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WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SPD TO 25 SSE GCK TO 10 NE RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-067-081-097-119-129-145-151-175-185-187- 189-070540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD GRANT HASKELL KIOWA MEADE MORTON PAWNEE PRATT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 380 SEVERE TSTM KS 070025Z - 070700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 725 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into South-Central Kansas * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 725 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A mix of supercells and small clusters should spread southeastward this evening into the early overnight hours while posing some threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter and severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-75 mph, especially if an intense cluster can form later this evening. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of Garden City KS to 70 miles east of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 376...WW 378...WW 379... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-025-027-031-039-043-045-047-049-051- 055-059-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-119-123-125-129-133-139- 149-151-153-070540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CIMARRON CLEVELAND COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARPER KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE TEXAS WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC065-111-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-483-070540- TX Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-025-027-031-039-043-045-047-049-051- 055-059-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-119-123-125-129-133-139- 149-151-153-070540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CIMARRON CLEVELAND COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARPER KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE TEXAS WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC065-111-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-483-070540- TX Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-007-009-011-015-017-025-027-031-039-043-045-047-049-051- 055-059-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-119-123-125-129-133-139- 149-151-153-070540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CIMARRON CLEVELAND COMANCHE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARPER KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS SEMINOLE TEXAS WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC065-111-179-195-211-233-295-341-357-393-421-483-070540- TX Read more

MD 1165 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 379... FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0916 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into western OK Concerning...Tornado Watch 379... Valid 070216Z - 070345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated supercells with a threat of tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts remain possible this evening. Some severe threat will eventually spread into parts of western/central OK and downstream watch issuance is likely in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell is moving southeastward across the northern TX Panhandle as of 02 UTC, with another cluster of supercells ongoing across far southeast CO. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 2500 J/kg or greater) and deep-layer shear (effective shear of 60+ kt) will remain quite favorable for supercell maintenance through the evening. Increasing low-level flow (as noted on the KAMA VWP) and effective SRH of greater than 200 m2/s2 will support a tornado threat (including localized strong-tornado potential) with these cells as they track just north of a quasi-stationary surface boundary. Gradually deepening cumulus is also noted along the boundary southeast of the ongoing cell across the northeast TX Panhandle, and also into parts of western/central OK. Potential for additional supercell development is uncertain, but cannot be ruled out as a low-level warm-advection regime continues to gradually strengthen north of the boundary. Strong storms and related outflow are also moving into parts of southwest OK. Some severe threat could accompany these storms in the short term as they move northeastward. Eventually, more organized convection is expected to move into west-central/northwest OK from the TX Panhandle, if the environment is not adversely influenced by the ongoing southwest OK convection. Eventual downstream watch issuance is likely in the next 1-2 hours across parts of western/central OK. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36829951 36619832 36129778 35919778 34349826 34459961 34770020 35510123 36450254 36830282 36990219 36940105 36930019 36829951 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1164 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 379... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0857 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 379... Valid 070157Z - 070330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...Very large hail and significant severe gusts remain likely with the stronger storms, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A downstream WW issuance may be needed if it becomes evident that severe storms should persist for several more hours. DISCUSSION...Several supercells continue to track east ahead of a dryline, atop an unstable warm sector. Some of these supercells have a history of producing large hail over 3 inches in diameter, along with 80+ mph wind gusts. Given up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE preceding the storms, it is not out of the question for these storms to persist with significant severe wind/hail and sparse tornado potential for at least a couple more hours. 00Z RAP forecast soundings show convective inhibition setting in ahead of the ongoing storms, given 15C 700 mb temperatures overspreading a nocturnally cooling boundary layer. As such, long-term severe potential remains unclear. Nonetheless, if storms show signs of persisting into west-central TX, a downstream WW issuance may be needed. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32150368 33680253 34160169 34100049 33969943 33869892 33489890 32839915 32409954 32070027 31860091 31820175 31830306 32150368 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0381 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CAO TO 55 ENE LAA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-099-070340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CAO TO 55 ENE LAA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-099-070340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CAO TO 55 ENE LAA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-099-070340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CAO TO 55 ENE LAA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-099-070340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CAO TO 55 ENE LAA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-099-070340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0378 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CAO TO 55 ENE LAA. ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 378 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-071-099-070340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA LAS ANIMAS PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 378 TORNADO CO 061945Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East-Central and Southeast Colorado * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered are forecast to develop this afternoon near Interstate 25 and intensify as this activity moves east into the plains. A few supercells are likely with the more intense supercells potentially capable of very large hail up to 3.5 inches in diameter. The risk for a couple of tornadoes appears greatest during the late afternoon into the early evening when low-level shear will strengthen. The threat for severe gusts will probably become more prevalent this evening as storms increase in coverage. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Limon CO to 40 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 376...WW 377... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1162 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 379... FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS
Mesoscale Discussion 1162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Trans-Pecos Concerning...Tornado Watch 379... Valid 070011Z - 070145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...Very large hail and severe gusts will remain a concern for at least a few more hours. A tornado also cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have become established further south along the dryline, from extreme southeast NM into the TX Trans Pecos. MRMS mosaic radar MESH data suggests that well over 3 inch diameter hail may be occurring with some of these storms (particularly the supercell over Loving County, TX). Temperatures are over 90 F ahead of these storms, but with dewpoints only in the 55-60 F range. As such, these supercells should remain high-based given 30+ F T/Td spreads. The well-mixed boundary layer will support severe gusts with these storms, with the very-large hail risk continuing for the next few hours. Mediocre boundary layer moisture, and the lack of overall stronger low-level shear, should temper the overall tornado threat, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31030401 31970394 32740367 33010319 32970185 32710109 32360112 31830163 31230212 30860250 30760340 31030401 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 1163 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 379... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 379... Valid 070026Z - 070130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...A few tornadoes appear likely over the next couple of hours, and a strong tornado is possible. Otherwise, severe wind and very large hail will remain a concern. DISCUSSION...Right-moving, mature supercells have become established ahead of the dryline around the Lubbock, TX vicinity. The eastern storm has produced a well-defined outflow boundary, which the Hockley County storm has recently anchored to. Both of these storms are progressing across a highly buoyant airmass, where a low-level jet is also poised to intensify this evening, resulting in stronger low-level shear. Both of these storms are capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to 3+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph, especially in rear-flank downdrafts. The Hockley county storm appears to have the best chance at producing a strong tornado should it firmly anchor on the outflow boundary for extended periods of time. ..Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB... LAT...LON 33650263 33790220 33810123 33670036 33410020 33170043 33130121 33140182 33250249 33380261 33650263 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING ...SUMMARY... A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening. ...01Z Update... Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing as of 01Z. A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25 kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection, this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels. So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley overnight remains unclear. There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg. This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma. As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/07/2025 Read more