Aggregator

611
ABPZ20 KNHC 151722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Calvin, located more than 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next several days. Some gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves
generally west-northwestward over the central portion of the eastern
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Hawaii firefighting agencies and county fire departments encouraged the public to be careful to avoid sparking wildfires as severe drought took hold in Maui. Hawaii Public Radio (Honolulu), July 14, 2023

MD 1553 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491...493... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1553 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Portions of central Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...493... Valid 142200Z - 142330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491, 493 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts will likely extend into central/east-central Missouri. There is some uncertainty how far east the organized bowing segment will progress. DISCUSSION...Long radar/satellite loops indicate outflow from prior convection has reached near the I-70 corridor in Missouri. A cluster of convection has developed north-northwest of St. Louis in a weakly sheared environment. Outflow has quickly spread away from this cluster. The well-organized bowing structure (with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage) now in the eastern Kansas City suburbs should continue to the east likely just south of the primary outflow boundary where the airmass has at least slowly tried to recover this afternoon. The overall eastern extent of the severe threat with the bowing segment is somewhat in doubt given the outflow from the weak convection that may spread southward ahead of it. Shear should at least modestly increase with time given the approach of an upstream shortwave trough. The thermodynamic environment and storm-scale organization trends will likely be the modulators of the severe threat duration. ..Wendt.. 07/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38409427 38549452 38749447 39069428 39269406 39219372 39189320 39059239 38889137 38529092 38279104 38159163 38179290 38259388 38409427 Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0493 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 493 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 142155Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Central and Southern Missouri Northern and Central Oklahoma * Effective this Friday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 85 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple intense clusters of storms will continue to move southeastward into and across northern Oklahoma and central/southern Missouri, and eventually northwest Arkansas this evening. Corridors of wind damage and potentially significant-strength wind gusts can be expected, especially across northern Oklahoma and perhaps southwest Missouri. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west southwest of Alva OK to 50 miles east southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490...WW 491...WW 492... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/14/23 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...ILX...MKX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-017-037-057-067-071-073-085-095-099-103-107-109- 111-123-125-129-131-137-141-143-155-161-167-169-171-175-177-179- 187-195-201-203-142240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL CASS DE KALB FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX LA SALLE LEE LOGAN MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MENARD MERCER MORGAN OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGO WOODFORD IAC031-045-057-061-087-097-103-105-111-113-115-139-163-183- 142240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 492 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO WI 142050Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Western and northern Illinois Extreme northeast Missouri Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to develop and move east across the watch area through early this evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary severe weather risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east of Quincy IL to 40 miles northwest of Janesville WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 490...WW 491... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Bunting Read more

MD 1552 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1552 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Parts of the central/southern High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142100Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk will increase across the central and southern High Plains during the next few hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a surface boundary/wind shift extending east-northeastward from northeastern NM into southwestern KS, where it intersects a southward-moving outflow boundary associated with an MCS farther east. In the near-term, an isolated thunderstorm is attempting to deepen along the wind shift in northeastern NM, where a long/straight hodograph and steep deep-layer lapse rates will support supercells capable of large hail and severe gusts. Farther east, boundary-layer cumulus is deepening across parts of southwestern KS into the OK Panhandle ahead of the southward-advancing outflow, and additional thunderstorm development is possible here during the next few hours. Similar to northeastern NM, a moderately unstable air mass and around 40-50 kt of effective shear will support organized storms including supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Convective evolution is somewhat unclear across this area, though current thinking is that a watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 35770211 35940291 36220366 36570386 36980378 37260337 37760251 38070170 38070127 37950084 36959963 36639939 36159939 35819970 35710044 35770211 Read more

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW FLV TO 15 E STJ TO 20 ENE CDJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 ..GLEASON..07/14/23 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-021-037-091-103-107-121-209-142140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC011-013-015-021-025-033-037-039-047-049-057-077-083-085-095- 097-101-107-109-117-159-165-167-177-185-195-217-142140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CEDAR CLAY CLINTON DADE GREENE HENRY HICKORY JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON PETTIS Read more

WW 491 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 141835Z - 150000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms will move east across the watch area this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, possibly up to 85 mph, will be the primary severe weather risk. Large hail will also be possible, in addition to a tornado or two with embedded circulations along the leading edge of storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west of Chillicothe MO to 25 miles east southeast of Joplin MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 489...WW 490... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Bunting Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Jul 2023 20:52:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Jul 2023 21:28:39 GMT

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE LBL TO 45 NW P28 TO 15 WNW HUT TO 25 ENE HUT TO 30 SSW MHK TO 15 WSW OJC. ..GLEASON..07/14/23 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-007-015-017-019-025-031-033-035-049-059-073-077-079- 095-097-099-111-115-119-125-127-133-139-151-155-173-185-191-205- 207-142140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARBER BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLARK COFFEY COMANCHE COWLEY ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA LABETTE LYON MARION MEADE MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEOSHO OSAGE PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 490 SEVERE TSTM KS 141655Z - 150000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and eastern Kansas * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1155 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A complex of severe storms will move rapidly southeast across the watch area this afternoon, with intense damaging wind gusts up to 85 mph expected. Large hail will also be possible with isolated supercell storms that develop in advance of the complex of storms. The risk for a tornado or two will exist, especially along the leading edge of storms with embedded bowing segments. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles north of Dodge City KS to 50 miles east of Emporia KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 489... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Bunting Read more

