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Pasture grass was growing slowly in Bon Homme County, as were crops. The wheat was all baled for livestock feed. A number of counties in southeast South Dakota, Bon Homme County included, had burn bans. KELOLAND Media Group (Sioux Falls, S.D.), June 23, 2023

Corn in Des Moines County was 10 to 20 inches shorter than it ought to be. Fond du Lac Reporter (Wis.), June 26, 2023

The U.S. Coast Guard was issuing safety advisories for barge traffic as streamflows were below normal throughout the upper Mississippi River basin in comparison to this time last year. All-time lows have been recorded at St. Cloud, Minnesota on the Mississippi River and in Valley City, Illinois on the Illinois River. Low water has affected the size and capacity of barge loads and increased costs. Fond du Lac Reporter (Wis.), June 26, 2023

WW 0423 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 423 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/30/23 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 423 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-005-013-027-055-059-065-069-077-081-083-087-119-121-127- 133-145-151-153-157-163-165-181-189-191-193-199-302340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE UNION WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC129-147-163-173-302340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK Read more

WW 423 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 302050Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky East-central to southeast Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple multicell clusters with transient supercell structures will likely develop into the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Vichy MO to 35 miles north northeast of Fort Campbell KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 422... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/30/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-039-041-055-061-063-071-073-089-099-101-121- 125-302340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-203-302340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM GREELEY LOGAN NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA Read more

WW 422 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM 301855Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Far southwest Nebraska Far northeast New Mexico * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few supercells should develop over east-central Colorado and off the Sangre de Cristo mountains before growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster towards northwest Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Goodland KS to 25 miles east southeast of Raton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0424 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0424 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 424 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 302215Z - 010400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along a boundary from eastern Kansas into western Missouri. High instability and sufficiently strong winds aloft will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Manhattan KS to 15 miles north of Columbia MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 422...WW 423... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

Drought has depleted groundwater for the city of Nixa. Water users were urged to curb their water use to avoid a Stage I Water Emergency through the end of July. If the city went into a water emergency, excess water would cost more, some water conservation measures would be mandatory, and some water use, such as lawn watering, would be prohibited. OzarksFirst (Springfield, Mo.), June 30, 2023

MD 1359 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas/Northern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302127Z - 302300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential should steadily increase through late afternoon across east-central/northeast Kansas into northern Missouri. A Watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows deepening/towering cu in vicinity of the roughly WSW/ENE-oriented boundary across central/northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. Hot temperatures and prevalent low/some middle 70s F surface dewpoints are contributing to minimal inhibition with MLCAPE estimated as high as 3000-4000 J/kg as per latest mesoanalysis and modifications to the 19z KTOP observed sounding. Moderately strong west-southwesterlies mid/high-level flow overlies the frontal zone, and as such, wind profiles will support some initial supercells capable of large hail. The potential for damaging winds are likely to increase this evening as cell mergers occur. ..Guyer/Hart.. 06/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39339772 39839565 39829287 39149195 38469227 38679417 38659593 38219715 38149802 39339772 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Jun 2023 20:47:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Jun 2023 21:22:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Jun 2023 20:47:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Jun 2023 21:29:02 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 095 WTPZ42 KNHC 302046 TCDEP2 Hurricane Beatriz Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Beatriz a couple of hours ago and measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 84 kt and SFMR surface winds around 70 kt, and based on that data, Beatriz's initial intensity is 75 kt. Since that time, the eye which had become apparent in satellite imagery has become obscured, and it's possible that the hurricane's structure is beginning to be affected by the nearby mountainous terrain of Mexico. Beatriz continues to move northwestward, or 305/11 kt, and that general motion should continue for the next 36 hours or so while the hurricane moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. On this trajectory, Beatriz will continue to graze the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next 24 hours, but any wobble to the right of the forecast track could bring the center inland during that time. If Beatriz survives the next 36 hours, another mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to build over the southwestern United States, causing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then westward and slow down on days 2 and 3. There is a fair amount of model spread during that period, and the updated NHC track forecast is closest to the GFS, TVCE, and HCCA aids, nudged a bit to the right of the previous forecast. Beatriz is expected to remain a hurricane during the next 24 hours if its center remains over water, but the mountainous terrain could cause some slow weakening regardless. After 36 hours, increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier, more subsident atmosphere are expected to contribute to faster weakening as Beatriz moves away from west-central Mexico. Most of the global models, with the exception of the GFS, dissipate the circulation by day 3, so the new NHC forecast now shows Beatriz degenerating into a remnant low by day 3, with dissipation occurring by day 4. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Beatriz is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next day or so, bringing a risk of hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through Saturday afternoon. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern and western Mexico from the state of Guerrero northwestward to the states of Sinaloa and Durango. These rains could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.8N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 20.1N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 21.1N 107.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 22.0N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 22.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 094 WTPZ41 KNHC 302046 TCDEP1 Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 300 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2023 The satellite structure of Adrian looked its best shortly after the time of the previous advisory. Since then, the eye has become obscured by clouds in visible satellite imagery. Although deep convection still surrounds the ragged eye, infrared cloud top temperatures have been gradually warming, and the central dense overcast has become more asymmetric over the past few hours. It appears that vertical wind shear is finally taking a toll on the hurricane, and the objective satellite estimates have leveled off or begun to decrease this afternoon. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt, in best agreement with a blend of recent UW-CIMSS SATCON, ADT, and AiDT estimates. Adrian is forecast to cross the 26 deg C SST isotherm tonight and move over 23 deg C SSTs within the next couple of days. In addition, the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate easterly shear that should continue to disrupt its vertical organization. Therefore, weakening is anticipated during the next several days. The global and regional models indicate that the cyclone will struggle to produce organized convection by Sunday. Therefore, the official NHC forecast shows remnant low status at 48 h and dissipation by day 4. The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 310/6 kt. A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days as Adrian is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States. As the cyclone weakens and spins down, it should turn westward within the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates. Based on the latest track guidance and consensus aids, the updated NHC forecast has once again been nudged to the right of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 17.7N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 18.2N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.7N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 19.1N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 19.5N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 03/0600Z 19.7N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z 19.7N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 302046 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BEATRIZ WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 28(28) 35(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 1 11(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P VALLARTA 34 1 32(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 88 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 17 20(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MANZANILLO 50 74 5(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MANZANILLO 64 31 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 302046 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beatriz Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BEATRIZ A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 103.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Zihuatanejo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beatriz was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 103.1 West. Beatriz is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move near or over portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Saturday. Beatriz is then expected to turn west-northwestward and move away from the west-central coast of Mexico Sunday and Monday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Beatriz is expected to remain a hurricane during the next day if its center remains just offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Weakening is expected Saturday through Monday once Beatriz begins to move away from west-central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beatriz can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep2.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Saturday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch areas Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: Through Monday, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches, is expected across portions of southern and western Mexico from Guerrero northwest to Sinaloa and Durango within, and around the periphery of, Hurricane Beatriz. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Beatriz are forecast to spread northward along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BEATRIZ A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH SATURDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 the center of Beatriz was located near 17.8, -103.1 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 302045 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.1W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.1W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 20.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.1N 107.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.0N 108.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.1N 109.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 103.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 302045 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC FRI JUN 30 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 62 32(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA CLARION 50 5 50(55) 3(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 64 1 22(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 3 35(38) 12(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 115W 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART