Aggregator

MD 1151 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 376... FOR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN PARTS OF WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1151 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Western Kentucky and northern parts of western/middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 376... Valid 062029Z - 062130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 376 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for occasional wind damage and a couple of tornadoes continues. DISCUSSION...An increasingly complex surface pattern is evolving within tornado watch 376, as a result of multiple bands/clusters of storms and associated rain-cooled outflow. The convective clusters are occurring east of a remnant MCV approaching the lower OH Valley, on the northern edge of an unstable warm sector. Regional VWPs show 40-50 kt midlevel flow with the MCV (and associated deep-layer vertical shear), but thus far low-level hodograph curvature/SRH has remained somewhat limited where the majority of the convection is occurring. There is still some potential for embedded circulations with an attendant tornado threat where favorable storm/boundary interactions occur. ..Thompson.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 37448711 37108677 36848665 36618673 36268701 36108768 35988828 36048907 36348972 36608966 36708933 36558877 36728848 37178839 37578851 37828824 37708769 37448711 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E POF TO 40 S PAH TO 30 ESE PAH TO 40 SW EVV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 ..THOMPSON..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-033-035-047-055-061-075-085-107-141-143-149-177-183-213- 219-221-227-233-062140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN EDMONSON FULTON GRAYSON HOPKINS LOGAN LYON MCLEAN MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD TRIGG WARREN WEBSTER MOC143-155-062140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW MADRID PEMISCOT Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E POF TO 40 S PAH TO 30 ESE PAH TO 40 SW EVV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 ..THOMPSON..06/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 376 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-033-035-047-055-061-075-085-107-141-143-149-177-183-213- 219-221-227-233-062140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN CRITTENDEN EDMONSON FULTON GRAYSON HOPKINS LOGAN LYON MCLEAN MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD TRIGG WARREN WEBSTER MOC143-155-062140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW MADRID PEMISCOT Read more

MD 1149 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...northern/central Mississippi and far northeastern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061911Z - 062015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with locally damaging wind possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A remnant MCV and trailing outflow continue to shift southeastward across Mississippi and Arkansas this afternoon. Thunderstorms along the leading edge of the remnant outflow in Mississippi have shown some increase in lightning and echo tops over the last hour as they approach a very moist and unstable air mass across northern Mississippi. Storms along the outflow may attempt to organize and pose some risk for damaging wind as they move south and eastward. Overall, the shear across northern Mississippi is weak which may limit a more organized severe risk likely precluding the need for a watch. ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34958986 34968971 34938812 34708793 34248804 33888826 33488851 33168899 33048981 33059032 33079083 33429103 33669109 34119091 34958986 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1148 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN COLORADO...PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...eastern Colorado...portions of western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 061839Z - 062015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes likely later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows deepening cu along the Front Range in Colorado over the last hour, with a few lightning flashes near the Denver metro. CAM guidance suggests additional thunderstorm development is likely across the Front Range into eastern Colorado over the next 1-2 hours. Some MLCIN remains across portions of southeastern Colorado but warming temperatures have climbed into the 70s, nearing convective temperature in morning forecast soundings. The profiles within this region are characterized by linear and elongated hodographs, with strong deep layer shear around 45-55 kts (strongest across southeastern Colorado. While moisture is modest, with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, strong deep layer shear should aid in organized supercells capable of large to very large hail. Given the linear hodograph profiles, splitting supercells will favored. Low-level shear is marginal (0-1 SRH around 50-100 m2/s2) but storm interactions and interactions with terrain may lead to locally increased SRH and potential for a tornado or two. Clustering cells may lead to an increasing damaging wind threat as the afternoon/evening progresses. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed in the next hour to cover these threats. ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37090391 36970324 37040257 37270235 38330198 38760170 39130170 39510185 39680205 39850229 40130268 40440316 40610385 40610443 40390493 39950513 39370528 38770522 38240500 37900465 37380423 37090391 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... Few changes needed with this update cycle as forecast remains on track per latest observational/short-term guidance. Made some upward risk adjustments southward across parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles favoring the current instability gradient and expected storm development across this corridor into this evening. ..Guyer.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025/ ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. Read more