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN BURNET EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MENARD REAL SAN SABA SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844 ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-193-213- 217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-309-333-337-349-363-367-379- 397-425-429-439-467-497-503-172340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DELTA DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ALB TO 20 SW RUT TO 15 SW LEB TO 40 N BML. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NHC005-007-009-019-172340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON SULLIVAN NYC083-172340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RENSSELAER VTC003-025-172340- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON WINDHAM Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ALB TO 20 SW RUT TO 15 SW LEB TO 40 N BML. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NHC005-007-009-019-172340- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON SULLIVAN NYC083-172340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RENSSELAER VTC003-025-172340- VT . VERMONT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNINGTON WINDHAM Read more

WW 277 SEVERE TSTM NH NY VT LO 171635Z - 180000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New Hampshire Central and Northern New York Vermont Lake Ontario * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce large hail and perhaps a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles east southeast of Montpelier VT to 5 miles south of Rochester NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843 ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-039-043-045- 049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-095- 099-107-109-121-123-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-172340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LATIMER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA Read more