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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes early Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, low-probability severe is apparent on Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Midwest, and on Thursday afternoon over the Northeast along/ahead of a decaying cold front. Another southern-stream shortwave impulse is progged to move east from the Southwest mid-week. But initial surface ridging downstream over the southern High Plains suggests the potential severe area will be limited. Greater potential may await D6-7/Friday-Saturday, as the ridging breaks down and zonal mid-level flow returns in the wake of the aforementioned impulse. This will yield strengthening and expansion of the EML east of the CO Plateau. ML guidance from both the latest 00Z SPC/NSSL GEFS and yesterday's 00Z NCAR ECENS highlight 15 percent probabilities on D6-7/Friday-Saturday across the TX Panhandle into western KS/OK. Potential MCVs embedded within this regime appear too minor at this time frame to reliably delineate an area, but bear watching for shorter-term outlooks. Read more

MD 1057 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...Western and Central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 010538Z - 010815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue through the early morning hours, and an increase in the threat is possible. If storms continue to intensify, then a severe weather watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...An east-to-west band of strong thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe, is ongoing across northern Oklahoma. The storms are located near a front, and are being supported by large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough moving southward through Kansas, evident on water vapor imagery. An axis of low-level moisture is located from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. This is contributing to MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across much of western Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings near the instability max have effective shear near 40 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should support a threat for isolated large hail within the stronger cores. A capping inversion is present, which will keep the storms elevated. However, an isolated severe gust will be possible with the strongest of cells. ..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36349981 36809917 36859821 36669720 36069657 35239660 34639689 34319758 34409908 34839980 35490001 36349981 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/01/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-037-039-043-049-051- 063-067-069-073-075-081-083-085-087-095-099-107-109-119-123-125- 133-137-141-149-010840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CREEK CUSTER DEWEY GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 351 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..06/01/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 351 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-037-039-043-049-051- 063-067-069-073-075-081-083-085-087-095-099-107-109-119-123-125- 133-137-141-149-010840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BLAINE BRYAN CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COMANCHE COTTON CREEK CUSTER DEWEY GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more