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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to be largely limited across the country for much of the extended period with the exception of the Great Basin on D3/Sunday. Long-range ensemble guidance depicts the gradual eastward progression of the upper ridge currently over the western CONUS followed by long-wave troughing through the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will continue to favor rain chances for much of the country, including parts of the Southwest where drought conditions are ongoing. Ensembles suggest that most regions will see chances for wetting rainfall, which should modulate fire weather concerns. The only exception to this is the West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest, where dry conditions will likely continue through next week. ...D3/Sunday - Nevada... The cutoff low currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to lift to the northeast on D3/Sunday as it phases with a shortwave trough embedded within a mean southwesterly flow regime. The phasing of these two features will promote surface pressure falls across the Great Basin with an attendant increase in westerly flow off of the northern Sierra Nevada and southerly winds out of the Mojave Desert. Medium-range guidance suggests winds between 15-20 mph are probable, and RH values may fall into the 20-25% range. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are likely with localized critical conditions possible. Although fuels are only modestly receptive across much of NV, warm/dry conditions through Sunday afternoon should promote fine fuel drying through the weekend. ..Moore.. 05/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 284 FOPZ11 KNHC 302043 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 11 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 564 WTPZ31 KNHC 302043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alvin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 109.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Alvin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and this motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Alvin will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...TROPICAL STORM ALVIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELL AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri May 30 the center of Alvin was located near 18.1, -109.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 088 WTPZ21 KNHC 302043 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012025 2100 UTC FRI MAY 30 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 109.0W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Groundwater permit holders in the Edwards Aquifer were shifted back to Stage 4 restrictions on May 29 as conditions improved slightly. Community Impact - San Antonio (Texas), May 30, 2025

The Edwards Aquifer Authority issued Stage 5 restrictions for those who have permits to pump water from the Edwards Aquifer. This is the first time Stage 5 has been reached or needed since the Edwards Aquifer Authority was established in 1993. San Antonio Water System water customers, however, were asked to continue to observe Stage 3 restrictions. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), May 23, 2025

Gov. Spencer Cox issued an Executive Order declaring a state of emergency in 17 counties due to drought conditions combined with low streamflow forecasts, increased water demand as temperatures rise. The counties in the declaration were Washington, Iron, San Juan, Kane, Juab, Emery, Grand, Beaver, Garfield, Piute, Millard, Tooele, Uintah, Carbon, Sevier, Sanpete and Wayne. The Drought Response Committee recommended that the governor issue a drought declaration at their recent meeting. Utahns were urged to conserve water. Utah Department of Natural Resources (Salt Lake City, Utah), April 24, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 30 01:16:11 UTC 2025.

MD 1039 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1039 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346... Valid 292342Z - 300115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening. DISCUSSION...A reservoir of strong instability currently resides across west central TX where upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE exists. Over the last few hours, scattered convection has gradually increased in areal coverage within convergent low-level northeasterly flow, over southeast NM into portions of the TX South Plains, along and just behind a pronounced cold front. This activity appears to be partly supported by a weak mid-level short-wave trough that will track east-southeast later this evening. While low-level response is not particularly strong ahead of this feature, ongoing convection should propagate east into the aforementioned high-instability air mass. Current thinking is robust thunderstorms may spread just east of ww0346, and an eastward extension appears warranted across SJT CWA. Very large hail has been noted with a supercell that is digging southeast across Dawson County TX, and this appears to be the primary threat into the mid-evening hours. ..Darrow.. 05/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33710450 33540005 30940006 31110450 33710450 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, significant severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of west and central Texas. Strong to locally severe storms are also possible tonight from parts of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. ...Parts of central/west TX... An intense supercell is moving southward this evening across the TX Permian Basin, with other cells noted into parts of the TX Big Country, in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Evolution of convection into later tonight across the region is somewhat uncertain, but if additional development can occur this evening along the front, then some upscale growth will be possible, potentially spreading a somewhat greater threat for severe gusts southeastward into south-central TX later tonight. In the short term, ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of very large hail and severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph). Some tornado threat could also develop with supercells near the surface boundary. ...AR into parts of the TN Valley... As a shortwave moves through the base of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough tonight, a gradually deepening surface low will move from eastern AR into southern KY. Scattered storms are expected to develop and move eastward in conjunction with the shortwave trough and surface low. Instability will likely remain relatively modest, but increasingly favorable wind profiles could support development of a couple supercells, with at least an isolated threat for all severe hazards. ...Southeast/Carolinas... Stronger convection has mostly become confined to near the FL East Coast and parts of NC. Modestly favorable deep-layer shear in advance of a shortwave trough moving across GA could still support redevelopment of a strong storm or two through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, significant severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of west and central Texas. Strong to locally severe storms are also possible tonight from parts of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. ...Parts of central/west TX... An intense supercell is moving southward this evening across the TX Permian Basin, with other cells noted into parts of the TX Big Country, in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Evolution of convection into later tonight across the region is somewhat uncertain, but if additional development can occur this evening along the front, then some upscale growth will be possible, potentially spreading a somewhat greater threat for severe gusts southeastward into south-central TX later tonight. In the short term, ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of very large hail and severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph). Some tornado threat could also develop with supercells near the surface boundary. ...AR into parts of the TN Valley... As a shortwave moves through the base of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough tonight, a gradually deepening surface low will move from eastern AR into southern KY. Scattered storms are expected to develop and move eastward in conjunction with the shortwave trough and surface low. Instability will likely remain relatively modest, but increasingly favorable wind profiles could support development of a couple supercells, with at least an isolated threat for all severe hazards. ...Southeast/Carolinas... Stronger convection has mostly become confined to near the FL East Coast and parts of NC. Modestly favorable deep-layer shear in advance of a shortwave trough moving across GA could still support redevelopment of a strong storm or two through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, significant severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of west and central Texas. Strong to locally severe storms are also possible tonight from parts of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. ...Parts of central/west TX... An intense supercell is moving southward this evening across the TX Permian Basin, with other cells noted into parts of the TX Big Country, in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. Evolution of convection into later tonight across the region is somewhat uncertain, but if additional development can occur this evening along the front, then some upscale growth will be possible, potentially spreading a somewhat greater threat for severe gusts southeastward into south-central TX later tonight. In the short term, ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of very large hail and severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph). Some tornado threat could also develop with supercells near the surface boundary. ...AR into parts of the TN Valley... As a shortwave moves through the base of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough tonight, a gradually deepening surface low will move from eastern AR into southern KY. Scattered storms are expected to develop and move eastward in conjunction with the shortwave trough and surface low. Instability will likely remain relatively modest, but increasingly favorable wind profiles could support development of a couple supercells, with at least an isolated threat for all severe hazards. ...Southeast/Carolinas... Stronger convection has mostly become confined to near the FL East Coast and parts of NC. Modestly favorable deep-layer shear in advance of a shortwave trough moving across GA could still support redevelopment of a strong storm or two through the evening. ..Dean.. 05/30/2025 Read more

WW 0346 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 346 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CNM TO 55 ENE HOB TO 50 NNW ABI. ..SPC..05/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 346 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-059-081-083-103-109-115-135-151-165-173-227-235-253- 301-317-329-335-353-371-383-389-399-415-417-431-441-451-461-475- 495-300140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CRANE CULBERSON DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION JONES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN REEVES RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR TOM GREEN UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0346 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 346 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CNM TO 55 ENE HOB TO 50 NNW ABI. ..SPC..05/30/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 346 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC003-033-059-081-083-103-109-115-135-151-165-173-227-235-253- 301-317-329-335-353-371-383-389-399-415-417-431-441-451-461-475- 