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WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BOS TO 20 N BOS TO 35 NNW PWM. WW 497 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 161900Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 ..GLEASON..07/16/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-161900- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK MAC009-161900- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESSEX NHC015-017-161900- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging hail and wind gusts are most likely from the Black Hills area southeastward into northern Nebraska late Monday. Other strong wind gusts or marginal hail will be possible from parts of Kentucky and Tennessee northeastward into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain situated from Ontario into the Great Lakes, providing cool air aloft and a cyclonic flow regime from Mid and Upper MS Valley into the Northeast. To the west, a shortwave trough will affect parts of the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with strong westerly flow aloft. East of there, a northwest flow regime will exist over the northern and central Plains, with embedded waves developing from eastern WY/MT into SD/NE in association with areas of storms late. At the surface, dry air will exist behind a cold front which will extend from northern KS/MO into northern IL/IN, with a plume of mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of it. Westerly flow around 850 mb will maintain an unstable air mass from KY/TN into OH and western PA, beneath moderate mid to upper level flow. ...Northern Plains... Ahead of the upper wave and near a deepening surface trough, storms are likely to develop over southeast MT and northern WY during the afternoon, moving southeast across SD through late evening and continuing into east-central/northeast NE overnight. Initial activity is likely to produce large hail with long hodographs and steep lapse rates aloft, although some of the activity may be elevated. Even so, substantial, penetrating downdrafts may yield wind damage as well, especially as storm mode transitions to MCS overnight into NE. ...KY/TN into western PA... Areas of storms may be ongoing Monday morning over parts of western KY and TN, and these would move into a destabilizing air mass during the day. As such, a few damaging gusts may occur assuming stronger instability develops ahead this potential activity. Forecast soundings show modest deep-layer shear around 30 kt, but steep lapse rates and sufficient mean wind to produce mobile cold pools and locally damaging winds. In addition, sporadic marginal hail will be possible with the more cellular activity given cool air aloft. Farther east, additional activity is possible from WV into eastern OH and western PA where heating will steep low-level lapse rates, and colder air aloft will exist near the midlevel temperature gradient. Marginal hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2023 Read more

175
ABPZ20 KNHC 161726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Calvin, located more than 1300 miles east
of Hilo, Hawaii.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form well to the south or
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
several days. Development of this system appears unlikely as it
moves generally west-northwestward over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 15 22:15:24 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 15 22:15:24 UTC 2023.

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC071-152240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAS ANIMAS NMC007-019-021-033-037-047-059-152240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/15/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC071-152240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAS ANIMAS NMC007-019-021-033-037-047-059-152240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX GUADALUPE HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 495 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 152010Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Colorado Northeast New Mexico * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and early evening with a risk for very large hail and damaging wind gusts. The potential for significant damaging winds, possibly in excess of 75 mph, will exist as storm coverage increases later this afternoon. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north of Trinidad CO to 60 miles southwest of Tucumcari NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Bunting Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Jul 2023 20:35:27 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Jul 2023 21:28:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 15 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152033 TCDEP3 Hurricane Calvin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 15 2023 The satellite appearance of Calvin has shown some ill effects today from cooler SSTs and some drier air in its surrounding environment. A 1512 UTC SSMIS 89 GHz passive microwave image of the hurricane showed the eyewall was open to the east, where a dry slot was noted earlier wrapping around that portion of the circulation. Since then, the eye has become a bit warmer and more pronounced in infrared satellite imagery, and some deeper inner-core convection has wrapped around the center. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 77-90 kt. Based on a blend of these data and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is held at 85 kt for this advisory. Weakening is expected during the next few days as the cyclone moves into a drier and more stable air mass over sub-26C SSTs. In fact, model-simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest Calvin could lose most, or briefly all, of its convection once it enters the central Pacific basin. However, the underlying SSTs become slightly warmer between 48-96 h while the deep-layer shear diagnosed by the global models is low to moderate. Therefore, it seems that Calvin could regenerate new bursts of convection on its approach to Hawaii, which is shown by the global and hurricane models. Therefore, the NHC forecast keeps Calvin a tropical cyclone through 96 h. Regardless of its status, the cyclone appears likely to maintain some tropical-storm-force winds in the northern portion of its circulation as it approaches Hawaii. The global model fields suggest the system will be close to opening into a trough by or shortly after day 5. The long-term motion of Calvin is westward at 280/14 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion will continue through the forecast period as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge entrenched over the eastern Pacific. Calvin is forecast to cross 140W and enter the central Pacific basin on Monday morning and approach the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday into early Wednesday. The various track models continue to bring Calvin near or over the Big Island of Hawaii, but exactly where it will track relative to the island is still unclear given the cross-track spread noted at day 3 and beyond. The updated NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly faster than the previous one, but otherwise very little change was made. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Calvin is forecast to move across the central Pacific Ocean and approach the Hawaiian Islands early next week. It is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts given uncertainties in the track, intensity, and structure of Calvin as it approaches the islands. Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.0N 130.