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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OK/NORTHERN TX TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY FROM THE SOUTH/LOWER-MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely across Oklahoma and northern Texas to the Ark-La-Tex during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and very large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A vertically stacked cyclone will drift southeast in the southern MB/northwest ON to northern MN vicinity through early morning Monday. The attendant surface cold front should arc from northeast IL to the Raton Mesa by 21Z Sunday. Low-amplitude mid/upper troughing, with multiple embedded MCVs, will move east from the eastern Midwest and TN Valley into the Mid and South Atlantic States by Sunday evening. ...Southern Great Plains... The active severe-weather pattern across the region may peak during late afternoon to evening Sunday. With a brief respite on D1 in the wake of multiple prior-day MCSs, rather rich low-level moisture will become prevalent beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. MLCAPE will become large to extreme ahead of the cold front from southern KS across much of northern TX by Sunday afternoon. With weak forcing for large-scale ascent prior to the frontal intrusion from the north, there is a minority of guidance, such as the 00Z NSSL-ARW and NAM, which suggest early-day storms in the eastern Panhandles to along the Red River. Bulk of guidance continues to indicate more typical late-afternoon development along and just ahead of the cold front. With mid to upper wind profiles from the west-northwest, elongated hodographs coupled with the strong to extreme instability will favor discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Consolidating outflows, further southward push to the cold front and strengthening of a west TX low-level jet will yield increasingly widespread storms that should congeal into a forward-propagating, potentially intense MCS. This type of setup is conducive to embedded bowing structures capable of producing destructive severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes. The 18Z RRFS is consistent with this scenario indicating the development of an 80-90 kt RIJ. Severe wind and embedded hail potential should persist overnight, although likely shrinking in spatial extent, into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley. ...Ozarks to Mid-MS Valley... A confined corridor of appreciable buoyancy with a ribbon of richer boundary-layer moisture is anticipated along the cold front that will be oriented from northeast to southwest on Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form along the front by late afternoon and persist through mid-evening, before likely weakening east of the MS River owing to the confined MLCAPE plume. A strong mid-level jetlet is expected to be centered across IA to southern WI. More moderate deep-layer shear to the south-southeast will still be adequate for a few supercells initially that congeal into multicell clusters. Scattered large to isolated significant severe hail is possible, along with scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado. ...South to Lower Mid-Atlantic States... Robust boundary-layer heating is anticipated along the Atlantic Coastal Plain and adjacent Piedmont at least as far north as southern VA by Sunday afternoon. This should support moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Multiple embedded MCVs will support at least scattered afternoon storms developing near the higher terrain and spreading east towards the coast. Enhanced mid-level westerlies will support transient/weak updraft rotation and multicell clustering. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are likely. A tornado or two is also possible in the Lower Mid-Atlantic along the primary differential heating corridor, where low-level shear may be adequate ahead of a central Appalachians MCV. ..Grams.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND AN ADJACENT PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... One or more organized clusters of thunderstorms may evolve and overspread a corridor from the southeastern Great Plains through parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states today into tonight, potentially producing swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific will amplify inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast during this period. This is likely to include building mid-level ridging pivoting from a negative to positive tilt while shifting inland across the Canadian Rockies, ahead of inland progressing upstream troughing. Downstream, a notable mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Prairies toward the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity, accompanied by a developing cyclone and a couple of reinforcing cool surges, as far southeast as the Upper Midwest through central Great Plains by 12Z Sunday. As this occurs, models indicate that more modest mid-level troughing, now digging to the southeast of the Front Range, will accelerate eastward through the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to amplifying cyclonic flow as far south as the Gulf Coast states, where subtropical ridging will become suppressed. In lower-levels, a diffuse frontal zone extending from the southern Mid Atlantic into south central Great Plains will tend to shift southward as well, probably becoming reinforced or preceded by increasingly extensive convective outflow. ...Southeastern Great Plains into Southeast... Forcing for ascent downstream of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of the Front Range is contributing to increasing vigorous thunderstorm development along the frontal zone across the south central Great Plains. It appears that low-level updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates, will maintain activity eastward across northern/central Oklahoma through daybreak. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, beneath a prominent westerly mid/upper jet, further organization and consolidation appears probable, accompanied by increasing strong to severe surface gusts. It seems probable that this will continue beyond daybreak across central Arkansas, where/when daytime heating of a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of the convection may contribute to its maintenance and perhaps re-intensification. Based on latest model output, it remains unclear whether the coupling of forcing for ascent and destabilization will maintain activity as far east as areas near/south of the southern Appalachians, or whether initial activity will eventually weaken, with renewed development eventually occurring upstream along its trailing outflow, aided by low-level warm advection. Regardless, there appears potential for one or more organizing clusters to produce swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Southern Great Plains... Moderate to strong potential instability is likely to again develop with daytime heating along a remnant baroclinic zone to the lee of the southern Rockies into Red River vicinity, and an evolving dryline to its south, across west Texas. It is possible severe probabilities may need to be increased, once uncertainties due to mid-level inhibition and lack of more prominent forcing for ascent clear. ...Northern Great Plains... It still appears that destabilization ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front will remain rather modest, but forcing for ascent and shear ahead of the vigorous digging mid-level trough may contribute to a couple of strong storms potentially capable of producing marginally severe hail and wind. ..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/07/2025 Read more