Aggregator

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-049-053-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-385-411- 435-463-465-172140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BROWN BURNET EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MENARD REAL SAN SABA SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0838 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR 2CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...2central to southern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171832Z - 172030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely based on recent satellite trends, and will develop in an environment very conducive for severe convection. Watch issuance is probable as thunderstorm coverage/intensity begins to increase. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows steadily growing congestus along a confluence axis/differential heating boundary draped from central TX to the Rio Grande and on the northern slopes of the Sierra Del Carmen range in northern Mexico. Ahead of the building cumulus field, high-quality moisture (dewpoints in the mid 70s) and temperatures warming into the low to mid 90s are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 3000 J/kg. Despite weak low-level winds, increasing mid-level flow ahead of an approaching speed max is supporting effective shear values on the order of 45 to 55 knots. This convective environment is very favorable for organized supercells and may support severe gusts and hail as large as 2 to 3 inches in diameter. Weak forcing for ascent casts some uncertainty on storm coverage, but recent high-res guidance continues to suggest rapid thunderstorm development is likely between 20-22 UTC both along the boundary and off the northern Mexico mountains. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance is probable as deep convection begin to develop. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29710143 31070032 31749947 31909895 31789848 31509813 31159803 30839807 30579821 30469832 30189866 29069998 28870030 28760048 28900066 29120076 29340098 29450116 29540133 29630148 29710143 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ELM TO 25 WNW ITH TO 25 NE ITH TO 40 NNW ART. ..JEWELL..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...GYX...ALY...BUF...BGM...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NHC005-007-009-019-172140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON SULLIVAN NYC001-017-019-023-031-033-035-041-043-053-057-065-067-077-083- 089-091-093-095-097-099-101-109-113-115-123-172140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CHENANGO CLINTON CORTLAND ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON HAMILTON HERKIMER MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OTSEGO RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TOMPKINS WARREN WASHINGTON YATES Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more