Aggregator

...HURRICANE CALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Jul 13 the center of Calvin was located near 12.8, -118.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132030 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 118.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 118.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 120.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 123.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 135.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 141.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 149.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BERG

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far northeastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough. Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740 46149888 46749924 47229932 Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far northeastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough. Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740 46149888 46749924 47229932 Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far northeastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough. Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740 46149888 46749924 47229932 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across eastern New York and western Vermont, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and portions of the southern/central Plains. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible in these areas. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...Northeast... A line of storms continues to push rapidly east across NY, with strong wind gusts measured recently. Instability remains favorable ahead of the line, and heating continues as well. While the primary threat is for damaging winds, effective SRH over 150 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear over 30 kt will also favor a few supercells with hail or brief/weak tornado risk. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1523. Farther south, a relative minimum in thunderstorm coverage is expected over southern PA into MD, and the Slight Risk has been modified in these areas as the severe risk should remain isolated. The primary risk farther south is expected to remain over the OH Valley, WV and western VA. ...Plains... Extreme moisture and instability is noted into eastern CO where dewpoints are in the 68-72 F range. The backed/easterly low-level flow beneath moderate high level flow is resulting in long hodographs with around 50 kt effective shear. The result should be very large hail, as well as developing damaging wind threat as storms increase in coverage and blend outflows through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western OK. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1519. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...NY into New England... Water vapor loop shows a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario, with a surface cold extending extending from Lake Erie into central/eastern OH. A warm front extends east from a surface low over southeast Ontario Province to the coast near Portland, ME. The cold front will move steadily east this afternoon into NY where thunderstorm development is underway, with an increase in coverage likely over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and substantial heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms should weaken during the evening while moving into a more stable environment with time. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1517 for additional details on short-term thinking in this area. ...KY/WV/OH... As the cold front sags southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE of 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg will promote supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds and severe hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper-level ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, however minimal CINH and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline, spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE, and also over southwest KS and adjacent TX/OK panhandles may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across eastern New York and western Vermont, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and portions of the southern/central Plains. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible in these areas. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...Northeast... A line of storms continues to push rapidly east across NY, with strong wind gusts measured recently. Instability remains favorable ahead of the line, and heating continues as well. While the primary threat is for damaging winds, effective SRH over 150 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear over 30 kt will also favor a few supercells with hail or brief/weak tornado risk. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1523. Farther south, a relative minimum in thunderstorm coverage is expected over southern PA into MD, and the Slight Risk has been modified in these areas as the severe risk should remain isolated. The primary risk farther south is expected to remain over the OH Valley, WV and western VA. ...Plains... Extreme moisture and instability is noted into eastern CO where dewpoints are in the 68-72 F range. The backed/easterly low-level flow beneath moderate high level flow is resulting in long hodographs with around 50 kt effective shear. The result should be very large hail, as well as developing damaging wind threat as storms increase in coverage and blend outflows through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western OK. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1519. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...NY into New England... Water vapor loop shows a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario, with a surface cold extending extending from Lake Erie into central/eastern OH. A warm front extends east from a surface low over southeast Ontario Province to the coast near Portland, ME. The cold front will move steadily east this afternoon into NY where thunderstorm development is underway, with an increase in coverage likely over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and substantial heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms should weaken during the evening while moving into a more stable environment with time. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1517 for additional details on short-term thinking in this area. ...KY/WV/OH... As the cold front sags southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE of 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg will promote supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds and severe hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper-level ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, however minimal CINH and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline, spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE, and also over southwest KS and adjacent TX/OK panhandles may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across eastern New York and western Vermont, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and portions of the southern/central Plains. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible in these areas. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...Northeast... A line of storms continues to push rapidly east across NY, with strong wind gusts measured recently. Instability remains favorable ahead of the line, and heating continues as well. While the primary threat is for damaging winds, effective SRH over 150 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear over 30 kt will also favor a few supercells with hail or brief/weak tornado risk. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1523. Farther south, a relative minimum in thunderstorm coverage is expected over southern PA into MD, and the Slight Risk has been modified in these areas as the severe risk should remain isolated. The primary risk farther south is expected to remain over the OH Valley, WV and western VA. ...Plains... Extreme moisture and instability is noted into eastern CO where dewpoints are in the 68-72 F range. The backed/easterly low-level flow beneath moderate high level flow is resulting in long hodographs with around 50 kt effective shear. The result should be very large hail, as well as developing damaging wind threat as storms increase in coverage and blend outflows through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western OK. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1519. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...NY into New England... Water vapor loop shows a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario, with a surface cold extending extending from Lake Erie into central/eastern OH. A warm front extends east from a surface low over southeast Ontario Province to the coast near Portland, ME. The cold front will move steadily east this afternoon into NY where thunderstorm development is underway, with an increase in coverage likely over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and substantial heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms should weaken during the evening while moving into a more stable environment with time. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1517 for additional details on short-term thinking in this area. ...KY/WV/OH... As the cold front sags southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE of 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg will promote supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds and severe hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper-level ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, however minimal CINH and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline, spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE, and also over southwest KS and adjacent TX/OK panhandles may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The Southwest mid-level high will shift westward on Friday with very warm temperatures expected across much of the region and generally light winds. This will keep fire weather concerns low, though a few locally enhanced breezes may bring briefly Elevated concerns. Given the localized nature of this threat, no areas were included. The extremely warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies will work to further dry already critically dry fuels across much of the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The Southwest mid-level high will shift westward on Friday with very warm temperatures expected across much of the region and generally light winds. This will keep fire weather concerns low, though a few locally enhanced breezes may bring briefly Elevated concerns. Given the localized nature of this threat, no areas were included. The extremely warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies will work to further dry already critically dry fuels across much of the Southwest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Scottsdale City Council unanimously agreed to ban natural grass in front of future single-family homes as the water shortage in the region made it essential to conserve water. The new ordinance takes effect for new houses constructed or permitted after August 15. In June, limits were placed on construction in the Phoenix area, due to groundwater depletion. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), July 13, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing damaging wind and sporadic hail are forecast over much of the central Plains on Friday. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, and into parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A large upper low will remain over Canada, with an upper ridge over the Southwest. In between, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the Plains. To the east, various weaker embedded waves will affect parts of the OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Great Lakes. Moisture will remain plentiful east of the Rockies, with the only exception the northern Plains and upper MS Valley where drier air will spread in from the northwest. ...Much of the central Plains... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over NE Friday morning near a stationary front and where low-level theta-e will be substantial. Some of these storms could have hail relatively early in the day, with an increasing threat throughout the day as the storms and the boundary push south into KS where heating will occur. Large hail is most likely with the initial activity, with a strong model signal of an MCS eventually pushing south/southeast into OK and southwest MO late. Damaging winds, as well as heavy rain, will become the primary concern. ..NC into southern New England... A deep-layer moist plume will remain in place with 850 mb winds out of the south/southwest, and a weak surface trough from the Carolinas into southern New England. Little heating will be needed to uncap the air mass, with storms focused over NC and VA during the day where lapse rates will be steepest. Another area of focus will be over southern New England where southerly winds will bring 70s F dewpoints northward across MA. Shear will not be very strong but veering winds with height may favor a few cells producing marginal hail. ...Upper Great Lakes/MI area... Moistening will occur over Lower MI during the day as with a west/southwest low-level wind regime, beneath cool midlevel temperatures and 500 mb winds over 40 kt. Strong heating will occur, which when combined with the rising dewpoints out of the southwest will yield plentiful instability. Scattered storms are expected to form over interior Lower MI during the late afternoon by virtue of weak convergence and an uncapped air mass, and lengthy straight hodographs will favor cellular storm mode with hail possible. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing damaging wind and sporadic hail are forecast over much of the central Plains on Friday. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, and into parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A large upper low will remain over Canada, with an upper ridge over the Southwest. In between, moderate northwest flow aloft will persist over the Plains. To the east, various weaker embedded waves will affect parts of the OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Great Lakes. Moisture will remain plentiful east of the Rockies, with the only exception the northern Plains and upper MS Valley where drier air will spread in from the northwest. ...Much of the central Plains... Storms are forecast to be ongoing over NE Friday morning near a stationary front and where low-level theta-e will be substantial. Some of these storms could have hail relatively early in the day, with an increasing threat throughout the day as the storms and the boundary push south into KS where heating will occur. Large hail is most likely with the initial activity, with a strong model signal of an MCS eventually pushing south/southeast into OK and southwest MO late. Damaging winds, as well as heavy rain, will become the primary concern. ..NC into southern New England... A deep-layer moist plume will remain in place with 850 mb winds out of the south/southwest, and a weak surface trough from the Carolinas into southern New England. Little heating will be needed to uncap the air mass, with storms focused over NC and VA during the day where lapse rates will be steepest. Another area of focus will be over southern New England where southerly winds will bring 70s F dewpoints northward across MA. Shear will not be very strong but veering winds with height may favor a few cells producing marginal hail. ...Upper Great Lakes/MI area... Moistening will occur over Lower MI during the day as with a west/southwest low-level wind regime, beneath cool midlevel temperatures and 500 mb winds over 40 kt. Strong heating will occur, which when combined with the rising dewpoints out of the southwest will yield plentiful instability. Scattered storms are expected to form over interior Lower MI during the late afternoon by virtue of weak convergence and an uncapped air mass, and lengthy straight hodographs will favor cellular storm mode with hail possible. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Calvin, located about 850 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the central potion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Campfires were not permitted in the Mt. Hood National Forest and Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area, starting Monday, July 10, due to dry and hot conditions. Gorge News Center (Chenoweth, Ore.), July 6, 2023

