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WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0429 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 429 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 012055Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Central and southern Indiana North-central Kentucky * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Developing MCS over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will spread east-northeast across the Wabash and Lower Ohio Valley. Damaging winds should be the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles east southeast of Indianapolis IN to 55 miles northwest of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 427...WW 428... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Jul 2023 20:36:44 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Jul 2023 21:22:51 GMT

MD 1377 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Areas affected...portions of southern/central IL into southern/central IN and western/central KY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427... Valid 012035Z - 012230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and large hail threat will continue across portions of southern Illinois into western Kentucky and southwest Indiana the next few hours. An increasing severe risk is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening downstream from WW 427 and a new watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Intense, severe-warned cells are ongoing across southern IL and parts of western KY. MRMS MESH has indicated hail between 1-2 inch in diameter is possible with these storms as they track generally eastward across a moderate unstable airmass. Effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt are noted in objective guidance and regional VWP data. Over the past 30 minutes or so, more discrete cells over southern IL appear to be trying to organize into more of a forward propagating cluster. Damaging wind potential will increase with any upscale development with this activity. Further north and east of WW 427 across east-central IL into parts of central/southern IN and west-central KY, airmass recovery after morning convection appears to be well underway. Low-level inhibition has most eroded as temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s with low/mid 70s dewpoints. The gradient of stronger instability is oriented across this area, and favorable shear is expected to persist as a midlevel shortwave impulse continues to eject across MO and into IL this evening. This should support a continued severe thunderstorm risk into this evening, and a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is likely. ..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 37218688 37548844 37818938 38038954 38108957 38948946 39468913 39798851 39648686 39308556 39128522 38918508 38598507 38128521 37868530 37358574 37178637 37218688 Read more

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012035 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Adrian continues to weaken. The low-level center is decoupled from a limited area of active convection over the western portion of the circulation. Adrian is passing just to the north of Clarion Island, and a Mexican Navy automated weather station has recently reported sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a gust of 48 kt. The objective and subjective satellite estimates have continued to fall this afternoon, with T3.0 Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB along with ADT, AiDT, and SATCON objective estimates between 47-53 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. The storm is still moving west-northwestward at around 300/6 kt. A gradual turn toward the west is expected over the next couple of days as the vortex spins down and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. Further weakening is expected due to continued easterly shear, decreasing SSTs, and a drier and more stable air mass along the forecast track. The official NHC forecast now shows Adrian degenerating to a remnant low in 24 h, with dissipation early next week. This updated forecast is very similar to the previous one with no other notable changes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.7N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.1N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.6N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0600Z 19.9N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1800Z 20.0N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 478 FOPZ11 KNHC 012035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 382 WTPZ21 KNHC 012034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012023 2100 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 115.0W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 115.0W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.1N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.6N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 383 WTPZ31 KNHC 012034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012023 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 01 2023 ...ADRIAN PASSING JUST NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 115.0W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 115.0 West. Adrian is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the west during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Adrian is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A Mexican Navy automated weather station on Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 55 mph (89 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...ADRIAN PASSING JUST NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 1 the center of Adrian was located near 18.7, -115.0 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST TEXAS PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may gradually consolidate and organize across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valley late this afternoon, accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes into this evening. ...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to better account for the progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic features and associated trends concerning instability. An increase in thunderstorm development is ongoing across east central and southeast Missouri, aided by forcing associated with a smaller-scale perturbation/speed maximum within positively-tilted larger-scale mid-level troughing gradually shifting east of the central Great Plains. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear beneath a belt of 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow across southeastern Missouri into south central Illinois, it still seems probable that upscale growing convection will become increasingly organized while propagating east of the Mississippi River late this afternoon. Easterly near-surface inflow into updrafts will be characterized by seasonably moist air with moderately large CAPE across southeastern Missouri through southern Illinois, Indiana and western Kentucky. Farther east, toward the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau, prior convective outflow is maintaining considerable influence and potential for substantive destabilization to maintain activity remains more unclear. ..Kerr.. 07/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023/ ...Mid MS/OH Valleys... A modestly amplified shortwave trough over western NE/KS will progress into IA/MO by tonight, as embedded, convectively enhanced perturbations rotate around its southern and eastern periphery. One such perturbation near the Ozark Plateau will aid in scattered thunderstorm development as it impinges on the Mid-MS Valley. This activity will form within a pronounced differential boundary-layer heating/buoyancy gradient amid large MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in the undisturbed warm sector over the Mid-South. Within a belt of 35-45 kt mid-level west-southwesterlies, initial supercells/clusters congealing into a forward-propagating linear MCS appears probable. Large hail will be possible, mainly early, but the predominant threat should be damaging wind swaths towards the central OH Valley. A couple of embedded tornadoes will also be possible, mainly focused along/just north of the residual outflow boundary arcing west from ongoing convection over central KY. ...Permian Basin... Weak convergence along a convectively enhanced cold front, in combination with a narrow corridor of stronger boundary-layer heating between the front and thicker clouds within the southern-stream closer to the Big Bend, should yield a rather confined corridor of MLCAPE approaching 2500 J/kg in the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be modest and convection will probably be slow-moving to the south-southeast but a few severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail will be possible. ...Lee of the central/southern Appalachians... There is some potential for intensification of isolated to scattered storms along residual outflows and a weak surface trough just east of the Blue Ridge, as the low levels warm this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak north of southwest VA, while diffluent mid-level flow in the lee of the central Appalachians will generally hold effective bulk shear below 25 kt north of southwest VA. Localized damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail will be the main threats. ...PA/NY... Subtle/embedded perturbations will move over the lower Great Lakes region today, around the southern periphery of the shortwave trough centered on the Ontario-Quebec border. Surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dew points in the 60s will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg east of the influence of the Lower Great Lakes. Mid-level lapse rates will not be steep, but some modest enhancement to mid-upper flow could be sufficient for a few semi-organized clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage for a few hours centered on late afternoon. ...Southern MT to ND... Though forcing for ascent will be weak, at least isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this afternoon/evening from edge of the higher terrain in southern MT northeastward along a weak pre-frontal trough into ND. Surface heating/deep mixing will drive inverted-V profiles with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Weak flow supports relatively slow-moving cells/clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, at least locally Elevated conditions are possible across central and eastern Montana into western North Dakota tomorrow afternoon as a deepening mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies. However, fuel receptiveness does not appear robust enough on a widespread basis to warrant Elevated highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will be centered over the southern Great Basin, supporting a continuation of hot/dry conditions across much of the West. Along the southeastern periphery of the ridge, modest downslope flow off the Mogollon Rim could favor breezy surface winds over parts of southern Arizona -- where a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer (single-digit RH) is expected. Given increasingly dry fuels over the area, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Farther north, a subtle shortwave impulse will advance southeastward across the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies, aiding in diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and around 0.4-0.5 inch PW will favor dry thunderstorms capable of isolated lightning-induced ignitions over parts of the Great Basin into the central/southern Rockies. However, marginal fuels over this region cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Jul 2023 18:13:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Jul 2023 18:13:19 GMT

