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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Stronger mid-level winds on the southern periphery of a upper-trough will spread over parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains for Tuesday will continue to support a broad fire weather threat across the region. A developing lee trough along with downsloping into the adjacent High Plains will support meteorologically critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. However, with recent green up and ERCs below the 50th percentile in this area, fire spread potential is reduced. Even so, southwest winds of 25-30 mph and single digit relative humidity should support at least an elevated fire danger concern. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more