Aggregator

WW 0339 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PIB TO 40 ENE MEI. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-035-047-053-063-065-091-097-099-105-119-129-131- 280040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA GREENE HALE MARENGO MOBILE MONROE PERRY SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-113-280040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA LAC103-117-280040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 339 SEVERE TSTM AL FL LA MS CW 272205Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Far Western Florida Pahandle Extreme Eastern Louisiana Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing across southeast Mississippi and adjacent far eastern Louisiana, and the environment across the region supports strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. These thunderstorms will likely persist for at least the next several hours, with some chance for upscale growth into a convective line as they move into more of southwest/coastal Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Meridian MS to 35 miles west of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 337...WW 338... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0338 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 338 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 338 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-280040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-043-103-105-109-135-137-165-235-243-271-301-323-371-377- 383-389-413-435-443-451-461-465-475-495-280040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BREWSTER CRANE CROCKETT CULBERSON ECTOR EDWARDS GAINES IRION JEFF DAVIS KINNEY LOVING MAVERICK PECOS PRESIDIO REAGAN REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON VAL VERDE WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 338 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 272100Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 338 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico Southwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms including supercells will continue to develop across the region, with large hail as the primary hazard. Some storm clusters may eventually develop into this evening, with severe-wind potential as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south southwest of Guadalupe Pass TX to 65 miles northeast of Del Rio TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 337... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

892
ABPZ20 KNHC 272321
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue May 27 2025

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of the Southern Coast of Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico, but the system still lacks a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are favorable
for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday as the low moves
generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 1013 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272237Z - 272330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and gusty winds with thunderstorms moving out of the high terrain this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across the Front Range this afternoon, with occasional stronger cores evident on radar. Activity should move out of the high terrain across eastern Colorado this evening. Forecast soundings are characterized by steep lapse rates, modest deep layer shear, and sufficient instability to promote some instances of severe hail and gusty winds. Guidance also suggests some potential for clustering and attempts at upscale growth, which would increase wind potential. Trends will be monitored this evening across this region for watch potential, but confidence in convective evolution is low at this time. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39420537 40030553 40270536 40660467 40750406 40340338 39530267 38580207 37450207 37040243 37000375 37410425 39420537 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1012 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...central Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272144Z - 272315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail with initial cells should transition to mainly damaging wind potential with sporadic strong to localized severe gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is being considered. DISCUSSION...Increasing convective development has occurred across mainly south MS trailing a bit into far eastern LA, in association with a remnant MCV drifting east. Amid weak mid-level lapse rates, substantial boundary-layer heating has occurred across this region, but remains more muted eastward into AL in the wake of an MCS now in GA. Still, late-day insolation will help boost temperatures over southwest AL and could sustained a lower-end, but persistent severe threat over the next several hours. Moderate speed shear within a nearly unidirectional west-southwesterly wind profile will foster hail production in initial discrete to semi-discrete cells. The aforementioned weak lapse rates and warm thermodynamic profiles will likely temper hail magnitudes, but severe sizes are possible. Afternoon model guidance suggests potential for upscale growth into an organized cluster/small MCS to the east-southeast. Given the moist boundary layer, this should yield sporadic strong to localized severe gusts and an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32058927 32168869 32088805 31888771 31598735 30998716 30508727 29968886 30048946 30379015 30879031 31588982 32058927 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0337 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MAI TO 40 SSW MCN TO 40 S AHN. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-023-091-153-167-169-175-235-289-303-315-319-272340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BLECKLEY DODGE HOUSTON JOHNSON JONES LAURENS PULASKI TWIGGS WASHINGTON WILCOX WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0337 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MAI TO 40 SSW MCN TO 40 S AHN. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-023-091-153-167-169-175-235-289-303-315-319-272340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BLECKLEY DODGE HOUSTON JOHNSON JONES LAURENS PULASKI TWIGGS WASHINGTON WILCOX WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 337 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 271800Z - 280100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East and Southeast Alabama Western and Central Georgia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 60 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of storms will continue generally eastward across the region this afternoon and early evening with wind damage as the main severe hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Macon GA to 25 miles south southwest of Dothan AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1011 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1011 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 337... Valid 272039Z - 272215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 337 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will persist across watch 337 this afternoon and into the evening. The need for a downstream watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Damaging wind reports have been relatively isolated thus far along the squall line in eastern Alabama. However, a more unstable airmass is present across central Georgia. Additional showers/weak thunderstorms are developing ahead of the line, indicating the uncapped airmass ahead of the storms. In addition, some storms have developed along the wedge front which is currently across central Georgia. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with the greatest threat likely along this wedge front where convergence will be maximized. It is unclear whether a watch will be needed downstream of watch 337, but a downstream watch is possible if the ongoing line of storms or isolated storms along the wedge front, intensify. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 33398402 33128235 32598120 32178090 31338141 30958234 30798423 30988506 31158551 31648548 32608504 33398402 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0339 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0339 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more