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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

MD 1166 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southwest into south-central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380... Valid 070408Z - 070545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe threat may spread east across southern KS overnight. DISCUSSION...To the north of ongoing supercells across the OK Panhandle, less intense convection is ongoing across southwest KS. Thus far, relatively cool near-surface conditions have likely tended to limit the severe threat across southwest KS. However, convection is likely to persist into the overnight, aided by a low-level warm-advection regime and a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the central High Plains. MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (greater with southward extent) and moderate effective shear may yet support development of a few stronger cells/clusters, with some potential for locally damaging wind and hail. An isolated severe threat may eventually spread east of WW 380; the need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain, but may be considered if there is a notable uptick in storm intensity and organization across southwest KS over the next 1-2 hours. ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37220119 38419948 38409849 38269769 38049739 37649730 37079744 37039797 37059924 37030119 37220119 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

638
ABPZ20 KNHC 070504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Southern Mexico (EP92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is expected to form this weekend as the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Locally heavy rains are
possible along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system. For additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico have changed little in organization for much of
the day. However, gradual development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop late next week south
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system as it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SPD TO 25 SSE GCK TO 10 NE RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-067-081-097-119-129-145-151-175-185-187- 189-070540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD GRANT HASKELL KIOWA MEADE MORTON PAWNEE PRATT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SPD TO 25 SSE GCK TO 10 NE RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-067-081-097-119-129-145-151-175-185-187- 189-070540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD GRANT HASKELL KIOWA MEADE MORTON PAWNEE PRATT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SPD TO 25 SSE GCK TO 10 NE RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-067-081-097-119-129-145-151-175-185-187- 189-070540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD GRANT HASKELL KIOWA MEADE MORTON PAWNEE PRATT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SPD TO 25 SSE GCK TO 10 NE RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-067-081-097-119-129-145-151-175-185-187- 189-070540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD GRANT HASKELL KIOWA MEADE MORTON PAWNEE PRATT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0380 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SPD TO 25 SSE GCK TO 10 NE RSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 ..DEAN..06/07/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 380 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-025-033-047-057-067-081-097-119-129-145-151-175-185-187- 189-070540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD GRANT HASKELL KIOWA MEADE MORTON PAWNEE PRATT SEWARD STAFFORD STANTON STEVENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more