Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will be present across much of the northern tier states today. A cutoff upper low will slowly sag southeastward off the southern California coast. High pressure will move into the Northwest and northern Rockies. A surface front will stall in the central/southern Great Basin. ...Sacramento Valley... A few hours of elevated fire weather appears probable in the northern Sacramento Valley during the morning into the early afternoon. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur along with RH falling to 15-20%. While fuels are only marginally receptive (ERCs just not reaching the 70th percentile per ONCC), the critical meteorological conditions suggest at least some risk for fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will be present across much of the northern tier states today. A cutoff upper low will slowly sag southeastward off the southern California coast. High pressure will move into the Northwest and northern Rockies. A surface front will stall in the central/southern Great Basin. ...Sacramento Valley... A few hours of elevated fire weather appears probable in the northern Sacramento Valley during the morning into the early afternoon. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur along with RH falling to 15-20%. While fuels are only marginally receptive (ERCs just not reaching the 70th percentile per ONCC), the critical meteorological conditions suggest at least some risk for fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will be present across much of the northern tier states today. A cutoff upper low will slowly sag southeastward off the southern California coast. High pressure will move into the Northwest and northern Rockies. A surface front will stall in the central/southern Great Basin. ...Sacramento Valley... A few hours of elevated fire weather appears probable in the northern Sacramento Valley during the morning into the early afternoon. Northerly winds of 15-25 mph will occur along with RH falling to 15-20%. While fuels are only marginally receptive (ERCs just not reaching the 70th percentile per ONCC), the critical meteorological conditions suggest at least some risk for fire spread. ..Wendt.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ...TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ..Grams.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the High Plains into southwestern Minnesota. Severe gusts and large hail are the expected hazards. ...High Plains to southwestern MN... Strong northern-stream short-wave trough is currently located over southeastern BC into the northern inter mountain region. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern MT/WY by 03/00z as 60+kt 500mb flow translates into the northern Dakotas. During the latter half of the period, mid-level heights will be suppressed across this region and a pronounced surface anticyclone will force a strong cold front to surge across the eastern Dakotas/NE into the upper MS Valley. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead of the cold front with the steepest 0-3km lapse rates forecast across the central High Plains, and across portions of northern MN by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached just ahead of the surging cold front by 21-22z, and scattered convection should readily develop along the wind shift. While some supercell threat is expected, especially early in the convective evolution, storm mergers and potential clustering/line segments favor a hail risk transitioning to more wind. Farther south into the TX Panhandle region, a well-defined upper low is beginning to eject northeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will open up and progress into the southern High Plains by late evening. Large-scale forcing ahead of the short wave will prove instrumental in aiding scattered robust convection across much of the southern High Plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings are not particularly noteworthy, but amply buoyant and adequately sheared for some convective organization. While some hail risk appears possible early, locally damaging winds may be more common as convection spreads east during the evening hours, aided by southern-stream short wave. ...South Florida... Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast across the lower MS Valley, and will progress into the eastern Gulf Basin by late afternoon. Some increase in mid-level flow is expected across the southern Peninsula, along with a LLJ by early evening across southeast FL. This synoptic evolution favors a considerable amount of convection across this region as large-scale support increases ahead of the short wave. Scattered-widespread thunderstorms, beginning as early as 18z, are expected. Some of this activity may be robust at times. Have introduced a MRGL Risk to account for a local wind/hail threat with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/02/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late
portions of this week. Once it forms, the disturbance is expected to
move generally westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 1070 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...North-central into east-central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352... Valid 020257Z - 020430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352 continues. SUMMARY...At least an isolated severe threat may continue through Midnight CDT. DISCUSSION...Increasing CINH has resulted in a decrease in storm coverage across parts of north-central into east-central TX, though one ongoing supercell is moving southward east of Waco. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support a threat of large hail and locally gusty winds with this cell for as long as it can persist. Farther north, earlier hail-producing storms near the Metroplex have weakened, though some redevelopment continues to the cool side of a westward-moving outflow across north-central TX. While the northernmost convection is somewhat elevated, moderate buoyancy could still support a localized hail threat with redeveloping storms through late evening, before convection generally subsides overnight. Parts of WW 352 have been extended in time to Midnight CDT in order to cover the lingering severe threat across the region. ..Dean.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32969846 33049767 32969650 32049571 31439504 31189482 30969472 30799472 30539474 30189533 29969624 30239653 30989709 31509755 32039806 32329841 32479865 32789873 32969846 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1069 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025 Areas affected...North-central/northeast Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020105Z - 020230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Severe winds and isolated large hail are possible with storms this evening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Outflow pushing westward has recently interacted with portions of the Big Horns and promoted rather rapid convective development despite very modest buoyancy. Additional activity has also developed along the surface boundary. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 00Z RIW sounding and 25-30 kts of shear, a couple strong to severe storms are possible early this evening. The primary concern would be severe wind gusts with isolated large hail possible as well. A cell in Natrona county did show some signs of weak low-level rotation. This is likely due to the modest surface vorticity along the boundary. The tornado threat is quite low, but a brief spin-up in this scenario could occur. ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43610794 44430729 44720594 44860483 44700453 44190469 43840503 43190569 42770710 42950760 43610794 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more