Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions will remain possible behind a cold front across parts of the northern Plains Saturday. However, only marginal low RH, poorly overlapped with the gusty winds and dry fuels suggests more widespread concerns are unlikely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper pattern will amplify to a degree over the central/eastern CONUS, with a mid-level trough deepening across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region as a preceding mid-level trough traverses the OH Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Like Day 1, a moist low-level airmass and/or scattered to widespread thunderstorms across several locales east of the Rockies should limit wildfire-spread potential. A cold front should sweep across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is not expected to dip to Elevated/Critical thresholds. As such, while a localized wildfire start cannot be ruled out, conditions appear too marginal to warrant the introduction of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions will remain possible behind a cold front across parts of the northern Plains Saturday. However, only marginal low RH, poorly overlapped with the gusty winds and dry fuels suggests more widespread concerns are unlikely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper pattern will amplify to a degree over the central/eastern CONUS, with a mid-level trough deepening across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region as a preceding mid-level trough traverses the OH Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Like Day 1, a moist low-level airmass and/or scattered to widespread thunderstorms across several locales east of the Rockies should limit wildfire-spread potential. A cold front should sweep across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is not expected to dip to Elevated/Critical thresholds. As such, while a localized wildfire start cannot be ruled out, conditions appear too marginal to warrant the introduction of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions will remain possible behind a cold front across parts of the northern Plains Saturday. However, only marginal low RH, poorly overlapped with the gusty winds and dry fuels suggests more widespread concerns are unlikely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper pattern will amplify to a degree over the central/eastern CONUS, with a mid-level trough deepening across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region as a preceding mid-level trough traverses the OH Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Like Day 1, a moist low-level airmass and/or scattered to widespread thunderstorms across several locales east of the Rockies should limit wildfire-spread potential. A cold front should sweep across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is not expected to dip to Elevated/Critical thresholds. As such, while a localized wildfire start cannot be ruled out, conditions appear too marginal to warrant the introduction of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions will remain possible behind a cold front across parts of the northern Plains Saturday. However, only marginal low RH, poorly overlapped with the gusty winds and dry fuels suggests more widespread concerns are unlikely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper pattern will amplify to a degree over the central/eastern CONUS, with a mid-level trough deepening across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region as a preceding mid-level trough traverses the OH Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Like Day 1, a moist low-level airmass and/or scattered to widespread thunderstorms across several locales east of the Rockies should limit wildfire-spread potential. A cold front should sweep across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is not expected to dip to Elevated/Critical thresholds. As such, while a localized wildfire start cannot be ruled out, conditions appear too marginal to warrant the introduction of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions will remain possible behind a cold front across parts of the northern Plains Saturday. However, only marginal low RH, poorly overlapped with the gusty winds and dry fuels suggests more widespread concerns are unlikely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper pattern will amplify to a degree over the central/eastern CONUS, with a mid-level trough deepening across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region as a preceding mid-level trough traverses the OH Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Like Day 1, a moist low-level airmass and/or scattered to widespread thunderstorms across several locales east of the Rockies should limit wildfire-spread potential. A cold front should sweep across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is not expected to dip to Elevated/Critical thresholds. As such, while a localized wildfire start cannot be ruled out, conditions appear too marginal to warrant the introduction of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0378 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0378 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0378 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma from late afternoon to evening on Sunday. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible elsewhere in the South-Central States and along the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will develop southeast on Sunday, enveloping much of the central portion of the CONUS. A secondary shortwave impulse is forecast to migrate through northwest flow on the southern periphery of the upper cyclone across the southern Plains. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper troughing will develop east across the eastern Midwest to the Southeast and Appalachians. ...Southern Plains... Modest height falls during the afternoon and into the evening will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft across northwest TX and OK. At the surface, a cold front will develop southeast across the central Plains, impinging on the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK by late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain rich boundary layer moisture amid strong heating. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will be in place. This will result in a corridor of strong to extreme MLCAPE from the TX Panhandle southeastward toward the Red River. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated hodographs are evident in forecast soundings. Initial thunderstorm development is likely near northwest OK and adjacent portions of the OK/TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Rapid upscale growth/updraft consolidation is expected as a low-level jet develops by early evening. This overall pattern is favorable for a developing bowing MCS with possible significant severe wind gusts spreading southeast along the instability/theta-e gradient oriented over northwest TX/southwest OK. Large to very large hail is also possible within stronger embedded cores or any cells that can remain discrete. This system should continue east toward the ArkLaTex into the nighttime hours, and depending on model trends, higher probabilities may eventually be needed a bit further east. ...Southeast KS/MO/IL vicinity... The surface front extending south/southwest from a low over Ontario will develop southeast through the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a narrow corridor of mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints is forecast across northern IL into eastern WI, with somewhat higher dewpoints possible into northern/central MO and southeast KS. Moderate instability may develop where better quality boundary layer moisture resides, but decrease with northward extent toward Lake Michigan. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms mainly capable of damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast... Mesoscale details remain uncertain across the Southeast into the NC/VA Piedmont/Coastal Plain given multiple rounds of convection expected in the days prior to Sunday. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place as a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft overspreads the region. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon/evening, mainly posing a risk for damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more