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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough and associated mid-level wind maximum will contribute to ongoing elevated/critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern New Mexico/western Texas for Day 3/Monday. Residual precipitation and higher elevation snow within a cool, post frontal air mass will temporarily mitigate fire weather threat across the Intermountain West north of Interstate 40. Several upper-level embedded short waves should calm fire weather concerns across the Northern Rockies with several opportunities for precipitation through Day 8/Saturday. Dry conditions under a building ridge and suppressed surface pressure gradients will accompany rising temperatures across the Southwest, aiding in drying of fuels. ...Southwest... Persistent critical fire weather conditions are expected for Day 3/Monday across southern New Mexico and far western Texas as mid-level trough and associated jet eject into the Southern Plains. Efficient boundary layer mixing with minimal cloud cover ahead of a cold front will support strong sustained west winds of 20 mph, to locally 30 mph along with critically low relative humidity. Critical probabilities were expanded slightly eastward into west Texas. Overall fire weather conditions are expected to improve from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 8/Saturday across the Southwest. No large scale critical conditions are expected although above normal temperatures will develop as a result of the building upper-level ridge, drying fuels in areas that are already experiencing severe/extreme drought. ...Sacramento/Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly winds of 15-20 mph with relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range will promote at least an elevated fire weather threat for Day 3/Monday across the Sacramento/Central Valley. Marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-053-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-385-411- 435-463-465-172240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN BURNET EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MENARD REAL SAN SABA SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-181-193-213- 217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-309-333-337-349-363-367-379- 397-425-429-439-467-497-503-172240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL DALLAS DELTA DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-033-039-043-045- 049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-095- 099-107-109-121-123-125-127-129-133-137-141-149-172240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BECKHAM BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON HUGHES JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LATIMER LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-172240- Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW ELM TO 20 N BGM TO 15 ESE MSS. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NHC005-007-009-019-172240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON SULLIVAN NYC001-017-019-031-033-035-041-043-057-077-083-091-093-095-113- 115-172240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CHENANGO CLINTON ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER MONTGOMERY OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE WARREN WASHINGTON VTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 172240- Read more

MD 0839 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 0839 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Northern Utah and adjacent portions of far southeast Idaho and southwest Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171856Z - 172100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing across northern/northeast Utah into far southeast Idaho and southwest Wyoming may be capable of severe gusts through late afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 60s across northeast UT on the eastern fringe of a dense cirrus canopy. Based on forecast soundings, temperatures in the 65-70 F range are required for surface-based convective initiation, which appears to be ongoing based on recent convective trends. Although buoyancy will remain very modest across the region (250-500 J/kg), a 2-3 km deep, well-mixed boundary layer will enhance convective downdrafts and support the potential for strong to severe wind gusts (most likely between 55-70 mph). This threat will likely persist through early evening as lift ahead of an approaching upper wave increases and low-level temperatures continue to warm across the region. Convective coverage should gradually increase through late afternoon, but storm longevity and the overall convective environment should remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 41230942 40200947 39690973 39281044 39041097 39081136 39351165 39901206 40621230 41611241 42101231 42231212 42341180 42521083 42360991 41900959 41230942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-053-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-385-411- 435-463-465-172140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN BURNET EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MENARD REAL SAN SABA SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0838 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR 2CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...2central to southern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171832Z - 172030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely based on recent satellite trends, and will develop in an environment very conducive for severe convection. Watch issuance is probable as thunderstorm coverage/intensity begins to increase. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows steadily growing congestus along a confluence axis/differential heating boundary draped from central TX to the Rio Grande and on the northern slopes of the Sierra Del Carmen range in northern Mexico. Ahead of the building cumulus field, high-quality moisture (dewpoints in the mid 70s) and temperatures warming into the low to mid 90s are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 3000 J/kg. Despite weak low-level winds, increasing mid-level flow ahead of an approaching speed max is supporting effective shear values on the order of 45 to 55 knots. This convective environment is very favorable for organized supercells and may support severe gusts and hail as large as 2 to 3 inches in diameter. Weak forcing for ascent casts some uncertainty on storm coverage, but recent high-res guidance continues to suggest rapid thunderstorm development is likely between 20-22 UTC both along the boundary and off the northern Mexico mountains. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance is probable as deep convection begin to develop. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29710143 31070032 31749947 31909895 31789848 31509813 31159803 30839807 30579821 30469832 30189866 29069998 28870030 28760048 28900066 29120076 29340098 29450116 29540133 29630148 29710143 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ELM TO 25 WNW ITH TO 25 NE ITH TO 40 NNW ART. ..JEWELL..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NHC005-007-009-019-172140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON SULLIVAN NYC001-017-019-023-031-033-035-041-043-053-057-065-067-077-083- 089-091-093-095-097-099-101-109-113-115-123-172140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CHENANGO CLINTON CORTLAND ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON YATES Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more