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.8N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 19.4N 156.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152033 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 130W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 130W 64 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 135W 34 3 55(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 135W 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 15 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Calvin Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 15 2023 ...CALVIN MOVING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 130.4W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Calvin. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Calvin was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 130.4 West. Calvin is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion at a similar or slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Calvin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CALVIN MOVING WESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN EARLY MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Jul 15 the center of Calvin was located near 15.0, -130.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023 665 WTPZ23 KNHC 152032 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC SAT JUL 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 130.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 130.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 129.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N 139.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N 156.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 164.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains today, where isolated very large hail and significant damaging wind gusts will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms may also be noted from the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region to the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. ...ArklaTex into northern TX... A plume of deep moisture with PWAT over 2.00" remains across the area, and visible imagery shows signs of convection developing from southeast OK into southwest AR. Given strong instability, locally strong downbursts or marginal hail will be possible, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded into southwest AR. Farther west into northern TX, strong heating south of the area of cloudiness is leading to increasing CU fields, and isolated downbursts will be possible with any storms that form in this area as well. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 1566. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... An outflow boundary resulting from overnight storms extended from northeast NM into the southern TX Panhandle this morning, and was continuing to move west towards the higher terrain of northeast NM. Clearing/heating of a moist air mass to the north of this boundary, in combination with mid-level lapse rates of around 8 deg C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Large scale forcing is subtle, but thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains of northeast NM, with storms spreading southeastward toward the TX Panhandle this evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow will result in ample shear for supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with damaging winds becoming increasingly likely as storms congeal into a southeast-moving MCS with time. A small significant hail area has been introduced where initial supercell development is most probable, and a significant wind area has been introduced based on the 12z HREF CAM guidance and where higher confidence exists in 65 kt/75 mph gusts occurring. ...Ohio Valley/Appalachians to Northeast... Broadly cyclonic upper-level flow will persist over much of the eastern U.S. today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop, or diurnally intensify, along and ahead of a cold front as it moves steadily east this afternoon. In addition, somewhat greater coverage is expected in association with a mid-level impulse moving east through KY/TN. A rather broad area will exist of at least moderate MLCAPE and sufficient mid-level flow for some degree of storm organization, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded east across portions the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Where pockets of greater heating can occur, locally higher MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Central Nebraska... Thunderstorms may develop in the 10z-12z time frame Sunday morning within a low-level warm/moist advection regime over central NE. Although some potential for strong storms will exist, have opted not to introduce a Marginal Risk area with this outlook due to concerns regarding the degree of elevated instability. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains today, where isolated very large hail and significant damaging wind gusts will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms may also be noted from the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region to the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. ...ArklaTex into northern TX... A plume of deep moisture with PWAT over 2.00" remains across the area, and visible imagery shows signs of convection developing from southeast OK into southwest AR. Given strong instability, locally strong downbursts or marginal hail will be possible, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded into southwest AR. Farther west into northern TX, strong heating south of the area of cloudiness is leading to increasing CU fields, and isolated downbursts will be possible with any storms that form in this area as well. For more information see forthcoming mesoscale discussion 1566. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... An outflow boundary resulting from overnight storms extended from northeast NM into the southern TX Panhandle this morning, and was continuing to move west towards the higher terrain of northeast NM. Clearing/heating of a moist air mass to the north of this boundary, in combination with mid-level lapse rates of around 8 deg C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg by afternoon. Large scale forcing is subtle, but thunderstorm development is expected over the mountains of northeast NM, with storms spreading southeastward toward the TX Panhandle this evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow will result in ample shear for supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with damaging winds becoming increasingly likely as storms congeal into a southeast-moving MCS with time. A small significant hail area has been introduced where initial supercell development is most probable, and a significant wind area has been introduced based on the 12z HREF CAM guidance and where higher confidence exists in 65 kt/75 mph gusts occurring. ...Ohio Valley/Appalachians to Northeast... Broadly cyclonic upper-level flow will persist over much of the eastern U.S. today. Thunderstorms are expected to develop, or diurnally intensify, along and ahead of a cold front as it moves steadily east this afternoon. In addition, somewhat greater coverage is expected in association with a mid-level impulse moving east through KY/TN. A rather broad area will exist of at least moderate MLCAPE and sufficient mid-level flow for some degree of storm organization, and the Marginal Risk has been expanded east across portions the mid-Atlantic and northeast states. Where pockets of greater heating can occur, locally higher MLCAPE and steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk for damaging wind gusts. ...Central Nebraska... Thunderstorms may develop in the 10z-12z time frame Sunday morning within a low-level warm/moist advection regime over central NE. Although some potential for strong storms will exist, have opted not to introduce a Marginal Risk area with this outlook due to concerns regarding the degree of elevated instability. