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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to move through the Northwest with the southern extension of the trough eventually cutting off west of the northern California coast. Near Baja, the upper cyclone will begin to lift into the Southwest ahead of the Northwest/Great Basin trough. A front will stall in the northern Great Basin with a modest surface low deepening along the boundary. ...Nevada... Elevated to locally critical fire weather appears possible in northwest Nevada in the lee of the Sierra. Downslope winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. Duration of the 20+ mph winds (ensemble guidance shows this quite well) is the main limiting factor for adding a critical area. Winds in southern Nevada will also increase during the afternoon. Low-levels will be dry, but moisture/cloud influx driven by the approaching cyclone will generally limit the duration of fire weather concerns. Still, locally elevated conditions are possible, especially along the northern fringe of clouds/moisture. Scattered convection with at least some embedded thunderstorms are also possible across much of Nevada. PW values will generally be too high with southern extent and coverage/fuel receptiveness is questionable farther north. Dry lightning risk continues to be too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS INTO OK AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts remain possible tonight from southern Kansas across Oklahoma to the Red River. ...Central/southern Plains... Storms have been slow to develop along a weak surface boundary across southern KS. However, storm coverage is expected to increase with time later this evening as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough digs south-southeastward from Nebraska. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear, cooling temperatures aloft, and moderate buoyancy will support scattered strong to potentially severe storms, with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Elevated storms may tend to redevelop during the overnight hours, and it remains possible that one or more clusters will evolve and move south-southeastward toward the Red River before the end of the forecast period. Farther north, a few strong storms may persist through the evening from southeast NE into eastern KS and western MO. Effective shear is weaker in this region compared to areas to the southwest, but relatively cool temperatures aloft could support isolated hail with the strongest storms. ...VA/NC... A general weakening trend is expected to continue with ongoing convection across parts of VA/NC, with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. However, weak buoyancy and moderate deep-layer flow could support gusty winds and small hail with the strongest remaining convection this evening. ...South FL overnight... Most guidance suggests thunderstorm redevelopment in the vicinity of the southwest FL Peninsula prior to the end of the forecast period, as a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related jetlet approach the region from the northeast Gulf. Moderate buoyancy and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms, though any organized severe threat may not evolve until near/after 12Z. ..Dean.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS INTO OK AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts remain possible tonight from southern Kansas across Oklahoma to the Red River. ...Central/southern Plains... Storms have been slow to develop along a weak surface boundary across southern KS. However, storm coverage is expected to increase with time later this evening as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough digs south-southeastward from Nebraska. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear, cooling temperatures aloft, and moderate buoyancy will support scattered strong to potentially severe storms, with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Elevated storms may tend to redevelop during the overnight hours, and it remains possible that one or more clusters will evolve and move south-southeastward toward the Red River before the end of the forecast period. Farther north, a few strong storms may persist through the evening from southeast NE into eastern KS and western MO. Effective shear is weaker in this region compared to areas to the southwest, but relatively cool temperatures aloft could support isolated hail with the strongest storms. ...VA/NC... A general weakening trend is expected to continue with ongoing convection across parts of VA/NC, with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. However, weak buoyancy and moderate deep-layer flow could support gusty winds and small hail with the strongest remaining convection this evening. ...South FL overnight... Most guidance suggests thunderstorm redevelopment in the vicinity of the southwest FL Peninsula prior to the end of the forecast period, as a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related jetlet approach the region from the northeast Gulf. Moderate buoyancy and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms, though any organized severe threat may not evolve until near/after 12Z. ..Dean.