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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...Synopsis... An upper-level split flow regime on Monday will be characterized by a northern stream shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains, while a southern stream shortwave trough develops east from the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will modestly deepen over the central Plains, with a lee trough extending southward across the southern High Plains. A cold front also will be oriented northeast to southwest from northern MN into northeast CO by 00z. The front will develop southeast into Tuesday morning across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Both the surface cold front and the southern High Plains lee trough will focus thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening. ...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop along a somewhat narrow corridor ahead of the southeast-advancing cold front during the afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will modestly increase into the evening as height falls overspread the region. Strong heating will promote a deeply mixed boundary amid low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front (lower dewpoints expected further west across CO/WY/NE border area). Initial thunderstorms are likely to develop in an upslope flow regime across the CO/WY/NE border vicinity. High-based supercells capable of severe gusts and hail will be possible. Additional storm development is likely later in the afternoon into the evening along the cold front from central NE into MN. The stronger southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to lag behind the front, and developing convection may quickly move to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel wind profiles. This will likely result in multicell clusters/linear segments capable of producing damaging gusts and large hail in stronger embedded cores. Instability will decrease with increasing inhibition with eastward extent during the evening and severe potential should wane after 03-06z. ...KS to the southern High Plains... Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected to develop over NM/CO in a drier and modestly unstable airmass compared to further east, but aided by steep lapse rates and several impulses ejecting across the southern Rockies ahead of the main upper shortwave trough. Strong outflow winds and hail may occur with this activity as it spreads east across the High Plains. This activity will encounter a corridor of deeper boundary-layer moisture and strong instability from western KS into parts of the Panhandles and western OK toward late afternoon/early evening. At the same time, a low-level jet will be increasing over the southern Plains. As a result, some organization/consolidation of thunderstorm clusters into bowing segments will be possible. This may result in a short window of increased severe gust potential across portions of western KS into western OK. The eastward extent of severe potential will likely be limited across central KS/OK and points east due to modest vertical shear, and as inhibition increases in the 03-06z time frame. ..Leitman.. 06/01/2025 Read more

900
ABPZ20 KNHC 011714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011714
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be at least marginally
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Middle Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/East Texas... A residual small cluster of storms has persisted through late morning across northeast Texas. Additional and increasingly surface-based storm development will be possible this afternoon, particularly into mid/late afternoon. This will be focused where outflow/differential heating influences interface with an increasingly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) environment near a northwest/southeast-oriented synoptic boundary and related instability gradient. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow could have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. These storms may cluster later today, or otherwise persist south-southeastward toward east-central/southeast Texas through early and mid-evening including the I-35/I-45 corridors. ...Tennessee to the Carolinas... Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cool temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization ahead of a weak surface wave and advancing front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent centered on parts of North Carolina. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. This development should generally focus near the Montana/Idaho/Wyoming border vicinity as well as near/east of the Bighorns. ...South Florida... Influenced by moderately strong westerlies aloft, some strong/locally severe storms may remain possible today along and south of a boundary that has been effectively reinforced by early day storms. ...Eastern Colorado/New Mexico... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern Colorado/New Mexico. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern California into southern/central Arizona... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern California/Arizona later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms could occur. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of Nevada into western Utah. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Middle Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/East Texas... A residual small cluster of storms has persisted through late morning across northeast Texas. Additional and increasingly surface-based storm development will be possible this afternoon, particularly into mid/late afternoon. This will be focused where outflow/differential heating influences interface with an increasingly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) environment near a northwest/southeast-oriented synoptic boundary and related instability gradient. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow could have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. These storms may cluster later today, or otherwise persist south-southeastward toward east-central/southeast Texas through early and mid-evening including the I-35/I-45 corridors. ...Tennessee to the Carolinas... Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cool temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization ahead of a weak surface wave and advancing front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent centered on parts of North Carolina. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. This development should generally focus near the Montana/Idaho/Wyoming border vicinity as well as near/east of the Bighorns. ...South Florida... Influenced by moderately strong westerlies aloft, some strong/locally severe storms may remain possible today along and south of a boundary that has been effectively reinforced by early day storms. ...Eastern Colorado/New Mexico... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern Colorado/New Mexico. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern California into southern/central Arizona... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern California/Arizona later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms could occur. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of Nevada into western Utah. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 06/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening across central and east Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Middle Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida. ...Central/East Texas... A residual small cluster of storms has persisted through late morning across northeast Texas. Additional and increasingly surface-based storm development will be possible this afternoon, particularly into mid/late afternoon. This will be focused where outflow/differential heating influences interface with an increasingly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) environment near a northwest/southeast-oriented synoptic boundary and related instability gradient. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells, posing a risk for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. A sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow could have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented low-level shear. These storms may cluster later today, or otherwise persist south-southeastward toward east-central/southeast Texas through early and mid-evening including the I-35/I-45 corridors. ...Tennessee to the Carolinas... Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating combined with seasonably cool temperatures aloft associated with a deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate destabilization ahead of a weak surface wave and advancing front. Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon, with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent centered on parts of North Carolina. Modestly favorable effective shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. This development should generally focus near the Montana/Idaho/Wyoming border vicinity as well as near/east of the Bighorns. ...South Florida... Influenced by moderately strong westerlies aloft, some strong/locally severe storms may remain possible today along and south of a boundary that has been effectively reinforced by early day storms. ...Eastern Colorado/New Mexico... Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along and east of the higher terrain in eastern Colorado/New Mexico. While deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon. Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with strong to locally severe outflow winds. ...Southern California into southern/central Arizona... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of southern California/Arizona later today. Cool temperatures aloft will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few strong storms could occur. ...Great Basin... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from parts of Nevada into western Utah. Buoyancy and shear are expected to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected, however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this regime through early evening. ..Guyer/Marsh.. 06/01/2025 Read more