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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TX TO SOUTH WI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to early evening Tuesday. ...Southern Great Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. The accompanying surface low over KS should similarly track northeastward along an eastward-moving cold front, with the trailing portion sagging southeastward in TX. A strong and broad low-level jet on D2 will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at Tuesday morning within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will largely be weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be limited within the more narrow portion of the rich moisture plume, where strong southwesterlies are expected through much of the troposphere. This lowers confidence on the northern extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. Robust boundary-layer heating is most likely to occur across the TX portion of the warm-moist sector. Despite the warm mid-levels probably yielding only moderate buoyancy, a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels suggests slow-moving supercells/clusters are possible in north TX to central/eastern OK, especially later into the afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

WW 0351 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0351 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ...KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ...KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ...KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ...KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ...KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ...KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ...KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ...KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern Rockies along the international border over the northern Great Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains. Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes. ...KS to southern High Plains vicinity... Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development, likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear. ..Grams.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/eastern TX... In advance of a southeastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, elevated storms will likely be ongoing somewhere across north-central TX at the start of the period, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Guidance varies regarding the strength and longevity of morning convection, leading to some spread regarding the zone of organized storm potential later in the day. One scenario is for storms to persist and reintensify through the day, as convection impinges on an increasingly warm/moist and unstable environment. Another scenario is for morning convection to substantially weaken, resulting in potential for afternoon redevelopment along the slow-moving or stationary remnant outflow boundary. Some combination of these scenarios is also possible. If morning convection weakens or is not overly extensive, then the afternoon pre-storm environment will likely be characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy, with moderate midlevel northwesterlies providing sufficient effective shear for storm organization. Supercells capable of very large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible. Some tornado potential could evolve as well, especially in a scenario where supercells interact with a modifying outflow boundary. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from east-central MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough across the region will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near/south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, though confidence in the details of any such threat is currently low. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Convection is expected to redevelop early this morning and potentially spread into parts of the southwest FL Peninsula by the start of the forecast period. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization and a potential threat for isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are both expected to remain weak, and organized convection is not expected, but localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime into the early evening. ..Dean/Wendt.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/eastern TX... In advance of a southeastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, elevated storms will likely be ongoing somewhere across north-central TX at the start of the period, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Guidance varies regarding the strength and longevity of morning convection, leading to some spread regarding the zone of organized storm potential later in the day. One scenario is for storms to persist and reintensify through the day, as convection impinges on an increasingly warm/moist and unstable environment. Another scenario is for morning convection to substantially weaken, resulting in potential for afternoon redevelopment along the slow-moving or stationary remnant outflow boundary. Some combination of these scenarios is also possible. If morning convection weakens or is not overly extensive, then the afternoon pre-storm environment will likely be characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy, with moderate midlevel northwesterlies providing sufficient effective shear for storm organization. Supercells capable of very large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible. Some tornado potential could evolve as well, especially in a scenario where supercells interact with a modifying outflow boundary. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from east-central MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough across the region will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near/south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, though confidence in the details of any such threat is currently low. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Convection is expected to redevelop early this morning and potentially spread into parts of the southwest FL Peninsula by the start of the forecast period. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization and a potential threat for isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are both expected to remain weak, and organized convection is not expected, but localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime into the early evening. ..Dean/Wendt.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/eastern TX... In advance of a southeastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, elevated storms will likely be ongoing somewhere across north-central TX at the start of the period, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Guidance varies regarding the strength and longevity of morning convection, leading to some spread regarding the zone of organized storm potential later in the day. One scenario is for storms to persist and reintensify through the day, as convection impinges on an increasingly warm/moist and unstable environment. Another scenario is for morning convection to substantially weaken, resulting in potential for afternoon redevelopment along the slow-moving or stationary remnant outflow boundary. Some combination of these scenarios is also possible. If morning convection weakens or is not overly extensive, then the afternoon pre-storm environment will likely be characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy, with moderate midlevel northwesterlies providing sufficient effective shear for storm organization. Supercells capable of very large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible. Some tornado potential could evolve as well, especially in a scenario where supercells interact with a modifying outflow boundary. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from east-central MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough across the region will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near/south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, though confidence in the details of any such threat is currently low. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Convection is expected to redevelop early this morning and potentially spread into parts of the southwest FL Peninsula by the start of the forecast period. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization and a potential threat for isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are both expected to remain weak, and organized convection is not expected, but localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime into the early evening. ..Dean/Wendt.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/eastern TX... In advance of a southeastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, elevated storms will likely be ongoing somewhere across north-central TX at the start of the period, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Guidance varies regarding the strength and longevity of morning convection, leading to some spread regarding the zone of organized storm potential later in the day. One scenario is for storms to persist and reintensify through the day, as convection impinges on an increasingly warm/moist and unstable environment. Another scenario is for morning convection to substantially weaken, resulting in potential for afternoon redevelopment along the slow-moving or stationary remnant outflow boundary. Some combination of these scenarios is also possible. If morning convection weakens or is not overly extensive, then the afternoon pre-storm environment will likely be characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy, with moderate midlevel northwesterlies providing sufficient effective shear for storm organization. Supercells capable of very large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible. Some tornado potential could evolve as well, especially in a scenario where supercells interact with a modifying outflow boundary. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from east-central MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough across the region will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near/south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, though confidence in the details of any such threat is currently low. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Convection is expected to redevelop early this morning and potentially spread into parts of the southwest FL Peninsula by the start of the forecast period. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization and a potential threat for isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are both expected to remain weak, and organized convection is not expected, but localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime into the early evening. ..Dean/Wendt.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/eastern TX... In advance of a southeastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, elevated storms will likely be ongoing somewhere across north-central TX at the start of the period, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Guidance varies regarding the strength and longevity of morning convection, leading to some spread regarding the zone of organized storm potential later in the day. One scenario is for storms to persist and reintensify through the day, as convection impinges on an increasingly warm/moist and unstable environment. Another scenario is for morning convection to substantially weaken, resulting in potential for afternoon redevelopment along the slow-moving or stationary remnant outflow boundary. Some combination of these scenarios is also possible. If morning convection weakens or is not overly extensive, then the afternoon pre-storm environment will likely be characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy, with moderate midlevel northwesterlies providing sufficient effective shear for storm organization. Supercells capable of very large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible. Some tornado potential could evolve as well, especially in a scenario where supercells interact with a modifying outflow boundary. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from east-central MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough across the region will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near/south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, though confidence in the details of any such threat is currently low. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Convection is expected to redevelop early this morning and potentially spread into parts of the southwest FL Peninsula by the start of the forecast period. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization and a potential threat for isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are both expected to remain weak, and organized convection is not expected, but localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime into the early evening. ..Dean/Wendt.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible later today into this evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the mid-Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas, central and southern High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/eastern TX... In advance of a southeastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough, elevated storms will likely be ongoing somewhere across north-central TX at the start of the period, which could pose a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Guidance varies regarding the strength and longevity of morning convection, leading to some spread regarding the zone of organized storm potential later in the day. One scenario is for storms to persist and reintensify through the day, as convection impinges on an increasingly warm/moist and unstable environment. Another scenario is for morning convection to substantially weaken, resulting in potential for afternoon redevelopment along the slow-moving or stationary remnant outflow boundary. Some combination of these scenarios is also possible. If morning convection weakens or is not overly extensive, then the afternoon pre-storm environment will likely be characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy, with moderate midlevel northwesterlies providing sufficient effective shear for storm organization. Supercells capable of very large hail and localized severe gusts will be possible. Some tornado potential could evolve as well, especially in a scenario where supercells interact with a modifying outflow boundary. ...TN to the Carolinas... A quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from east-central MO southeastward into NC by early afternoon. Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cold temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough across the region will allow for weak to moderate destabilization near/south of the front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat, though confidence in the details of any such threat is currently low. ...Eastern ID/Southwest MT/Northwest WY... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. Depending on the extent of diurnal heating/destabilization, a localized corridor of somewhat greater potential may evolve with the broader Marginal Risk area. ...South FL... Convection is expected to redevelop early this morning and potentially spread into parts of the southwest FL Peninsula by the start of the forecast period. There will be some potential for modest diurnal heating and additional destabilization before storms spread across the rest of south FL through the morning into early afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization and a potential threat for isolated damaging gusts and hail. ...Eastern CO/NM... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern CO/NM. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern CA into southern/central AZ... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern CA/AZ later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms will be possible. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon from parts of NV into western UT. Buoyancy and shear are both expected to remain weak, and organized convection is not expected, but localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime into the early evening. ..Dean/Wendt.. 06/01/2025 Read more