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS INTO OK AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe gusts remain possible tonight from southern Kansas across Oklahoma to the Red River. ...Central/southern Plains... Storms have been slow to develop along a weak surface boundary across southern KS. However, storm coverage is expected to increase with time later this evening as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough digs south-southeastward from Nebraska. Increasing deep-layer flow/shear, cooling temperatures aloft, and moderate buoyancy will support scattered strong to potentially severe storms, with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Elevated storms may tend to redevelop during the overnight hours, and it remains possible that one or more clusters will evolve and move south-southeastward toward the Red River before the end of the forecast period. Farther north, a few strong storms may persist through the evening from southeast NE into eastern KS and western MO. Effective shear is weaker in this region compared to areas to the southwest, but relatively cool temperatures aloft could support isolated hail with the strongest storms. ...VA/NC... A general weakening trend is expected to continue with ongoing convection across parts of VA/NC, with the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. However, weak buoyancy and moderate deep-layer flow could support gusty winds and small hail with the strongest remaining convection this evening. ...South FL overnight... Most guidance suggests thunderstorm redevelopment in the vicinity of the southwest FL Peninsula prior to the end of the forecast period, as a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related jetlet approach the region from the northeast Gulf. Moderate buoyancy and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms, though any organized severe threat may not evolve until near/after 12Z. ..Dean.. 06/01/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312328
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico by the middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid/upper-level troughing is forecast to persist across the western CONUS through much of the upcoming week, which is forecast to foster appreciable rainfall across most areas along/east of the inter-mountain West, while it remains dry across the West Coast and the Pacific Northwest. Although, critical fire weather potential appears limited through much of the extended forecast, locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible across portions of the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday, as enhanced mid-level flow associated with the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the eastern Sierra Day 3/Monday, though relatively slow storm motions coupled with higher precipitable water values reduces confidence in introducing probabilities. ..Elliott.. 05/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1052 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 350... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MARYLAND...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Maryland...southeast Pennsylvania...central/northern Delaware...southern/central New Jersey Concerning...Tornado Watch 350... Valid 310037Z - 310230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 350 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will persist near the warm front as the surface low tracks northeastward. DISCUSSION...Storms that had shown organization/low-level rotation near the DC/Baltimore region have shown a slight downward trend in organization during the last hour. This is likely due in part to scattered storms/precipitation occurring and impacting inflow quality. Even so, KDOX/KBWI/KPHL VAD data still show sufficient low-level hodographs for a continued tornado threat this evening. The primary zone for this activity will stay near the warm front and with the surface low tracking northeastward. Low-level winds in Delaware and southern New Jersey have already shown a backing trend as the low approaches. As has been the case throughout today, low/mid-level lapse rates have been poor and will remain so this evening (evident from the 00Z observed WAL sounding). The moist airmass, strong mid-level ascent, and enough low-level theta-e advection to offset diurnal cooling should allow for damaging wind and tornado risk over the next few hours. This will especially be the case where temperatures can remain in the low 70s F with mid 60s F dewpoints. ..Wendt.. 05/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38147626 38217654 38387657 38737660 38917668 39097674 39347706 39457763 39597762 39777714 40177595 40287534 40347489 40167458 39727453 38967539 38147626 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms remain possible this evening across the Mid Atlantic, with a threat of wind damage and a couple of tornadoes. ...Mid Atlantic into southern New England... A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across the Allegheny Plateau region this evening. A strengthening surface cyclone will move eastward toward eastern PA and NJ this evening, and approach southern New England by the end of the forecast period. A cluster of storms with embedded supercell structures will accompany the deepening cyclone this evening. Hodographs remain relatively enlarged, with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2, and occasional low-level rotation may continue through the evening. Some tornado and wind-damage threat will spread east-northeast in conjunction with these storms into parts of southeast PA, DE, and NJ, before diminishing surface-based instability results in an eventual weakening trend later tonight. A couple strong storms cannot be ruled out overnight into southern New England. However, the severe threat appears increasingly limited with northeastward extent, due to a lack of surface-based instability, and only modest elevated buoyancy. ...Southeast WI into northern IL/northwest IN... Storms moving southward across eastern WI earlier produced marginally severe hail, and some localized threat for hail and strong gusts may spread southward into northeast IL/northwest IN this evening, in conjunction with a southward-moving midlevel shortwave trough. This activity should generally weaken later tonight as it encounters weaker instability. ...Carolinas into the Southeast and Florida... In the wake of earlier storms, weak convection is ongoing this evening across parts of the Carolinas, near a southeast-moving cold front. Substantial redevelopment appears unlikely due to the stabilizing influence of earlier convection, but strong low-level flow could support gusty winds with this weaker convection before it dissipates or moves offshore. Farther south/west, isolated strong storms remain possible this evening near the immediate Gulf coast near the front. With time, convection will spread into parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest storm organization and an isolated severe threat. ..Dean.. 05/31/2025 Read more