MD 1507 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN MO INTO A SMALL PART OF WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 Areas affected...Parts of northern/eastern MO into a small part of western IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122159Z - 122330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may intensify into early evening as they move southeastward, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed in northern MO. Based on satellite and mesoanalysis data, this activity is clearly elevated, and likely will remain so in the short term, given substantial MLCINH across the region. However, even for elevated convection that is likely based around 800 mb, MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear (supported by rather strong midlevel west-northwesterlies) conditionally favor the potential for a few organized storms. If any stronger cells/clusters can mature and be sustained into the early evening, some severe threat may evolve with this activity. Steep midlevel lapse rates will favor some hail potential, while a relatively warm and well-mixed boundary layer could support isolated damaging gusts, despite the relatively strong MLCINH. Uncertainty remains rather high regarding the evolution of this convection into the early evening, given its elevated nature and relative lack of stronger large-scale ascent across the area. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but will become possible if organized storms develop or appear imminent. ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... LAT...LON 38009052 39109345 39569350 39899337 39789219 39569145 39249070 39049034 38648961 38388969 38109003 38009052 Read more

WW 0477 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0477 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 477 TORNADO IL IN LM 122050Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Extreme northwest Indiana Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercell severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeast with a risk for a few tornadoes, large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. The potential also exists for a strong tornado or two to occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles southwest of Rockford IL to 10 miles north northeast of Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Bunting Read more