495-300140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BORDEN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN CRANE CULBERSON DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GAINES GLASSCOCK HOWARD IRION JONES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN REEVES RUNNELS SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR TOM GREEN UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 346 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 292050Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 346 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico Far West into West and West-Central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the northwestern half of the Watch this afternoon. The stronger thunderstorms will likely become supercells and be capable of large to giant hail (1 to 3.5 inches in diameter). A tornado is possible early this evening before additional storms congeal into an eastward-moving thunderstorm cluster. Severe gusts ranging from 60-85 mph are possible with the more intense downdrafts within the cluster. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Carlsbad NM to 65 miles north northeast of San Angelo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Smith Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 29 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located several hundred miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The town of Silver City banned some fireworks, but the town’s Fire Department will still conduct a Fourth of July fireworks show for the public. The Town Council approved a resolution proclaiming extreme and severe drought conditions exist and banning the sale and use of fireworks specified under state law. The fire marshal of the Silver City Fire Department raised the town’s fire restrictions to Stage 2, effective Wednesday, May 28. The village of Santa Clara made a drought declaration, and the fire chief announced Stage 2 fire restrictions within the village. Silver City Daily Press (N.M.), May 29, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z ...Columbia Basin... An upper-level trough and associated cold front moving into Pacific Northwest will aid in bringing stronger winds into the Columbia Gorge/Columbia Basin on Day 3/Saturday. Breezy winds combined with afternoon relative humidity as low as 20 percent are expected prior to the arrival of a cooler, moister Pacific air mass heading into Day 4/Sunday. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with dry grasses being the primary fire spread fuel component. ...Sierra Nevada/Western Nevada... The incoming Pacific Northwest trough will support dry, downslope winds along and east of the Sierra Crest into western Nevada and high desert areas around the California/Nevada/Oregon border. Fuels will undergo swift drying as record heat develops from the Day 2/Friday to Day 3/Saturday period. The digging trough, along with a dry cold front passing through the region on Day 4/Sunday will continue to support Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions across far northeastern California into northwestern Nevada. A 40 percent probability area was added to highlight this weekend fire weather threat. ...Southwest... A cut-off upper-level low will usher in considerable subtropical and tropical moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin over the weekend. Although a dry sub-cloud layer will exist across southern Arizona Saturday, weak forcing and ample mid/upper level cloud cover will limit convective instability, limiting thunderstorm probabilities and dry lightning threat. Moisture plume will continue to increase through Day 4/Sunday resulting in anomalously high precipitable water values (>3 standard deviation) before upper-low finally shifts northeastward into the Four Corners region through Day 5/Monday. Widespread, wetting rainfall across portions of Arizona and New Mexico are expected where fuels remain driest, temporarily mitigating fire weather concerns into next week. ..Williams.. 05/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z ...Columbia Basin... An upper-level trough and associated cold front moving into Pacific Northwest will aid in bringing stronger winds into the Columbia Gorge/Columbia Basin on Day 3/Saturday. Breezy winds combined with afternoon relative humidity as low as 20 percent are expected prior to the arrival of a cooler, moister Pacific air mass heading into Day 4/Sunday. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with dry grasses being the primary fire spread fuel component. ...Sierra Nevada/Western Nevada... The incoming Pacific Northwest trough will support dry, downslope winds along and east of the Sierra Crest into western Nevada and high desert areas around the California/Nevada/Oregon border. Fuels will undergo swift drying as record heat develops from the Day 2/Friday to Day 3/Saturday period. The digging trough, along with a dry cold front passing through the region on Day 4/Sunday will continue to support Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions across far northeastern California into northwestern Nevada. A 40 percent probability area was added to highlight this weekend fire weather threat. ...Southwest... A cut-off upper-level low will usher in considerable subtropical and tropical moisture into the Lower Colorado River Basin over the weekend. Although a dry sub-cloud layer will exist across southern Arizona Saturday, weak forcing and ample mid/upper level cloud cover will limit convective instability, limiting thunderstorm probabilities and dry lightning threat. Moisture plume will continue to increase through Day 4/Sunday resulting in anomalously high precipitable water values (>3 standard deviation) before upper-low finally shifts northeastward into the Four Corners region through Day 5/Monday. Widespread, wetting rainfall across portions of Arizona and New Mexico are expected where fuels remain driest, temporarily mitigating fire weather concerns into next week. ..Williams.. 05/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more