WW 0349 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SAV TO 45 SE CHS. ..SPC..05/31/25 ATTN...WFO...CHS...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 349 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC191-310140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MCINTOSH NCC031-310140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTERET AMZ135-152-154-156-158-250-350-352-354-374-310140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PAMLICO SOUND S OF OREGON INLET NC TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT TO 20 NM Read more

WW 0347 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 347 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE TOI TO 25 S AHN TO 35 W CAE TO 30 NE RDU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..WEINMAN..05/30/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 347 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-109-113-302140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK PIKE RUSSELL GAC009-021-023-033-053-073-079-081-091-093-107-125-141-153-163- 167-169-175-181-189-193-197-207-209-215-225-235-237-245-249-259- 261-263-265-269-271-279-283-289-301-303-307-309-315-319- 302140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BURKE CHATTAHOOCHEE COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CRISP DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL GLASCOCK HANCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES LAURENS Read more

WW 0348 Status Updates
WOUS20 KWNS 302250 WWASPC STATUS REPORT ON WW 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW GSO TO 10 ENE GSO TO 35 WSW AVC TO 40 NNE CHO TO 35 SW MRB TO 35 W MRB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049 ..WENDT..05/30/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...LWX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 348 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-302340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY NCC001-037-063-077-081-135-145-151-183-302340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE CHATHAM DURHAM GRANVILLE GUILFORD ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH WAKE VAC043-069-113-157-187-840-302340- VA Read more

WW 0350 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW AVC TO 20 SW RIC TO 35 NNW RIC TO 40 SW DCA TO 20 SSE MRB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051 ..WENDT..05/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 350 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-310040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-310040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-310040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT Read more

WW 350 TORNADO DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 302055Z - 310400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 350 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop late this afternoon and continue through the evening as storms progress from west to east across the Watch. A few supercells are forecast with an attendant risk for a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail. Additional thunderstorm bands may also pose a risk for damaging gusts before all of this activity moves east of the coast. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east of South Hill VA to 30 miles northwest of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 347...WW 348... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Smith Read more

580
ABPZ20 KNHC 302321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alvin, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week
offshore of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some development of
this system thereafter while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 20:45:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 May 2025 21:21:12 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 748 WTPZ41 KNHC 302044 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012025 200 PM MST Fri May 30 2025 The satellite presentation of Alvin has gradually degraded today. Alvin is entering an environment of strong south-southwesterly wind shear. Although much of the convection has been pushed off to the north and become elongated, the low-level center still appears to be underneath the southernmost portion of the central dense overcast. A pair of recent ASCAT passes missed the center, but still provided useful information that shows somewhat larger 34-kt radii, so these have been been expanded a bit. The ASCAT data show winds up to 40 kt about 50 n mi east of the center, but there is a good chance that stronger winds are still occurring slightly closer to the center where there was a gap in ASCAT data. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5/35 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 41-47 kt range. The intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory since the low-level center has not emerged from underneath the central dense overcast yet, and based on the ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwest, or 335/9 kt. Alvin is forecast to turn northward tonight as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, toward the east side of a mid-level cutoff low located just west of Baja California. Little change is made to the previous NHC track prediction, which lies down the middle of the consensus model envelope. Alvin will continue moving into an increasingly hostile environment of very strong wind shear, dry air, and sea-surface temperatures that will drop below 26C along Alvin's path in about 6 hours. These conditions should lead to Alvin losing its convection on Saturday, which is depicted by the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. There are no significant changes to the NHC intensity forecast, and Alvin is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, with dissipation predicted to occur in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 18.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 19.4N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 20.8N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 22.4N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen