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MD 1147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061820Z - 061915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A semi-organized band of storms with some wind damage potential will spread eastward across eastern Kentucky through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...Earlier multicell storm clusters have grown into a somewhat organized band of storms across central KY, aided by 30 kt midlevel flow sampled by the LMK VWP. Given the downstream environment with moderately large buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and just enough westerly shear in the lowest 3-5 km AGL layer to help maintain updrafts on the leading edge of the developing cold pool, there is potential for some wind-damage threat to persist through the afternoon into eastern KY. For these reasons, a severe thunderstorm watch is being considered within the next 30 minutes or so. ..Thompson.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 37198268 36868337 36728402 36708459 36728511 36848530 37158515 37508495 38088482 38318465 38478423 38428362 38128313 37838268 37198268 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...far southern Illinois...western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061649Z - 061845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in the threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes is expected through mid afternoon. A watch may become necessary. DISCUSSION...A well-developed MCV from morning convection is moving generally eastward over southeast MO. New convection has been slowly consolidating in advance of the MCV, and additional storm development is likely into the strongly unstable warm sector across western KY/northwestern TN. On the mesoscale, there will be an increase in low-midlevel vertical shear and related hodograph size/curvature as enhanced flow with the MCV encounters the larger buoyancy to its east through the afternoon. Storm clusters with embedded supercells will be possible, with an increase in the potential for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes through mid-late afternoon. This area will be monitored closely and a watch could become necessary by early-mid afternoon (near or after 19z/2p CDT). ..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 37358756 36618732 35738758 35518852 35598911 35748962 36159011 36599032 37199017 37578967 37618893 37538808 37358756 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0377 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0377 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 377 SEVERE TSTM KY 061835Z - 062300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A linear cluster of storms will spread eastward into eastern Kentucky through the remainder of the afternoon, with an attendant threat for occasional wind damage and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Jackson KY to 30 miles south southwest of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 376... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0376 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0376 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0376 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 6 18:01:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/GA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening. Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large hail will be possible. ...Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys into GA... An MCS will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across portions of OK into Ozarks. The MCV associated with this feature will likely phase with a shortwave trough developing east from the central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through the afternoon. This shortwave will proceed eastward across the Midwest to the central Appalachians by the end of the period. A swath of enhanced mid/upper westerly flow associated with the MCV and shortwave trough will overspread Mid-South and OH/TN Valleys, with 35-50 kt of flow between 850-700 mb depicted by most forecast guidance. This enhanced flow aloft will overlap a corridor of strong instability (MLCAPE greater than 2500 J/kg from the Mid-South into the TN Valley). Uncertainty exists in stronger destabilization with northward extent into portions of MO/IL/KY and vicinity. The expectation is that a couple of corridors of primarily damaging wind potential will develop on Saturday. The more intense convection is expected to develop along the periphery of outflow from the morning MCS over Ozark Plateau, with convection developing and rapidly intensifying across northern MS eastward into portions of northern/central AL through the afternoon, and perhaps into portions of western/central GA by early evening. Forward-propagating clusters with potential for bowing segments will produce swaths of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated large hail also may occur with any more discrete cells, mainly early in convective evolution. Another corridor of severe potential is possible in association with the remnant MCV and the ejecting upper shortwave trough moving into the Mid-MS/OH Valley during the afternoon. It is uncertain how the airmass may recover in the wake of the morning MCS and instability could remain somewhat suppressed. Nevertheless, favorable shear for organized storms will be present as large-scale ascent increases. While storm coverage and evolution is uncertain, some potential for damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will exist during the afternoon into early evening. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... A weak upper shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will shift east across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity through early evening. This will bring a belt of enhanced west/southwesterly flow over the VA/NC Piedmont. Enhanced flow aloft will overlap with a seasonally moist/unstable airmass ahead of southeast-advancing cold front. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, and transient supercells are possible. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates. Small bows and strong downbursts could produce damaging gusts during the afternoon. ...Southern High Plains into OK/North TX... Diurnal convection may be less prevalent across the High Plains on Saturday compared to the previous few days in the wake of the morning OK MCS and the central Plains upper trough shifting eastward. However, isolated storms may still develop in modest upslope flow across eastern NM/far west TX. Isolated strong gusts and large hail could accompany these storms. Additional storms may develop along the residual outflow extending somewhere in the vicinity of west-central TX toward the Red River. A very moist and unstable airmass will reside in the area. However, vertical shear will remain modest and capping may suppress storms coverage. Nevertheless, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop. ...Eastern Dakotas into Northwest MN... A deepening upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will develop southeast into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will move across northern Manitoba through the afternoon and a south/southwest oriented trailing cold front will sweep across the Dakotas into MN. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, limiting quality destabilization. Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer flow coupled with strong forcing should support sporadic strong gusts with somewhat low-topped/high-based convection. ..Leitman.. 06/06/2025 Read more