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WW 282 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 180045Z - 180700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 745 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-Central Arkansas Northern Louisiana Far Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 745 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters and supercells should spread generally eastward this evening and overnight while posing a threat for both large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph. A tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Longview TX to 30 miles north of Monroe LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 278...WW 279...WW 280...WW 281... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180540- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

WW 283 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 180250Z - 180900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Arkansas Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 950 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Mainly elevated thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for large hail this evening into the early overnight hours. The largest hailstones may reach up to 1-2 inches in diameter. There is also some chance for a cluster of thunderstorms to form over the next few hours. If this occurs, then the threat for severe/damaging winds would increase as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Chickasha OK to 5 miles east southeast of Fort Smith AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...WW 280...WW 281...WW 282... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE PRX TO 30 N SHV TO 20 NNE MLU. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-051-053-057-059-061-073-081-091-097- 099-103-109-113-127-133-139-180440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEVIER UNION LAC027-111-180440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CLAIBORNE UNION OKC089-180440- Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 283 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 283 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-131-143-180440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-011-015-017-021-027-037-047-051-061-063-073-077-079-081- 083-087-091-093-101-103-107-109-111-117-119-121-125-127-133-135- 143-145-180440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CREEK GARFIELD GRADY HASKELL HUGHES KINGFISHER LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MUSKOGEE NOBLE OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER Read more

WW 0283 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0283 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0282 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE LFK TO 5 N TXK TO 20 N PRX. ..HALBERT..05/18/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 282 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-051-053-057-059-061-073-081-091-097- 099-103-109-113-133-139-180340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE POLK SEVIER UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-073-081-111-119-180340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN OUACHITA RED RIVER UNION WEBSTER Read more

MD 0847 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 279... FOR OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma...North Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 279... Valid 180040Z - 180245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across part of western, central and southeastern Oklahoma over the next few hours. Large hail potentially over 2 inches in diameter, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from KTLX shows a supercell in southeast Oklahoma, and a second supercell near the Red River. These severe storms are located near a bullseye in instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. In addition, the Fort Smith, AR WSR-88D VWP has a looping hodograph, with strong directional shear in the low-levels, and 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This environment will be favorable for supercells, with tornado and large hail potential. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter be possible within the more intense cores. Over the next hour, a storm merger will be possible in southeast Oklahoma. Although it is uncertain how this will affect the severe threat, a local increase in damaging winds will be possible as the merger takes place. Northwestward into parts of central and northwest Oklahoma, short-term forecasts suggest that a small severe convective cluster will form and progress eastward this evening, along and near the warm front. For this reason, a threat for large hail and wind damage is expected to develop in the northwestern part of the watch over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33929528 33669611 33819719 34139839 34779969 35359997 35899993 36299946 36369821 35579622 34779528 33929528 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0845 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR ARK-LA-TEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 172341Z - 180215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A wind-damage, large hail and isolated tornado threat is expected to develop across parts of the Ark-La-Tex early this evening. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Fort Worth, Texas shows multiple clusters of severe storms across northeast Texas. The storms are located along the western edge of a pocket of strong to extreme instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. Water vapor imagery suggests that a shortwave trough is moving through north-central Texas. Large-scale ascent associated with this feature will support the continued development of strong thunderstorms. Short-term forecasts, including the HRRR, move these storms east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex over the next few hours. In the Ark-La-Tex, the latest RAP shows steep low-level lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km, along with moderate deep-layer shear. This is evident on the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This environment will likely be favorable for a severe threat with wind damage and large hail possible. An isolated tornado could also develop. ..Broyles.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 34629278 34869367 34859443 34459505 33629536 32869518 32519454 32399371 32509288 33039236 33749216 34299225 34629278 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0846 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 278...280... FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0846 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278...280... Valid 172343Z - 180115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 278, 280 continues. SUMMARY...While convective coverage remains relatively low, some new thunderstorm development could potentially pose a risk for hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Convective coverage across WW 280 remains relatively low. However, additional thunderstorm development has occurred over central Texas, with fairly robust echo tops around 45 kft and higher reflectivity cores. However, this storm is moving into an area of convective outflow. It is uncertain if thunderstorm activity will persist -- albeit, rooted above the boundary layer -- or dissipate as it enters the colder air. Still, as this storm moves northward into WW 278, it may pose an additional risk for severe hail and damaging winds. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30790030 31129976 31589922 32049881 32179822 32199760 31789713 31559730 31209737 30779779 30479844 30209923 30289985 30540026 30790030 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible across the southern Plains into the Arklatex region. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor suggests a weak short-wave trough has advanced into the high Plains, extending from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. This feature is partly responsible for drawing richer boundary-layer moisture into northwest OK. Latest surface analysis suggests a well-defined warm front currently extends across south-central OK to near GAG in Ellis County. Low-level warm advection is focused along/north of this wind shift, and some nocturnal increase in 850mb flow could aid upscale growth to ongoing convection over the northeast TX Panhandle. This activity should propagate downstream within the warm-advection zone, primarily across the northern half of OK. Additional strong/severe thunderstorm clusters persist from southeast OK into northeast TX. 00z sounding from SHV exhibits a very buoyant air mass characterized by 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 45kt. Organized convection should propagate in a general eastward direction, along the warm advection corridor, across the Arklatex. Hail/wind threat continues. ..Darrow.. 05/18/2025 Read more