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Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... North Texas Southern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Guyer.. 06/08/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... North Texas Southern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Guyer.. 06/08/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SUN JUN 08 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... North Texas Southern Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Guyer.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...17z Update... No changes, dry post-frontal conditions are likely across parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas this afternoon. Fuels farther south are not overly receptive, but surface wind gusts of 25-30 mph with RH near 20-25% will support several hours of elevated fire-weather potential. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the central and eastern CONUS as a mid-level ridge builds over the western U.S. today. Rich low-level moisture will overspread most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with scattered to widespread thunderstorms expected, mitigating significant wildfire-spread concerns over most locales. The one exception will be over parts of the northern High Plains. Widespread 15-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds are likely in a post-cold frontal regime, where RH may dip into the 15-25 percent range. Given modestly dry fine fuels present, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Elsewhere across the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin, a dry and mixed boundary layer should support widespread lower RH. However, the lack of a stronger surface wind field suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 06/08/2025 Read more