Aggregator

WW 435 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 022030Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and eastern Maryland New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few lower-topped supercells over south-central/east-central Pennsylvania should consolidate into a cluster across parts of the Delaware Valley. Additional cells forming into northern Virginia may evolve into a cluster across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity with damaging wind as the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles southeast of Patuxent River MD to 25 miles east northeast of Allentown PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...WW 432...WW 433...WW 434... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC021-037-059-022240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDING QUAY UNION OKC025-139-022240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CIMARRON TEXAS TXC011-065-111-117-195-205-233-341-359-375-381-421-022240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CARSON DALLAM DEAF SMITH HANSFORD HARTLEY HUTCHINSON MOORE OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN Read more

WW 434 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 022005Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest New Mexico Western and central Oklahoma Panhandle Western and central Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Loosely organized cluster should spread south-southeast from the Raton Mesa with a primary threat of sporadic severe wind gusts through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Clayton NM to 45 miles southwest of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431...WW 432...WW 433... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 34020. ...Grams Read more

WW 0432 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 432 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...ILX...IWX...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 432 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-021-023-027-029-031-035-041-047- 049-053-055-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-085-093-095- 097-101-103-105-107-109-115-119-133-135-137-139-145-155-159-161- 169-177-179-183-022240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KOSCIUSKO LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MIAMI MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OHIO OWEN PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SWITZERLAND TIPTON UNION WABASH WAYNE WELLS WHITLEY Read more

WW 432 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY OH 021805Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Indiana Northern Kentucky Western to southern Ohio * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters will largely spread northeast from southern parts of Illinois/Indiana and central Kentucky through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Lafayette IN to 30 miles south of Columbus OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430...WW 431... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...FFC...JAN...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-015-019-029-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-073-075-077-079- 083-089-093-095-103-107-115-117-121-125-127-133-022240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLEBURNE COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON ARC035-037-077-107-123-022240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS Read more

WW 430 SEVERE TSTM AL AR GA MS NC TN 021715Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Eastern Arkansas Northwest Georgia Northern Mississippi Far southwest North Carolina Southern to eastern Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several multicell clusters should develop through the afternoon and gradually spread east. Large hail will be possible, mainly early, but damaging winds will be the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Oxford MS to 20 miles southeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N ARG TO 15 SSE POF TO 25 SSE FAM. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-055-093-111-022240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-022240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-117-123-125-129-143-147-163-173- Read more

WW 431 SEVERE TSTM AR IL IN KY MO TN 021735Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western to central Kentucky Southeast Missouri Western to northern Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several multicell clusters with a few supercells are expected this afternoon. These may congeal into a broader MCS with embedded linear bowing structures, centered on central Kentucky later today. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Poplar Bluff MO to 65 miles east southeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 430... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Grams Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Jul 2023 20:32:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Jul 2023 21:22:47 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022031 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023 This has been no deep convection associated with Adrian for over 12 hours, and it is doubtful that any organized convection will return. Therefore, Adrian is now a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt, based on satellite-estimated surface winds. The remnant low should continue to gradually spin down over the cooler sea surface temperatures and open into a trough of low pressure during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the intensity model consensus. Adrian is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. The remnant low should make a gradual turn to the west over the next couple of days in the low-level flow and model guidance suggests it will likely open into a trough of low pressure beyond day 2. This is the final NHC advisory of Adrian. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.9N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 03/0600Z 20.2N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1800Z 20.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 20.3N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 20.2N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 02 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 022030 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 1 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 022030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 02 2023 ...ADRIAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 117.5W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 117.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west over the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated and the remnant low will likely dissipate in the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Bucci

...ADRIAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 2 the center of Adrian was located near 19.9, -117.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 02 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 022030 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 02 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.3N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 117.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW RDU TO 25 SSE DAN TO 30 N RDU TO 10 W AVC TO 40 N AVC. ..THORNTON..07/02/23 ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC063-065-069-077-083-101-127-131-135-181-183-185-195-022140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HALIFAX JOHNSTON NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE VANCE WAKE WARREN WILSON VAC025-081-595-022140- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK GREENSVILLE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE EMPORIA Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Potential for an organizing cluster of storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts appears highest across the lower Ohio Valley through mid to late evening. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the categorical and probabilistic lines to account for the progression of the synoptic and sub-synoptic features and their associated influence on destabilization. Convection continues to increase along a weak frontal zone to the south and southeast of a still well-defined mid-level low migrating across east central Illinois into west central Indiana. Although models continue to indicate that the low will become increasingly sheared and weaken later this evening, a seasonably moist boundary layer across the lower Ohio Valley has become characterized by large CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. Modestly steep low-level lapse rates, coupled with shear/momentum associated with a belt of 40 kt 500 mb flow centered roughly across Kentucky, seems likely to support the evolution of an organizing convective system with increasing risk of producing damaging wind gusts into this evening. As activity continues eastward later this evening and overnight, a less unstable and/or stabilizing boundary layer across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus, into and across the Appalachians, is expected to weaken convection and result in diminishing severe weather potential. ..Kerr.. 07/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023/ ...Deep South to the OH Valley... A shortwave trough over IL will lose amplitude as it moves east across IN/OH through tonight. To the south of this trough, a belt of 35-45 kt mid-level west-southwesterlies will persist from the Mid-South to the central Appalachians. Numerous clusters are expected to develop by late afternoon within a broad southwesterly low-level flow regime amid moderate to large buoyancy characterized by an expansive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3500 J/kg. Activity along the fringe of the stronger mid-level flow over the Deep South to TN Valley and with north extent in IN/OH will generally consist of multicell clusters. More organized clustering with a few supercells should emanate from the MS/OH River confluence and expand/spread across KY/TN and along the OH Valley later this afternoon. These may evolve into faster-moving line segments and embedded bowing structures with the main threat being damaging winds. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic States... A pair of MCVs, one in the vicinity of southwest VA and the other over western PA may help focus downstream scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. With weak mid-level lapse rates persisting north of the lee of the southern Appalachians per 12Z observed soundings, robust boundary-layer heating will be necessary to destabilize across the region. This appears to be underway from NJ south across most of VA into NC. With relatively stronger mid-level westerlies compared to previous days, there will be sufficient deep-layer shear for organized multicell clustering and perhaps transient supercell structures. Overall setup should support a primary threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds into early evening. ...Southern High Plains... Downstream of a subtle mid/upper trough moving southeast over the southern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms will tend to be focused over the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Cristos later this afternoon. Within this northwest flow regime, deep-layer shear will be weak outside of the Raton Mesa to western Panhandles vicinity. A well-mixed boundary layer will support a primary threat of dry microbursts from slow-moving high-based storms. Somewhat greater potential for a briefly organized cluster remains apparent across northeast NM into the western Panhandles during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Northeast ND and northwest MN... The downstream influence of a pronounced shortwave trough shifting east across the Canadian Prairies will aid in a surface cyclone tracking from southeast SK across southern MB through this evening. Attendant surface cold front will likely increasingly overtake a leading surface trough this evening in northeast ND. While the greater severe threat will probably remain north of the international border, trailing convective development may brush far northeast ND/northwest MN with a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds for a few hours centered around 03Z. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. However, Elevated highlights have been added over (and to the lee of) the Cascades, as well as central Arizona, as the latest guidance consensus has trended windier across these regions, necessitating fire weather highlights. Localized wildfire spread concerns may also develop over lower terrain/non-irrigated areas of central and southern California (i.e. southern parts of the San Joaquin Valley and points south) given expected dry onshore flow in these areas. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel west-southwesterly flow trailing a low-pressure system moving across central Canada will strengthen across parts of the Great Basin into the northwestern CONUS. Given a warm/dry antecedent air mass over these areas, locally elevated conditions will be possible where fuels are dry. This will especially be the case over parts of AZ into the southern Great basin, and in the lee of the Cascades. Currently, the best overlap of strong surface winds and low RH is expected over the central Great Basin, where fuels are only modestly receptive to wildfire spread -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Additionally, diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Rockies during the afternoon, where deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles are expected. While this will favor dry thunderstorms, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 2 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Adrian, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles off
the coast of southern Mexico during the middle to latter part of
this week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system and a tropical
depression could form while it moves generally west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...INCLUDING THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and thunderstorm clusters may develop across the Mid Atlantic Region and portions of the northern Great Plains Monday into Monday night. ...Synopsis... A branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific through the northwestern Atlantic will remain amplified through this period. However, within this regime, an occluding cyclone over the Canadian Prairies is forecast to weaken, while a more modest secondary low migrates from northeastern Manitoba into central Hudson Bay. The initially deep associated mid-level low appears likely to become increasingly sheared across the eastern Canadian Prairies through western Hudson Bay, as downstream ridging builds across northern Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador. To the south of this ridge, shearing mid-level troughing in a separate branch of westerlies will continue to shift east-northeastward, across northern and middle Atlantic coastal areas. It appears that weak troughing within this southern branch will also linger as far southwest as the southern Great Plains, while mid-level ridging builds to the north, across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent Great Lakes region. ...Northern Rockies into Upper Midwest... The frontal zone associated with the Canadian Prairies cyclone will likely provide one focus for considerable thunderstorm development Monday through Monday night. Models suggest that this front will reach northwestern Minnesota through the North and South Dakota state border and Big Horns vicinity by 12Z Monday, before southeastward motion slows or stalls. As a notable short wave impulse digs southeast of British Columbia, around the southwestern periphery of the more prominent shearing mid-level low, the front may make more substantive southward progress through southern Idaho and northern/central Wyoming by 12Z Tuesday. Forcing for ascent downstream of the digging impulse may contribute to thunderstorm initiation across and east of the mountains of northwestern Wyoming by Monday afternoon, as a more subtle preceding perturbation and downstream warm advection perhaps contribute to additional storm development across southeastern Montana into southwestern North Dakota and adjacent northwestern South Dakota. Stronger destabilization and vertical shear will become focused within/above the moist easterly post-frontal near-surface flow, from the lee of the Big Horns through northern South Dakota by peak afternoon heating. It appears that this environment will become conducive to the highest probabilities for severe convective development, which may include supercells and one or two upscale growing and organizing clusters into Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Southeast of the shearing mid-level troughing, a remnant belt of 20-40+ kt southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer is forecast to gradually continuing shifting from the Cumberland and southern Allegheny Plateau vicinity through northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas. It appears that the southeastern periphery of this belt will overspread seasonably moist air within surface troughing to lee of the Blue Ridge, which is forecast to become characterized by large CAPE (2000-3000+ J/kg) by peak afternoon heating. This will support potential for scattered strong thunderstorm development accompanied by a risk for severe wind hail into Monday evening. ..Kerr.. 07/02/2023 Read more