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track. No changes were made. ..Marsh.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Northwest on Sunday. At the surface a lee trough will develop to the east of the Cascades. ...Columbia Basin Vicinity... Mid-level winds will increase through the day across Oregon/Washington. The mid-level jet, however, will not overspread the region until late Sunday into Monday morning. During the afternoon, surface winds will increase in the lee of the Cascades as the surface trough deepens. Winds will be the strongest within the Cascade gaps and Columbia Gorge. Winds in these locations could reach 15-20 mph (locally higher) with winds becoming lighter into the Columbia Basin itself. RH will fall to 15-20%. A few hours of elevated fire weather are expected within the terrain features with locally elevated conditions possible within the Basin. ...Northern Nevada... With mid-level flow increasing from the south/southwest, a period of marginally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible within northern Nevada. Fuels are not critically dry at present and, given the relatively weak winds, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track. No changes were made. ..Marsh.. 07/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Northwest on Sunday. At the surface a lee trough will develop to the east of the Cascades. ...Columbia Basin Vicinity... Mid-level winds will increase through the day across Oregon/Washington. The mid-level jet, however, will not overspread the region until late Sunday into Monday morning. During the afternoon, surface winds will increase in the lee of the Cascades as the surface trough deepens. Winds will be the strongest within the Cascade gaps and Columbia Gorge. Winds in these locations could reach 15-20 mph (locally higher) with winds becoming lighter into the Columbia Basin itself. RH will fall to 15-20%. A few hours of elevated fire weather are expected within the terrain features with locally elevated conditions possible within the Basin. ...Northern Nevada... With mid-level flow increasing from the south/southwest, a period of marginally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible within northern Nevada. Fuels are not critically dry at present and, given the relatively weak winds, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind is possible from the central Plains eastward into Illinois. Isolated strong storms will be possible over the Northeast. ...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong upper cyclone will remain over much of Ontario and into the Great Lakes, with strong northwest flow over much of the area extending southwestward into the central Plains. Cool temperatures aloft will also accompany this regime, with 500 mb temperatures to -10 C as far south as I-70. A leading meridional upper wave will eject northeastward across New England during the day, enhancing shear over New England. However, temperatures aloft will be relatively warm. Counteracting this warmth aloft will be robust low-level moisture with dewpoints firmly in the 70s F. Deep-layer southerly winds will maintain lift through warm advection processes, while enhancing low-level shear ahead of an elongated surface trough extending southward into VA/NC. To the west, a more prominent wave will rotate southeastward across the upper MS valley and into parts of IL, IN and Lower MI, with a notable increase in lift/differential divergence. Moisture ahead of the wind shift from KS into IA will not be as robust as previous days, but steep lapse rates will counteract this negative factor and likely result in scattered severe hail or wind. ...Central Plains eastward into IL... Early day storms are forecast over parts of southeast NE, and outflows will likely accompany this activity. Strong heating will combine with the cool air aloft ahead of this activity to either reinvigorate these storms or more likely produce new storms, especially extending southwestward into KS along I-70. Here, moderate instability as well as lengthy, straight hodographs will favor cells capable of hail initially, with merging outflow producing damaging gusts. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Other sporadic hail cores are possible farther east into IA/MO/IL, where shear will favor cellular mode with 40 kt deep-layer shear. ...Much of the Northeast... Areas of rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from VA northward into NY and southern New England with bands of convection possible oriented SSW to NNE. Given the long duration of storms throughout the period, chances for locally strong gusts or even a brief/weak tornado have been extended eastward into southern New England where high dewpoints along with marginal 0-1 SRH up to 100 m2/s2 may support transient areas of rotation within the more prolonged bands/zones of convection. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind is possible from the central Plains eastward into Illinois. Isolated strong storms will be possible over the Northeast. ...Synopsis... An unseasonably strong upper cyclone will remain over much of Ontario and into the Great Lakes, with strong northwest flow over much of the area extending southwestward into the central Plains. Cool temperatures aloft will also accompany this regime, with 500 mb temperatures to -10 C as far south as I-70. A leading meridional upper wave will eject northeastward across New England during the day, enhancing shear over New England. However, temperatures aloft will be relatively warm. Counteracting this warmth aloft will be robust low-level moisture with dewpoints firmly in the 70s F. Deep-layer southerly winds will maintain lift through warm advection processes, while enhancing low-level shear ahead of an elongated surface trough extending southward into VA/NC. To the west, a more prominent wave will rotate southeastward across the upper MS valley and into parts of IL, IN and Lower MI, with a notable increase in lift/differential divergence. Moisture ahead of the wind shift from KS into IA will not be as robust as previous days, but steep lapse rates will counteract this negative factor and likely result in scattered severe hail or wind. ...Central Plains eastward into IL... Early day storms are forecast over parts of southeast NE, and outflows will likely accompany this activity. Strong heating will combine with the cool air aloft ahead of this activity to either reinvigorate these storms or more likely produce new storms, especially extending southwestward into KS along I-70. Here, moderate instability as well as lengthy, straight hodographs will favor cells capable of hail initially, with merging outflow producing damaging gusts. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Other sporadic hail cores are possible farther east into IA/MO/IL, where shear will favor cellular mode with 40 kt deep-layer shear. ...Much of the Northeast... Areas of rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from VA northward into NY and southern New England with bands of convection possible oriented SSW to NNE. Given the long duration of storms throughout the period, chances for locally strong gusts or even a brief/weak tornado have been extended eastward into southern New England where high dewpoints along with marginal 0-1 SRH up to 100 m2/s2 may support transient areas of rotation within the more prolonged bands/zones of convection. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2023 Read more