Issued at 1800 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 011812 PWSEP2 REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 1800 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 AT 1800Z THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 011812 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Beatriz Special Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023 ...BEATRIZ DISSIPATES OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 106.2W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings for the west-central coast of mainland Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite-derived wind data indicate the Beatriz no longer has a surface circulation and has dissipated. At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the remnants of Beatriz were located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 106.2 West. The remnants are moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), but are expected to slow down and meander over the mouth of the Gulf of California during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Monday, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches, is expected across portions of southern and western Mexico from Colima northwest to Sinaloa and Durango in association with the remnants of Beatriz. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Beatriz are expected to diminish along the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants of Beatriz please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg

...BEATRIZ DISSIPATES OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 the center of Beatriz was located near 20.7, -106.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1800 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 685 WTPZ22 KNHC 011810 TCMEP2 REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022023 1800 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 106.2W AT 01/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 106.2W AT 01/1800Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 106.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 011807 TCDEP2 Remnants Of Beatriz Special Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 1200 PM MDT Sat Jul 01 2023 A just-received ASCAT pass indicates that Beatriz has dissipated. There is no longer a surface circulation, and the maximum winds are around 25 kt, associated with a squall line that recently moved northward across Las Islas Marias. As a result, this special advisory will be the last advisory on this system. The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings along the coast of west-central Mexico and Las Islas Marias. For additional information on the remnants, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1800Z 20.7N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ 12H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

018
ABPZ20 KNHC 011759
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Adrian, located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and
has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Beatriz, located
near the coast of west-central Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form several hundred miles off
the coast of southern Mexico during the latter part of next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND AND DELAWARE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO... PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND EASTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and a couple of evolving clusters of storms, will pose a risk for severe wind and hail in a corridor from the Mid South and lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley east-northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region Sunday through Sunday night ...Synopsis... Models indicate that split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America may become more amplified into and through this period. Within this regime, significant cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed later today through Sunday across the Canadian Prairies, with a trailing cold front advancing southeast of the international border, across much of the Northwest and northern Rockies into the northern Great Plains by 12Z Monday. While mid-level ridging builds downstream of the cyclone, across northwestern Ontario, southern Hudson and James Bays into adjacent portions of Quebec, positively tilted mid-level troughing in a branch to the south is forecast to shift slowly east-northeastward across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. It appears that this will be accompanied by a broad weak surface low, migrating along a diffuse surface frontal zone (initially extending from the northern Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the southern Great Plains), and developing surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. ...Mid Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into Ark-La-Tex... Along and just south of the weak frontal zone, the boundary-layer may be initially impacted by a considerable amount of remnant convective outflow. How the associated outflow boundaries evolve through midday Sunday remains unclear, but insolation along and to their south likely will contribute to steepening low-level lapse and moderate to large CAPE in the presence of seasonably high moisture content. This appears likely to occur beneath a belt of 30-40+ kt (perhaps stronger where augmented by prior convection) west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, which may prove conducive to renewed strong and organizing convective development Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated supercell structures are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, before potentially damaging wind gusts with evolving clusters becomes the more prominent hazard. ...High Plains... A mid-level perturbation digging within modest to weak northwest flow probably will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development to the lee of the southern Rockies Sunday afternoon and evening. Aided mostly by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, a couple of storms may pose a risk for severe hail and wind. ...North Dakota/Minnesota... Large mixed-layer CAPE may develop within pre-frontal surface troughing near the state border vicinity by late Sunday afternoon. However, stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent and shear may remain mostly displaced to the north of the international border, resulting in mainly highly conditional severe weather potential for this period. ...Southern Montana... Moistening post-frontal upslope flow might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support isolated supercell development to the north of the Big Horn Basin, perhaps aided by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm advection late Sunday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 07/01/2023 Read more

A Christmas tree grower in Cross Plains reported that 30% of the trees that were planted this spring had already died from lack of rain. Trees planted last year were not growing as much as they normally would. NBC15 (Madison, Wis.), June 26, 2023