SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds remain possible
this afternoon and evening across central and east Texas. More
isolated severe thunderstorms are still possible across parts of the
Middle Tennessee Valley and Carolinas, High Plains, northern
Rockies, and south Florida.
...20Z Update...
Much of the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. A pair
of supercells persist across portions of eastern TX. To the
northwest of these storms resides a baroclinic boundary. Though
overall forcing for ascent is weak across the southern Plains, the
presence of the boundary, in tandem with strong diurnal heating, may
support additional strong to severe thunderstorm development across
parts of central into eastern TX. Severe gusts and large hail
(perhaps exceeding 2 inches in diameter at times) will be the main
threats.
Similarly, strong surface heating across the Middle TN Valley into
the Carolinas, central High Plains, and northern Rockies, will
support strong storm development through the afternoon, with severe
hail/wind the primary hazards. Scattered thunderstorm development is
ongoing across central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, and a
couple instances of hail/strong wind gusts remain possible for at
least a few more hours.
..Squitieri.. 06/01/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025/
...Central/East Texas...
A residual small cluster of storms has persisted through late
morning across northeast Texas. Additional and increasingly
surface-based storm development will be possible this afternoon,
particularly into mid/late afternoon. This will be focused where
outflow/differential heating influences interface with an
increasingly unstable (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) environment near a
northwest/southeast-oriented synoptic boundary and related
instability gradient. Northwesterly deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt
will be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells,
posing a risk for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. A
sustained storm interacting with residual/modifying outflow could
have some tornado potential in the presence of locally-augmented
low-level shear. These storms may cluster later today, or otherwise
persist south-southeastward toward east-central/southeast Texas
through early and mid-evening including the I-35/I-45 corridors.
...Tennessee to the Carolinas...
Despite relatively modest low-level moisture, diurnal heating
combined with seasonably cool temperatures aloft associated with a
deep upper-level trough will allow for weak to moderate
destabilization ahead of a weak surface wave and advancing front.
Isolated to scattered storm development is expected this afternoon,
with somewhat greater coverage expected with eastward extent
centered on parts of North Carolina. Modestly favorable effective
shear (generally 25-30 kt) may support occasionally organized storms
capable of isolated damaging wind and hail. Any longer-lived
clusters could pose a more concentrated wind-damage threat.
...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move eastward from the
Pacific Northwest toward the northern Rockies by this evening. Weak
to locally moderate buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear will
support the potential for somewhat organized cells/clusters with an
attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. This development
should generally focus near the Montana/Idaho/Wyoming border
vicinity as well as near/east of the Bighorns.
...South Florida...
Influenced by moderately strong westerlies aloft, some
strong/locally severe storms may remain possible today along and
south of a boundary that has been effectively reinforced by early
day storms.
...Eastern Colorado/New Mexico...
Scattered storms are again expected this afternoon and evening along
and east of the higher terrain in eastern Colorado/New Mexico. While
deep-layer flow/shear will be relatively modest, guidance suggests
some increase in low-level moisture and instability by afternoon.
Initial storms could pose a threat for isolated hail and strong to
severe gusts. There is some potential for one or more loosely
organized clusters to develop by evening and spread eastward with
strong to locally severe outflow winds.
...Southern California into southern/central Arizona...
A mid/upper-level cyclone will move northeastward into parts of
southern California/Arizona later today. Cool temperatures aloft
will overspread the region, but relatively widespread cloudiness and
precipitation will tend to limit destabilization. If pockets of
locally stronger heating/destabilization can develop, then a few
strong storms could occur.
...Great Basin...
High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon from
parts of Nevada into western Utah. Buoyancy and shear are expected
to remain weak, and organized thunderstorms are not expected,
however localized strong outflow gusts will be possible within this
regime through early evening.
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