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 14 2023 004 WTPZ43 KNHC 142048 TCDEP3 Hurricane Calvin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 14 2023 The satellite appearance of Calvin remains impressive this afternoon. Its well-defined eye is surrounded by a ring of deep, cold convective cloud tops, and visible satellite imagery shows healthy upper-level anticyclonic outflow in all quadrants of the hurricane. While some drier mid-level air appears to be wrapping around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, Calvin's inner core still appears intact at this time. The various objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 106-115 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 110 kt for this advisory. Some of the initial wind radii values were adjusted based on a recently processed 1402 UTC RCM-3 synthetic aperture radar overpass over Calvin. Although some small intensity fluctuations cannot be ruled out in the near term, Calvin is likely near its peak intensity. The hurricane is expected to move over cooler waters tomorrow and into a drier, more stable environment through early next week. Calvin should also encounter some increased southwesterly vertical wind shear later in the forecast period. Therefore, weakening is forecast to begin tomorrow and continue into next week. The convective structure of Calvin later in the forecast period is a source of uncertainty, with the hurricane models (HAFS-A/B) showing more of a TC-like structure while the global models (GFS and ECMWF) show it almost devoid of convection. For now, the forecast does not show Calvin becoming post-tropical until day 5. The latest intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope through 48 h, then closely follows the multi-model consensus aids thereafter. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 285/14 kt. This general motion will continue for the next several days as Calvin is steered by a mid-level ridge that extends westward across the eastern subtropical Pacific. Once again, the track models are in good agreement on this scenario. The updated NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, but just a bit slower at days 3-5 based on the latest model consensus trends. Calvin is expected to cross 140W and move into the central Pacific basin by early Monday morning, then approach the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Calvin is forecast to move across the central Pacific Ocean and approach the Hawaiian Islands early next week. It is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts given uncertainties in the track, intensity, and structure of Calvin as it approaches the islands. Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 13.8N 124.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.1N 129.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 132.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 16.9N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 17.4N 141.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 19.0N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 998 FOPZ13 KNHC 142047 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 125W 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 34 2 91(93) 5(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 130W 50 X 60(60) 24(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 130W 64 X 30(30) 32(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 14(14) 47(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 14 2023 022 WTPZ33 KNHC 142047 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Calvin Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 14 2023 ...CALVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 124.6W ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Calvin. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Calvin was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 124.6 West. Calvin is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Calvin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast to commence tomorrow and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Calvin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Calvin are expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CALVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Jul 14 the center of Calvin was located near 13.8, -124.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142045 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 124.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 124.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 132.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 138.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 156.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

MD 1550 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWESTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142010Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts are possible across parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI into early evening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A few loosely organized thunderstorms are tracking eastward across parts of southwestern/south-central MN this afternoon -- generally focused along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface trough. Ahead of this activity, differential heating along the northern edge of widespread cloud coverage should provide a favorable corridor across parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI for the maintenance of this activity into the early evening time frame. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the area and an elongated/straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective shear) could support marginal supercell structures and loosely organized clusters capable of producing marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds. Overall, the severe threat is expected to remain too marginal/isolated for a watch. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 44169582 44299604 44549613 44929620 45289606 45479573 45599498 45689410 45839342 46059294 46399241 46389176 46209112 45809081 45279079 44839101 44579145 44409189 44259255 44209399 44159535 44169582 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds, including some over 75 mph and large hail are forecast today over portions of the central and southern Plains. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, the Great Lakes, and the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...KS/MO/OK... A substantial MCS is currently moving southeastward across central KS with additional activity extending east along I-70 into northeast KS. The air mass ahead of these storms remains strongly unstable with a warming air mass and 70s F dewpoints. Earlier, GBD measured a wind gust of 52 kt near the tail end of the MCS, with 63 kt measured at TOP and various KS mesonet locations over 60 mph. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1547. ...MN into WI... Heating near a surface trough with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability may favor isolated hail or gusty winds, and a Marginal Risk has been added to this region, generally north of the existing cirrus canopy where heating is strongest. ..Jewell.. 07/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023/ ...Central and southern Plains... An ongoing cluster of severe storms was located over southwest/south-central NE at 16z, with a history of large hail and, more recently, severe gusts. This small complex is within a zone of warm advection in the 850 to 700-mb layer, and will likely continue moving southeastward along an instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Aided by steep lapse rates in the midlevels and strong-locally extreme MLCAPE across central KS/central and eastern OK this afternoon, an expected evolution into a fast-moving MCS with significant severe wind gust potential is anticipated. The Enhanced Risk was expanded west over KS based on morning CAM guidance, and also adjusted slightly southward over OK. The Slight and Marginal Risk areas were also expanded south as well-organized and fast-moving MCSs often persist longer than reflected in some operational guidance. Given the CAPE-shear parameter space, supercell potential will also exist with this MCS and an attendant risk for large hail. Farther west, isolated supercell development appears possible across southeast WY/northeast CO late today, along the southern fringe of stronger WNW mid-level flow. Large hail will be possible. ...MO/IA/IL/WI... A cold front will move into parts of southern IA, northern MO, northwest IL, and southern WI by afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of the front. Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds and ample CAPE will promote a few organized clusters capable of hail and damaging wind gusts for a few hours through this evening. ...East Coast from NC to New England... Diurnal heating of a moist air mass (dew points averaging upper 60s-mid 70s) will lead to moderate CAPE across a rather large area this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, contributing to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms from NC across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Winds aloft will be relatively weak (25-30 knots), but the potential will exist for a few slow-moving multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. Read more