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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions will remain possible behind a cold front across parts of the northern Plains Saturday. However, only marginal low RH, poorly overlapped with the gusty winds and dry fuels suggests more widespread concerns are unlikely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper pattern will amplify to a degree over the central/eastern CONUS, with a mid-level trough deepening across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region as a preceding mid-level trough traverses the OH Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Like Day 1, a moist low-level airmass and/or scattered to widespread thunderstorms across several locales east of the Rockies should limit wildfire-spread potential. A cold front should sweep across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is not expected to dip to Elevated/Critical thresholds. As such, while a localized wildfire start cannot be ruled out, conditions appear too marginal to warrant the introduction of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions will remain possible behind a cold front across parts of the northern Plains Saturday. However, only marginal low RH, poorly overlapped with the gusty winds and dry fuels suggests more widespread concerns are unlikely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper pattern will amplify to a degree over the central/eastern CONUS, with a mid-level trough deepening across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region as a preceding mid-level trough traverses the OH Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Like Day 1, a moist low-level airmass and/or scattered to widespread thunderstorms across several locales east of the Rockies should limit wildfire-spread potential. A cold front should sweep across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is not expected to dip to Elevated/Critical thresholds. As such, while a localized wildfire start cannot be ruled out, conditions appear too marginal to warrant the introduction of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions will remain possible behind a cold front across parts of the northern Plains Saturday. However, only marginal low RH, poorly overlapped with the gusty winds and dry fuels suggests more widespread concerns are unlikely. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper pattern will amplify to a degree over the central/eastern CONUS, with a mid-level trough deepening across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region as a preceding mid-level trough traverses the OH Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Like Day 1, a moist low-level airmass and/or scattered to widespread thunderstorms across several locales east of the Rockies should limit wildfire-spread potential. A cold front should sweep across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains tomorrow afternoon. However, RH is not expected to dip to Elevated/Critical thresholds. As such, while a localized wildfire start cannot be ruled out, conditions appear too marginal to warrant the introduction of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more